WHATS NEXT FOR M43, after Olympus, what future is left?

[Pitachu]

This is good news for M43 photographers doing streaming.
Yeah of course you can use quite a number of the latest mirrorless cameras for streaming eg. Sony ZV etc but it is going to cost a lot more.
I once saw a group of photographers streaming an event for Epson using 6 cameras and various other control equipment.

Anyway, the good news for M43 users who are not into streaming is this could create a larger demand for M43 lenses and keep the ecology alive and more cost efficient. For those of you who are interested to find out more, can watch the youtube in the link below which gives a good explaination of this new Logitech camera using M43 lenses.

Just announced: new Logitech Mevo MFT streaming camera – 43 Rumors

www.43rumors.com

 

[swifty]

X100 VI preorder numbers needs to be taken with a mountain full of salt.
Total shipping for all cameras per year is under 8m units. That’s across all brands and models. Does it sound feasible at all that there are anywhere near 1m preorders for an X100 VI which will take ~5.5yrs to fulfil if an order was taken today at its 15000/month production rate.
We’re talking about figures that may be even an order of magnitude off and being hyped up by the internet (again).
What’s probably happening is the preorder numbers are being distorted immensely because of bots, the same thing that happens with anything scarce these days such as concert tickets. Scalpers find out what is hot and automate bots to stuff the preordering system to turn a quick profit. Even if it’s genuine buyers, many will place preorders in as many places that will accept them and cancel the rest when a unit is secured.

So whilst the x100 success should be studied and perhaps emulated, let’s be a bit more discerning with the information out there.

 

[Pitachu]

I agree that we should take preorder numbers with a mountain full of salt

But on the hand, the figures don't really matter whether it is 10k, 100K or 1 million pre-orders.

What matters to me is both M43 manufacturers OMDS and Panasonic is missing the boat, when both of them have tiny prime lenses to pair with.
What they need to do is to come up with a slightly more advanced sensor and features on their old tiny bodies.

OMDS could have just put the Panasonic G9ii sensor or OM-1 sensor on the OM-5.
Panasonic could have done the same, update the sensor for the GX8.
All the smaller M43 bodies are about 4 years old that it does not make sense to buy a 4 years old or order camera body / sensor.

I am happy with my OM-1 for it's intended purpose of using large teles to shoot wildlife.
But there are times I just want a tiny but capable camera like the X100v or A7C
as a backup or simple street photos or occasions where a huge camera is not so appropriate.

Hopefully Pana / OMDS will put some resources to look into this tiny camera body market.

X100 VI preorder numbers needs to be taken with a mountain full of salt.
Total shipping for all cameras per year is under 8m units. That’s across all brands and models. Does it sound feasible at all that there are anywhere near 1m preorders for an X100 VI which will take ~5.5yrs to fulfil if an order was taken today at its 15000/month production rate.
We’re talking about figures that may be even an order of magnitude off and being hyped up by the internet (again).
What’s probably happening is the preorder numbers are being distorted immensely because of bots, the same thing that happens with anything scarce these days such as concert tickets. Scalpers find out what is hot and automate bots to stuff the preordering system to turn a quick profit. Even if it’s genuine buyers, many will place preorders in as many places that will accept them and cancel the rest when a unit is secured.

So whilst the x100 success should be studied and perhaps emulated, let’s be a bit more discerning with the information out there.

 

[swifty]

I agree that we should take preorder numbers with a mountain full of salt

But on the hand, the figures don't really matter whether it is 10k, 100K or 1 million pre-orders.

What matters to me is both M43 manufacturers OMDS and Panasonic is missing the boat, when both of them have tiny prime lenses to pair with.
What they need to do is to come up with a slightly more advanced sensor and features on their old tiny bodies.

OMDS could have just put the Panasonic G9ii sensor or OM-1 sensor on the OM-5.
Panasonic could have done the same, update the sensor for the GX8.
All the smaller M43 bodies are about 4 years old that it does not make sense to buy a 4 years old or order camera body / sensor.

I am happy with my OM-1 for it's intended purpose of using large teles to shoot wildlife.
But there are times I just want a tiny but capable camera like the X100v or A7C
as a backup or simple street photos or occasions where a huge camera is not so appropriate.

Hopefully Pana / OMDS will put some resources to look into this tiny camera body market.

Whilst I agree m43 are missing an opportunity in the small and capable sector, and I’ve already previously wrote how I feel about OMDS needing to push out their flagship sensor into other models and the missed opportunities in their M.Zuiko premium series of lenses.
But I think the X100 phenomena is something else. It’s a discreet non-system camera and up until fairly recently the only retro game in town except for Fuji system cameras.
So x100 could be appealing to every other brand owners without needing to think about supporting another system if they bought the camera. It’s much easier to buy an X100 than to learn about the Fuji X-system and figure exactly which model and lenses to pair it with.
I’d argue OMDS will have a bigger hit putting the OM1 sensor into a very high performance rugged compact (not ILC) that can be a companion for every other brand owner. Nobody makes a compact that performs anywhere near flagship ILC levels and I think people would love one. And if it’s a discreet non-ILC model, other brand owners are much more likely to sample/try it than if it’s a system camera.

