The China bubble


UncleFai

Senior Member
Mar 10, 2010
4,447
34
48
Singapore
#2
#3
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-came-close-another-massive-214244302.html

In attempting to create jobs for the population, they started building like there's no tomorrow. Now these apartments are completed, there's no population to occupy them. Ironic isn't it?
The news is a little old or maybe it should be, the world was holding it's breath for this to happen one day soon for the past 2-4 years or so when stories of their Ghost City" came up. In anticipation of super growth the greed factor to cash in on the potential lead to so much over development and not just that, they were in recent years the biggest "devourer" of concrete in the whole world. It is shock and also you have to see in awe how much they built and how fast and how many people have been snapping the property up but they are STILL Vacant up to today. If that bubble burst.. you can say goodby to a lot of the PRC that are invading the tourist market very quickly among other effects. Been waiting for that day to come for sometime now. It will have an effect around the world if that happens..the the property bubble that is.

https://youtu.be/wm7rOKT151Y?list=PLrkf53JeE3SNX-k6RUAGyDSiJEgerIGlR.

https://youtu.be/GpnoPhY1f70

https://youtu.be/0brcZTVde-I

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ei0FpwI1dqg
 

#5
China has consumed more cement in 3.5 years than United States did in 100 years

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/...nited-States-did-in-100-years-says-Bill-Gates

You think they aer building another Great Wall. heheh
They are building some for our wealthy CPF retirees.

China may be the ideal country for Singaporeans to retire to: plenty of land, same language, same culture and same food. :)
 

airfins

Senior Member
Jun 22, 2007
1,624
5
38
Anfield, L4
www.flickr.com
#6
China food is not that same as Singapore food. It's very oily for a start but you can say it's the 2nd closest (Malaysia is #1) compared to SIN food. culture wise you will be in for a shock when you are there. Price of property in big cities are close to SIN price... :)
 

Last edited:

daredevil123

Moderator
Staff member
Oct 25, 2005
21,645
63
48
lil red dot
#7
China food is not that same as Singapore food. It's very oily for a start but you can say it's the 2nd closest (Malaysia is #1) compared to SIN food. culture wise you will be in for a shock when you are there. Price of property in big cities are close to SIN price... :)
And in a few cities, exceed SIN price.
 

Bukitimah

Senior Member
Nov 28, 2010
1,268
6
38
Singapore
#8
Over supply for China for food and housing will not happen in the next 20 years. Unbalance distribution, yes.

In 20 years if everything remains the same. We, singapore will be the one playing catch up.

Like it or not. We are small.
 

daredevil123

Moderator
Staff member
Oct 25, 2005
21,645
63
48
lil red dot
#9
Over supply for China for food and housing will not happen in the next 20 years. Unbalance distribution, yes.

In 20 years if everything remains the same. We, singapore will be the one playing catch up.

Like it or not. We are small.
We are already playing catch up. Lke it or not.
 

#11
In 20 years if everything remains the same. We, singapore will be the one playing catch up.
As long as we keep sending more students than them to MIT, Harvard, Oxbridge, Stanford, UCLA, 北大, 清华 etc. then we'll won't be too far behind. :)
 

donut88

Senior Member
Nov 14, 2008
2,182
5
0
#12
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-came-close-another-massive-214244302.html

In attempting to create jobs for the population, they started building like there's no tomorrow. Now these apartments are completed, there's no population to occupy them. Ironic isn't it?
It will be what Spain just went through. The property bubble burst.

In spain, a lot of developers were too greedy building too many buildings and even airports. They promise commercial benefits to residents and investors.

Bubble burst, many developers went kaput. Many properties and even airports are all empty. I have never heard of ghost airports before until Spain bubbleel burst.

Go google it.
 

donut88

Senior Member
Nov 14, 2008
2,182
5
0
#13
As long as we keep sending more students than them to MIT, Harvard, Oxbridge, Stanford, UCLA, 北大, 清华 etc. then we'll won't be too far behind. :)
They got 1 billion people. How to send more students than them?
 

Nikonzen

Senior Member
Nov 3, 2014
2,570
13
0
48
Oklahoma, USA
#14
They got 1 billion people. How to send more students than them?
Not to mention now the largest economy in the world. A supply of reserves that make Chinese pockets super deep. This ain't no Spain we are talking about here. Spain never had crap to begin with. China is a WAY different tale my friends. Wait about ten years down the line when they get some technical details concerned with manufacturing ironed out...we are going to start seeing some high quality competitive with the best of the best stuff coming from there.
 

#15
#16
Not to mention now the largest economy in the world. A supply of reserves that make Chinese pockets super deep. This ain't no Spain we are talking about here. Spain never had crap to begin with. China is a WAY different tale my friends. Wait about ten years down the line when they get some technical details concerned with manufacturing ironed out...we are going to start seeing some high quality competitive with the best of the best stuff coming from there.
I beg to differ. This is a country so big that it is almost unprecedented to pin it to anything we can compare it to and make an assessment. It can go either way. It can be a big competition to the world to do the world's manufacturing but it can be too big that any problems you don't see in their economy to feed and upgrade itself is another thing. Given the numerous years behind an iron curtain.

Social and economic changes on that scale is hard to even comprehend. The people as a whole in all of China not just looking at the lucky minuscule 'few' that are moving about outside of China making the scene or touring about.

