Wake up to a morning of buangz.... WJ, NYSE, DJ, NESDAQ, NIKKEI all trade in the negative zone...... Although FED cut rates by Quarter % pts but market like no interest as expect to have more cut! Haizzz...........
Economy really slowing meh?
Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares
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Wake up to a morning of buangz.... WJ, NYSE, DJ, NESDAQ, NIKKEI all trade in the negative zone...... Although FED cut rates by Quarter % pts but market like no interest as expect to have more cut! Haizzz...........
Economy really slowing meh?
Morgan Stanley issues full US recession alert
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/ma...A1YourView&xml=/money/2007/12/11/cnusa111.xml
:sweat:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/ma...A1YourView&xml=/money/2007/12/11/cnusa111.xml
:sweat:
the sub-prime issue is a major issue which will drag all sectors down. when banks are asking the umbrellas to b returned, all will b soaked.
a common advice often heard in times of finiancial turbulence: cut loss and cash out. then lie low and wait for for the sun to rise again in a yr or 2. cash is king in a recession.
so, raincool, what's your advice?
a common advice often heard in times of finiancial turbulence: cut loss and cash out. then lie low and wait for for the sun to rise again in a yr or 2. cash is king in a recession.
so, raincool, what's your advice?
collect cash as much as possible, do not collect shares, clear credit and loans as much as possible.
when recession kicks in, buy shares and property at dirt cheap prices.
Morgan Stanley Asia chairman says US heading for recession
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/317680/1/.html
now i understand why we can be affected. :think: it is still back to the supply and demand theory of economics
"Growth in Asia was export led, with the American consumer often the "end game" of the Asian growth machine, he said.
The US is a 9.5 trillion US dollar consumer. China is a 1.0 trillion US dollar consumer. India's a 650 billion US dollar consumer," he said.
"Mathematically, it is almost impossible for the young dynamic consumers of China and India to fill the void that would be left by what is likely to be a significant shortfall of US consumer demand."
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/317680/1/.html
now i understand why we can be affected. :think: it is still back to the supply and demand theory of economics
"Growth in Asia was export led, with the American consumer often the "end game" of the Asian growth machine, he said.
The US is a 9.5 trillion US dollar consumer. China is a 1.0 trillion US dollar consumer. India's a 650 billion US dollar consumer," he said.
"Mathematically, it is almost impossible for the young dynamic consumers of China and India to fill the void that would be left by what is likely to be a significant shortfall of US consumer demand."
Guys, question...
How can a person in SG invest in US stocks directly (ala eTrade)? I used to have an eTrade account but it no longer is valid since I no longer have a US address to my name and I want to buy/trade some stocks in the US market.
Thanks...
How can a person in SG invest in US stocks directly (ala eTrade)? I used to have an eTrade account but it no longer is valid since I no longer have a US address to my name and I want to buy/trade some stocks in the US market.
Thanks...
watch out for oil related stocks, pick them when they are cheap.
crude oil will hit $100 sooner or later... not in 2007 ? then 2008, those working in oil industry getting big big bonus this year again.
crude oil will hit $100 sooner or later... not in 2007 ? then 2008, those working in oil industry getting big big bonus this year again.
looks like there is no new year rally due to forcasts of slower growth in USA.
if this slowdown is not handled properly, it will turn out to be a recession... (if when it happens, u can buy lenses and cameras at cheap bargains)
if this slowdown is not handled properly, it will turn out to be a recession... (if when it happens, u can buy lenses and cameras at cheap bargains)
Outlook for Asian tigers unsteady
The latest economic data from South Korea and Singapore suggests that the slowdown in US economic growth could be starting to hit East Asia.
South Korea's exports increased by a worse-than-expected 15.5% to $33.25bn (£16.8bn) in December, as it saw its first monthly trade deficit since 2003.
Separately, Singapore's economy shrank in the past three months for the first time in five years.
Both countries are heavily reliant upon US demand for their goods.
A slump in Singapore's semiconductor exports contributed to the country's economy contracting by an annualised 3.2% in the October-to-December period, down from an expansion of 4.4% in its previous quarter.
Emerging market support?
With higher interest rates causing chaos in the US housing market and continued strains in global credit markets, pressures on the finances of the American household are expected to get worse.
Analysts say this is likely to mean a cutback in discretionary spending on goods produced in Asia, mainly electronics and cars.
Yet many remain reasonably upbeat that solid economic growth in India, China and the Middle East will help support East Asian trade from a US slowdown in 2008.