 

[Pitachu]

Fujifilm put their top of the line 40mp sensor from their XT-5 into the X100vi.
That is part of the attraction.
So it is ok that Panasonic put their 26mp sensor from the G9mk2 and OM put their OM-1 sensor to make it sexy

Whilst I agree m43 are missing an opportunity in the small and capable sector, and I’ve already previously wrote how I feel about OMDS needing to push out their flagship sensor into other models and the missed opportunities in their M.Zuiko premium series of lenses.
But I think the X100 phenomena is something else. It’s a discreet non-system camera and up until fairly recently the only retro game in town except for Fuji system cameras.
So x100 could be appealing to every other brand owners without needing to think about supporting another system if they bought the camera. It’s much easier to buy an X100 than to learn about the Fuji X-system and figure exactly which model and lenses to pair it with.
I’d argue OMDS will have a bigger hit putting the OM1 sensor into a very high performance rugged compact (not ILC) that can be a companion for every other brand owner. Nobody makes a compact that performs anywhere near flagship ILC levels and I think people would love one. And if it’s a discreet non-ILC model, other brand owners are much more likely to sample/try it than if it’s a system camera.

 

[swifty]

Fujifilm put their top of the line 40mp sensor from their XT-5 into the X100vi.
That is part of the attraction.
So it is ok that Panasonic put their 26mp sensor from the G9mk2 and OM put their OM-1 sensor to make it sexy

Of course it’d be ok, that’s what I’m arguing for.
Fuji were already dominating their segment yet they didn’t hold back on the next iteration and gave it one of its flagship sensors, though I’d argue their 26MP stacked sensor is higher end but perhaps not necessary for the niche the x100 series sits in.
I’m arguing that anyone that wants to compete in this segment shouldn’t hold back, Panasonic or OMDS.

 

[Pitachu]

A Chat with OMDS....

OMDS says it is shifting to become an outdoor company making imaging products. – 43 Rumors

www.43rumors.com

 

[one eye jack]

Although there is no such law in Japan, like Apple these camera companies are potentially shooting themselves in the foot by such practices. Costs for customers go up, not much innovation.

Thread views has crossed 91k.

 

[Pitachu]

I know this thread is on What's next for M43.
Although this article is about X100s, but I felt there is a lot for M43 Manufacturers OMDS & Panasonic and in fact all camera manufacturers to learn from the points highlighted during the interview.

"We wouldn’t be here without the X100”: Yuji Igarashi on where Fujifilm goes next

Following the launch of the X100 VI, we interviewed Fujifilm's Yuji Igarashi and Jun Watanabe about the importance of the series, how they balance stills and video and what's going to drive the industry next.

www.dpreview.com

 

[one eye jack]

I know this thread is on What's next for M43.
Although this article is about X100s, but I felt there is a lot for M43 Manufacturers OMDS & Panasonic and in fact all camera manufacturers to learn from the points highlighted during the interview.

"We wouldn’t be here without the X100”: Yuji Igarashi on where Fujifilm goes next

Following the launch of the X100 VI, we interviewed Fujifilm's Yuji Igarashi and Jun Watanabe about the importance of the series, how they balance stills and video and what's going to drive the industry next.

www.dpreview.com

This is my take of the linked article. It's nothing new to digital photography since day one, autofocus reliability and tracking, build quality and innovative ideas. The engineering problems have improved with powerful processors but the innovation and ideas are still plaguing the industry because of a conformist culture.

Fujifilm's x100 was borned out of the realisation that point and shoot cameras have been replaced with smartphones. You can say it was a lucky move for Fuji. But the rest of the industry are still reluctant to change because they think that dSLR were the cash cow until it was obvious that mirrorless was the only way forward. They are still in the me - too phase each replicating each other's business models.

Then Fuji also realised that as convenient as the smartphones are, they produced the same "conformist" look to their photographic output or sameness no matter the brand of phone. People want to express their INDIVIDUALITY and style which Fuji offered as film simulations and other adjustments available in their cameras. Other manufacturers offered similar features but did not wow their users. It still continues this sameness.

Now the geopolitical tensions and global economic pressures begin to show. 2024 will be a lackluster year for the camera industry. In Singapore already
the warning to the people is...

https://dollarsandsense.sg/business/why-singapore-employees-need-to-be-ready-for-retrenchment-in-2024/

 

[Pitachu]

The other manufacturer that is in tune with the market is Sony. Despite having good sales in its A7R series and 6000 series,
it went on to continue to innovate.