Imagine you're a mayor of a town with 50 people. It's easy for you to single-hand run the town, control the peace, oversee everyone do right and their part to grow as a whole. Now look at being a mayor of 1000 people. Control, monitor and dispel your doctrine starts to be less within control. You see now the need more assistants managers to help compared to your former task of running a 50 people town, Now look at 1 Billion plus people over one of the largest piece of land mass in the world. Anything you want to do can't be done fast, efficient and evenly. Not even talking about the political competition you also possibly face. China's feudal war history is where you find many example when trying to rule over vast land areas. In fact we see that with the rest of the world too. And look at Russia with their iron curtain too.

What's worst is a country that due to communism has not open it's door to the rest of the world but to just a small minority with the rest of their people shut off from the world from growing and evolve. Suddenly the flood gate open about 2 decades ago? I feel we are still in the long stages of teething problems. That's just the tip of the ice berg and I think it's rise to the level you mentioned will be yet many more storming years and maybe another decade or more to come. As it did for the rest of the world going from the industrious period. Problem is, whatever this Goliath goes thru o this phase, it will have impact the rest of us. More so if you are hedging all your bets on China being your opportunity and profit pot.
 

Last edited:
#17
...As it did for the rest of the world going from the industrious period. Problem is, whatever this Goliath goes thru o this phase, it will have impact the rest of us. More so if you are hedging all your bets on China being your opportunity and profit pot.
Your observation is logical, well-founded and succinct.

Almost everything we use is now being manufactured by China.

One day they stop manufacturing you'll wake up without a toothbrush. :bsmilie:
 

#18
Your observation is logical, well-founded and succinct.

Almost everything we use is now being manufactured by China.

One day they stop manufacturing you'll wake up without a toothbrush. :bsmilie:
Actually that is already happening in some product manufacturing types. I have suppliers who are moving or have moved out of China as they are getting expensive or too problematic working with these factories producing their products. European companies I deal with are sending their work to indonesian, India and other Asian countries to do them instead in the last few years.

External world pressure has made the China Govt put up regulations enforcing Chinese factories to treat their workers better, better living conditions, reduce working hours, better pay and incentive has seen a number of factory owners keep coming up with dirty tricks to maintain profit while under those humane regulation. Finding new ways to cutting corners by changing client's product specs, mis-use or copy product designs of clients to make no-brand products to flood the market, steal design ideas or use inferior or alternative ingredients for food manufacturing, lower cost and up profit to keep enjoying a good life. For this sinister owners are mainly those who are the ones you can read about as tourist that are making the news all over the world misbehaving, opening emergency airplane doors for a smoke, deface historical sites around the world, pubic peeing toilet...etc. These are the nouveau riche.

They have still, many more lessons to learn like we did. But a country that size.... it would be a momentous task to change and many are too stuck int heir old ways or want to change since it is working for them so far. Communism was a social engineering which has done more harm then good. Sudden the flood gates are open wide. No one is taking the time to see and learn and then act. They are all just doing whatever comes to mind that works for them. I don't blame the people.. I blame the govt for this and they have not done enough to educate them to be ready to face the world at large. But then again as I said before, this is a BIG COUNTRY with 1 Billion population. How do you control that on that massive scale?

It will take a long while for them to catch up. And worst many of their own successful ones are not sharing what they learn with their less privileged citizen. They want to eat as much of that pie as possible.

To rule a country like that is why they still practice death penalties for corruption for example. They can't use subtly to get people in line. They do that, they have mini revolutions all over the country.
 

Last edited:

Bukitimah

Senior Member
Nov 28, 2010
1,268
6
38
Singapore
#19
One's strength is also his weakness. So they need to be careful too especially to those that will benefits from their fall.

A strong China is good for Asia at large and history has shown they are not an agressor except Japan.

China has closed her doors for dacades before, so it is nothing impossible but not something they would wish for after tasting success.
 

donut88

Senior Member
Nov 14, 2008
2,182
5
0
#20
It will be what Spain just went through. The property bubble burst.

In spain, a lot of developers were too greedy building too many buildings and even airports. They promise commercial benefits to residents and investors.

Bubble burst, many developers went kaput. Many properties and even airports are all empty. I have never heard of ghost airports before until Spain bubbleel burst.

Go google it.
Just like what i predicted about China becoming Spain....... lai liao


https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-came-close-another-massive-214244302.html

(REUTERS/China Daily)

Another giant Chinese real estate developer is in trouble.

Evergrande Real Estate Group, one of the country's largest developers, will receive more than $16 billion in credit lines from Chinese banks, the New York Times reported Tuesday.

As prices fall and housing units remain empty, real estate developers are having trouble paying back debt. Evergrande, while one of China's biggest developers, has also racked up one of the highest levels of debt, much of it from foreign investors.

But according to analysts cited in the article, the billion-dollar lifeline is only a short-term solution as China's housing market continues its downward spiral.

According to the New York Times, Evergrande's debt reached about $24 billion by the end of June, plus another $7 billion in perpetual bonds marked as equity. Company sales last year reached about $20 billion.

Earlier this year, another prominent developer Kaisa Group Holdings defaulted with more than $10 billion in debt and had $2 billion in assets frozen.

The $16.2 billion in credit will come from Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China, and China Minsheng Bank.
 

Top Bottom