"A slower US economy should hurt in the first half, although solid exports to the emerging markets such as China are expected to keep the growth rate at two digits," said Park Sang-Hyun, chief economist at CJ Investment & Securities in South Korea.
The latest economic data from South Korea and Singapore suggests that the slowdown in US economic growth could be starting to hit East Asia.
South Korea's exports increased by a worse-than-expected 15.5% to $33.25bn (£16.8bn) in December, as it saw its first monthly trade deficit since 2003.
Separately, Singapore's economy shrank in the past three months for the first time in five years.
Both countries are heavily reliant upon US demand for their goods.
A slump in Singapore's semiconductor exports contributed to the country's economy contracting by an annualised 3.2% in the October-to-December period, down from an expansion of 4.4% in its previous quarter.
Emerging market support?
With higher interest rates causing chaos in the US housing market and continued strains in global credit markets, pressures on the finances of the American household are expected to get worse.
Analysts say this is likely to mean a cutback in discretionary spending on goods produced in Asia, mainly electronics and cars.
Yet many remain reasonably upbeat that solid economic growth in India, China and the Middle East will help support East Asian trade from a US slowdown in 2008.
"A slower US economy should hurt in the first half, although solid exports to the emerging markets such as China are expected to keep the growth rate at two digits," said Park Sang-Hyun, chief economist at CJ Investment & Securities in South Korea.
China December Trade Surplus Narrows as Exports Cool
By Li Yanping
Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- China's trade surplus narrowed for a second month as export growth slowed, signaling that the fastest economic expansion in 13 years may have peaked.
The surplus for December shrank to $22.7 billion from $26.2 billion in November, the Chinese customs bureau said in a statement on its Web site today, lower than the $24.4 billion median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Exports grew at the slowest pace in two years, indicating that recent yuan gains, the cooling global expansion and cuts to export-tax rebates on polluting industries are beginning to bite. For 2007, the trade gap surged 48 percent to a record $262.2 billion, giving U.S. and European officials ammunition to keep calling for faster appreciation of the yuan.
``Slower export growth may help China achieve a soft landing,'' said Wang Tao, head of economics and strategy for Greater China at Bank of America Corp. in Beijing. ``China's economic expansion may have peaked last year.''
Shipments rose 21.7 percent in December to $114.4 billion, compared with last month's 22.8 percent and the slowest since December 2005 excluding distortions from Lunar New Year holidays in January and February.
After the figures were released, the yuan remained near the highest since a dollar peg was scrapped in 2005. The currency was 0.12 percent stronger at 7.2633 per dollar as of 4.23 p.m. in Shanghai, heading for its fifth weekly gain. The CSI 300 Index of shares rose 0.5 percent to the highest since Oct. 17.
The yuan advanced 7 percent against the U.S. dollar in 2007, twice as fast as in 2006, partly because the central bank boosted interest rates to a nine-year high.
Lenovo's Computer Sales
Shares of Lenovo Group Ltd., which bought IBM Corp.'s personal computer business in 2005, slumped 23 percent in Hong Kong this week on concern slowing global growth will cut demand.
Television sales at TCL Multimedia Technology Holdings Ltd., a unit of China's biggest consumer electronics maker, slumped 33 percent in November from a year earlier.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet led teams to China over the past two months pressing China to let the yuan rise further and ease trade tensions.
``Pressure on China to let its currency appreciate faster won't stop because the surplus is still getting bigger,'' said Xing Zhiqiang, an economist at China International Capital Corp. in Beijing. Xing expects the yuan to rise 10 percent in 2008.
China's economy expanded 11.5 percent in 2007, the fastest pace in 13 years, according to government forecasts. Wang estimates it will grow between 8 percent and 10 percent over the next three to five years.
Polluting Products
``Government measures to curb export growth of energy- consuming and polluting products and to lower import tariffs have effectively curbed further widening of the trade surplus,'' the customs bureau said in a statement on its Web site today. ``Policy adjustments achieved initial results.''
China reduced export-tax incentives twice last year on products including pig iron and nickel. New tax rules to slow exports of some other steel products that took effect on Jan. 1 may cool shipment growth further. Steel-product exports fell 14 percent in December from a year earlier.
The tax measures were, in part, a response to pressure from trading partners. The European Union in November threatened to introduce tariffs to shield producers such as ArcelorMittal.
``Exports will decline further this year as higher taxes make Chinese prices less competitive,'' Liu Yuanrui and Shao Wenzhong, analysts at Changjiang Securities Co., wrote in a report today.