M43 Manufacturers really need to listen to the market and do something.

 

[Pitachu]

Sony, Samsung and Omnivision are rumored to be working on new High Megapixel FT sensors.
Can OM Digital and Panasonic benefit from that?

I would think so, as part of the reason why the development on M43 sensors are so slow is probably because of the relatively low volume.
If mobile phone makers start adopting M43 sensors, the volume would be huge and manufacturers like Sony and Samsung would definitely input more resources into the R&D and if the sensor can also be used for M43, we would be seeing a new wave of M43 camera bodies with higher resolution.

Check out the video to hear about that!

 

[Pitachu]

Yashica has came up with a Mirrorless Interchangeable Lenses Camera that is even smaller than M43.
M43 has an advantage with the smallest very quality market but both Panasonic and OMDS has totally shitfted to the Wildlife niche.
It is time that they take a look at the Portable Vloggers Niche

Loading…

www.kickstarter.com

 

[one eye jack]

Yashica has came up with a Mirrorless Interchangeable Lenses Camera that is even smaller than M43.
M43 has an advantage with the smallest very quality market but both Panasonic and OMDS has totally shitfted to the Wildlife niche.
It is time that they take a look at the Portable Vloggers Niche

Loading…

www.kickstarter.com

Like I said before , a cheap compact camera. Yashica beat m43 to it but it is still not to late for a me - too camera.

 

[ricohflex]

About Mr. Andrea Pizzini's video. I don't think so. Anyway monitor what happens later.
Mr. Andrea Pizzini explained at great length how a bigger sensor would benefit image quality.
He was saying how nice it would be if mobile phones has MFT sensors instead of 1 inch sensors.

Well all his points serve to explain why Full Frame sensor would be preferable to MFT. Thanks very much.

He mentioned a few companies that may make big Megapixel MFT sensors. Such as jumping from 20MP to 44MP or 108 MP. Hot air only.
Monitor what happens later. Do note that any scientific advance that can apply to MFT sensors would likewise be possible on Full Frame sensors.
Meaning by that time Full Frame sensors can be 100MP or 250MP.

His optimism may work in a different way.
If mobile phones have MFT sensors and can take 108MP photos.
The entire MFT camera market may die completely. No one will bother to buy a MFT camera body and lenses.

Mr. Andrea Pizzini missed the most important factor in a user's buying decision.

• It is User Base (a.k.a. Sunken Costs)

If you have 20 lenses in the Nikon Z mount format or Canon RF mount format, you are unlikely to suddenly switch to MFT.
Both Nikon and Canon have adapters (FTZ II + EF to RF) that allow them to use pre-existing lenses in the Nikon range and Canon EOS EF range.

 

[ricohflex]

About the Micro Mirrorless Yashica. It has a 1/2.3 inch sensor.
The body is not that much smaller than a Lumix GM1 or Sony ZV-1
Is it still at kickstarter stage?

This thing will FAIL.

 

[one eye jack]

Rob Trek echoes my sentiments about OMDS that it has missed opportunities like the retro trend. No there will be no Pen F 2 which he still champions. The problem with OMDS is it's Japanese with it's peculiar mindset. Like Rob it needs to take risks and make innovative and exciting cameras. Like me and Rob , he says the photography hobby consists of enthusiasts and professionals. The rest has gone to smartphones. OMDS needs an overhaul as a camera company.

 

[one eye jack]

Ricohflex I'm sorry I have to debunk fullframe cameras because times have changed or rather the truth has been ignored by camera companies because of business agendas. The truth of the matter is that since the days of 35mm film days it's the fullframe lenses that the camera companies have developed for professional use that has kept companies from developing apsc lenses and the purposely limit them just to promote fullframe. They only need to port the fullframe design to digital. The main complaint of APSC users is the lack of suitable lenses. But not m43 which have designed the complete range for professional use.

Fullframe myths:
1. Better quality image, mainly the noise level in low light scenes. The myth is "bigger sensors" have lower noise than crop or apsc or m43 sensor. This was valid when digital cameras begin to replace film cameras ( not that film cameras are worst ) but to convince people to switch to digital they intentionally design to mimic the look of film but as time went on until today camera companies try the sell digital cameras by putting more pixels or resolution into the sensor.

2. Resolution: The myth is with high resolution there is more details to be seen. This is true to the extent that it allows the photo to be cropped to the same level as apsc like bird and wildlife, sports action. But in realty there is a compromise and that is if you want high resolution then dynamic range takes a hit!

3. Since the fullframe range of lenses are already developed, camera companies purposely limit the number of APSC lenses to persuade or push photographers to fullframe because to cater to professionals
It makes sense for camera companies to save R&D on APSC lenses. So it's the classic economies of scale in practice.