Made in China
Imports climbed 25.7 percent in December to $91.7 billion, maintaining the previous month's 25.3 percent pace of expansion.
Government policy makers last month named inflation and the risk that the economy will overheat as its two main concerns for 2008 and said the People's Bank of China would pursue a ``tight monetary policy.''
The policy is designed to slow the rate at which cash has been funneled into building thousands of factories, many of which may become idle should export demand dwindle too fast.
Policy makers are trying to prevent the economy from overheating in the face of risks that global growth will stall and slash demand for Chinese-made goods.
``If exports slow in China, you'll see a lot of overcapacity, you'll see margins collapse, you'll see deflation and you'll see a lot of non-performing loans,'' said Huang Yiping, chief Asia economist at Citigroup Inc. in Hong Kong.
A 1 percentage point slowdown in the U.S. would trim China's export growth by 4 percentage points and reduce gross domestic product by 0.5 percentage point, according to Ma Jun, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Hong Kong.
Morgan Stanley forecast last month that growth in China's shipments abroad may slow to 16 percent in 2008. Imports will increase 18 percent, the investment bank predicted.
``A U.S. slowdown will hit China's other export markets too -- and that we think will likely have a knock-on impact upon China's own investment growth,'' said Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered Plc in Hong Kong.
By Li Yanping
Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- China's trade surplus narrowed for a second month as export growth slowed, signaling that the fastest economic expansion in 13 years may have peaked.
The surplus for December shrank to $22.7 billion from $26.2 billion in November, the Chinese customs bureau said in a statement on its Web site today, lower than the $24.4 billion median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Exports grew at the slowest pace in two years, indicating that recent yuan gains, the cooling global expansion and cuts to export-tax rebates on polluting industries are beginning to bite. For 2007, the trade gap surged 48 percent to a record $262.2 billion, giving U.S. and European officials ammunition to keep calling for faster appreciation of the yuan.
``Slower export growth may help China achieve a soft landing,'' said Wang Tao, head of economics and strategy for Greater China at Bank of America Corp. in Beijing. ``China's economic expansion may have peaked last year.''
Shipments rose 21.7 percent in December to $114.4 billion, compared with last month's 22.8 percent and the slowest since December 2005 excluding distortions from Lunar New Year holidays in January and February.
After the figures were released, the yuan remained near the highest since a dollar peg was scrapped in 2005. The currency was 0.12 percent stronger at 7.2633 per dollar as of 4.23 p.m. in Shanghai, heading for its fifth weekly gain. The CSI 300 Index of shares rose 0.5 percent to the highest since Oct. 17.
The yuan advanced 7 percent against the U.S. dollar in 2007, twice as fast as in 2006, partly because the central bank boosted interest rates to a nine-year high.
Lenovo's Computer Sales
Shares of Lenovo Group Ltd., which bought IBM Corp.'s personal computer business in 2005, slumped 23 percent in Hong Kong this week on concern slowing global growth will cut demand.
Television sales at TCL Multimedia Technology Holdings Ltd., a unit of China's biggest consumer electronics maker, slumped 33 percent in November from a year earlier.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet led teams to China over the past two months pressing China to let the yuan rise further and ease trade tensions.
``Pressure on China to let its currency appreciate faster won't stop because the surplus is still getting bigger,'' said Xing Zhiqiang, an economist at China International Capital Corp. in Beijing. Xing expects the yuan to rise 10 percent in 2008.
China's economy expanded 11.5 percent in 2007, the fastest pace in 13 years, according to government forecasts. Wang estimates it will grow between 8 percent and 10 percent over the next three to five years.
Polluting Products
``Government measures to curb export growth of energy- consuming and polluting products and to lower import tariffs have effectively curbed further widening of the trade surplus,'' the customs bureau said in a statement on its Web site today. ``Policy adjustments achieved initial results.''
China reduced export-tax incentives twice last year on products including pig iron and nickel. New tax rules to slow exports of some other steel products that took effect on Jan. 1 may cool shipment growth further. Steel-product exports fell 14 percent in December from a year earlier.
The tax measures were, in part, a response to pressure from trading partners. The European Union in November threatened to introduce tariffs to shield producers such as ArcelorMittal.
``Exports will decline further this year as higher taxes make Chinese prices less competitive,'' Liu Yuanrui and Shao Wenzhong, analysts at Changjiang Securities Co., wrote in a report today.