4. The real determinant of low light performance is actually PIXEL SIZE not resolution. There is a sweet spot between megapixels and image quality. Because there is a trade off which I will explain later camera companies have always MAINTAINED for fullframe which is high resolution between 45mp - 61mp and 24mp for entry level fullframe!

Now think for a moment, why have sports/action cameras is a "low" resolution of around 20mp.? It's because of pixel size. Eg. Nikon D5, D6, Canon 1dx series. The bigger the pixel or light bucket or well the more light it can gather or take in. And yes the myth of bigger sensor / fullframe is perpetuated when it is completely false!

Let's deal with the science, now because we are talking about equivalent area ( mm square ) of light gathering capability there is a factor to calculate between fullframe and crop sensor. It's roughly for FF to APSC is 2.25 ( 1.5 crop ) or 2.36 for canon ( 1.6 crop ) or 2 for m43.

Now m43 users are clamouring for higher resolution citing 26mp Panasonic sensor or the Sony announced 40mp sensor but do they know what's the equivalent 20mp sensor of OMDS in fullframe terms? Well 20mp multiply by 2 is 40mp fullframe!!! So now you know why OMDS does not want to go higher. There is a limit to light gathering and dynamic range vs resolution for a small sensor. It's engineering compromise. ( Actually, since ff is 4X of m43 it should be 80mp. )

Let's calculate Sony 61mp fullframe equivalent APSC sensor size which is 61 divided by 2.25 = 27.1! Now do you understand why APSC sensor sweet spot is 24 - 26mp! Because if you zoom in 200% both fullframe and APSC have the same resolution or detail.

Now for the shocker Fujifilm APSC equivalent of fullframe , 40 x 2.25 = 90 mp. Fullframe equivalent! Now can you understand why Om series cameras can do 80mp. HDR high Res photo because it is usually interpolated 2X since m43 20mp is equivalent to 40mp fullframe! ( I'm not sure how high Res is done, interpolation is not correct as it cannot provide detail when it's not available there in the first place but more multiple bracketed exposures. )

5. Other factors like SNR ( signal to noise ratio , how raw file is processed ) better firmware is usually put into flagship cameras so APSC cameras cannot compete with higher end cameras, again intentionally by camera companies.

6. Lenses and camera design.

This is the video that is false marketing. Sony a74 file not pushed to equivalent of a7s3. print size. Note: 12mp pixel size is 8.4 microns and 61mp is 5 times smaller or 5X less light gathering capability so how to have better dynamic range even with better firmware. Let's not talk about medium format.

 

[one eye jack]

To prove my point, why not 61mp but only 24mp for Sony A9 MK3?
Dude Pattern still prefer 45mp - 50mp for cropping bird photography. Look at the comment concerning OMDS and Panasonic cameras.

 

[Pitachu]

Well all his points serve to explain why Full Frame sensor would be preferable to MFT. Thanks very much.
He mentioned a few companies that may make big Megapixel MFT sensors. Such as jumping from 20MP to 44MP or 108 MP. Hot air only.
Monitor what happens later. Do note that any scientific advance that can apply to MFT sensors would likewise be possible on Full Frame sensors.
Meaning by that time Full Frame sensors can be 100MP or 250MP.

>>> In all honesty, do you really want to have a 100MP or 250MP camera? If you have been shooting and post processing your photos, you wouldn't want to operate at 100mp or 250mp. Quite a lot of photographers I know (myself included with my 7CR choose to shoot at a lower resolution ie. 26mp instead of the full 61mp) unless it is really needed. Even with my OM-1, I have only used the high resolution mode (80mp) a few times.

His optimism may work in a different way.
If mobile phones have MFT sensors and can take 108MP photos.
The entire MFT camera market may die completely. No one will bother to buy a MFT camera body and lenses.

Mobile phones like Samsung already have 108mp for years. The MFT camera is still alive. Obviously you do not understand on why photographers are using Interchangeable Lens Cameras when all of them have mobile phones.

Mr. Andrea Pizzini missed the most important factor in a user's buying decision.

• It is User Base (a.k.a. Sunken Costs)

If you have 20 lenses in the Nikon Z mount format or Canon RF mount format, you are unlikely to suddenly switch to MFT.
Both Nikon and Canon have adapters (FTZ II + EF to RF) that allow them to use pre-existing lenses in the Nikon range and Canon EOS EF range.

Do you have 20 lenses? Otherwise, don't imagine things. I was manning a Prolab and got to know 100s of photographers. No one have 20 lenses, unless they are collectors. Even when I shoot landscape, portrait, wildlife and macro, I only have about 8 lenses.
And even if I bought them new, I can easily sell them at 70% of the purchase price, losing a max of 30% for using them 3 to 5 years.
(6% depreciation per year). Don't tie yourself down with this sunken cost concept. I lose more on the depreciation of my laptop and mobile phone every 3 years when I change.