Made in China
Imports climbed 25.7 percent in December to $91.7 billion, maintaining the previous month's 25.3 percent pace of expansion.
Government policy makers last month named inflation and the risk that the economy will overheat as its two main concerns for 2008 and said the People's Bank of China would pursue a ``tight monetary policy.''
The policy is designed to slow the rate at which cash has been funneled into building thousands of factories, many of which may become idle should export demand dwindle too fast.
Policy makers are trying to prevent the economy from overheating in the face of risks that global growth will stall and slash demand for Chinese-made goods.
``If exports slow in China, you'll see a lot of overcapacity, you'll see margins collapse, you'll see deflation and you'll see a lot of non-performing loans,'' said Huang Yiping, chief Asia economist at Citigroup Inc. in Hong Kong.
A 1 percentage point slowdown in the U.S. would trim China's export growth by 4 percentage points and reduce gross domestic product by 0.5 percentage point, according to Ma Jun, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Hong Kong.
Morgan Stanley forecast last month that growth in China's shipments abroad may slow to 16 percent in 2008. Imports will increase 18 percent, the investment bank predicted.
``A U.S. slowdown will hit China's other export markets too -- and that we think will likely have a knock-on impact upon China's own investment growth,'' said Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered Plc in Hong Kong.
WASHINGTON - The unemployment rate leaps to a two-year high, record numbers of people are forced from their homes and Wall Street nose-dives again. Such is the fallout from a housing meltdown that threatens to slingshot the country into a recession.
The big economic question these days is whether the weakening economy will survive the strains or collapse under them.
The odds have grown that the economy will slip into a recession. At the beginning of last year, many economists put that chance at less than 1-in-3; now an increasing number says it has climbed to around 50-50. Goldman Sachs, the biggest investment bank on Wall Street even thinks a recession is inevitable this year.
Hopeful it can be avoided, President Bush and the Democrat-controlled Congress are exploring economic rescue measures, including possible tax rebates. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pledged to lower interest rates as needed.
The idea is to induce people to boost spending, especially on big-ticket items such as homes and cars, and revitalize economic activity.
"The recession gorilla is there. The question is can the Federal Reserve do enough to avert a recession?" asked Brian Bethune, economist at Global Insight. "We think the odds are close to 50 percent that there will be a recession. It is high no question about it."
Much hope rides on the Fed. By dropping rates, it can act quickly faster than Congress or the White House could agree on and deliver an economic boost.
"The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession," Bernanke said last week. "We are forecasting slow growth."
Bernanke signaled that a rate cut would come this month. Many economists believe a key rate, now at 4.25 percent, could fall by as much as one-half of a percentage point. Such a cut would lower the rates that are charged to millions of consumers and businesses for many different types of loans.
Analysts predict the Fed will keep doing that in the months ahead as part of a campaign that started in September, when the central bank cut rates for the first time in four years.
Trying to put the fragile economy back on firm footing is the biggest challenge for Bernanke since taking over the Fed nearly two years ago. His job requires a deft reading of the economy's vital signs and keen insights into what makes people and businesses tick. It is their behavior that shapes the economy. And it is in turbulent times that the Fed chief needs to bolster public and investor confidence.
Still, Wall Street is on edge. The Dow Jones industrials plunged nearly 250 points on Friday. Also, consumer confidence tumbled in early January.
Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services, puts the odds of a recession as high as 40 percent. "There are a lot of headwinds and the economy probably has enough momentum to get through, but when things get rough, there are a lot of ways things could go wrong," Cheney said.
The fear is that people will clamp down on the spending and businesses will put a lid on hiring and capital investment, sending the economy into a tailspin.
By one rough rule of thumb, a recession occurs when there are two consecutive quarters six straight months when the economy shrinks.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, the recognized arbiters for dating recessions, uses a more complicated formula. It takes into account such things as employment and income growth. By that measure, the last recession was in 2001, starting in March and ending in November.
Tax rebates aimed at stimulating the economy were part of Bush's $1.35 trillion in tax cuts in 2001. They were credited with helping to make the recession short and mild.
The current housing slump, made worse by a credit crunch, is weighing heavily on economic activity.
Upcoming reports are expected to show the economy grew at a feeble pace of just 1.5 percent or less in the final three months of last year and will be weak in the first part of 2008. Consumers, whose spending is indispensable to a healthy economy, are expected to have tightened their belts.
High energy prices, weaker home values that make people feel less wealthy, and a deteriorating jobs market all figure into more caution on the part of consumers.
The unemployment rate jumped to 5 percent in December from 4.7 percent, fanning recession fears. It was the biggest one-month gain since October 2001, during a time of massive layoffs in the travel industry after the Sept. 11 attacks.
Lawrence Summers, one of President Clinton's treasury secretaries, said the odds of a recession this year went up after the dismal employment report. He advocates temporary tax cuts and emergency spending. "It is now conventional opinion and many fear that there will be a serious recession," Summers wrote recently in the Financial Times.
Martin Feldstein, who was President Reagan's top economic adviser, and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan have urged greater government intervention. Greenspan recently said the economy is "getting close to stall speed," and Feldstein has said his best guess is that the economy "has not turned down and it is still expanding, but very weakly."
The big economic question these days is whether the weakening economy will survive the strains or collapse under them.
The odds have grown that the economy will slip into a recession. At the beginning of last year, many economists put that chance at less than 1-in-3; now an increasing number says it has climbed to around 50-50. Goldman Sachs, the biggest investment bank on Wall Street even thinks a recession is inevitable this year.
Hopeful it can be avoided, President Bush and the Democrat-controlled Congress are exploring economic rescue measures, including possible tax rebates. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pledged to lower interest rates as needed.
The idea is to induce people to boost spending, especially on big-ticket items such as homes and cars, and revitalize economic activity.
"The recession gorilla is there. The question is can the Federal Reserve do enough to avert a recession?" asked Brian Bethune, economist at Global Insight. "We think the odds are close to 50 percent that there will be a recession. It is high no question about it."
Much hope rides on the Fed. By dropping rates, it can act quickly faster than Congress or the White House could agree on and deliver an economic boost.
"The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession," Bernanke said last week. "We are forecasting slow growth."
Bernanke signaled that a rate cut would come this month. Many economists believe a key rate, now at 4.25 percent, could fall by as much as one-half of a percentage point. Such a cut would lower the rates that are charged to millions of consumers and businesses for many different types of loans.
Analysts predict the Fed will keep doing that in the months ahead as part of a campaign that started in September, when the central bank cut rates for the first time in four years.
Trying to put the fragile economy back on firm footing is the biggest challenge for Bernanke since taking over the Fed nearly two years ago. His job requires a deft reading of the economy's vital signs and keen insights into what makes people and businesses tick. It is their behavior that shapes the economy. And it is in turbulent times that the Fed chief needs to bolster public and investor confidence.
Still, Wall Street is on edge. The Dow Jones industrials plunged nearly 250 points on Friday. Also, consumer confidence tumbled in early January.
Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services, puts the odds of a recession as high as 40 percent. "There are a lot of headwinds and the economy probably has enough momentum to get through, but when things get rough, there are a lot of ways things could go wrong," Cheney said.
The fear is that people will clamp down on the spending and businesses will put a lid on hiring and capital investment, sending the economy into a tailspin.
By one rough rule of thumb, a recession occurs when there are two consecutive quarters six straight months when the economy shrinks.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, the recognized arbiters for dating recessions, uses a more complicated formula. It takes into account such things as employment and income growth. By that measure, the last recession was in 2001, starting in March and ending in November.
Tax rebates aimed at stimulating the economy were part of Bush's $1.35 trillion in tax cuts in 2001. They were credited with helping to make the recession short and mild.
The current housing slump, made worse by a credit crunch, is weighing heavily on economic activity.
Upcoming reports are expected to show the economy grew at a feeble pace of just 1.5 percent or less in the final three months of last year and will be weak in the first part of 2008. Consumers, whose spending is indispensable to a healthy economy, are expected to have tightened their belts.
High energy prices, weaker home values that make people feel less wealthy, and a deteriorating jobs market all figure into more caution on the part of consumers.
The unemployment rate jumped to 5 percent in December from 4.7 percent, fanning recession fears. It was the biggest one-month gain since October 2001, during a time of massive layoffs in the travel industry after the Sept. 11 attacks.
Lawrence Summers, one of President Clinton's treasury secretaries, said the odds of a recession this year went up after the dismal employment report. He advocates temporary tax cuts and emergency spending. "It is now conventional opinion and many fear that there will be a serious recession," Summers wrote recently in the Financial Times.
Martin Feldstein, who was President Reagan's top economic adviser, and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan have urged greater government intervention. Greenspan recently said the economy is "getting close to stall speed," and Feldstein has said his best guess is that the economy "has not turned down and it is still expanding, but very weakly."
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