Military Discussion : Will there be WAR in Asia ?


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King Tiger

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May 11, 2004
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#1
Working late today, come back home and watch the 11 pm news; and shock to see that North Korea announce the possession of nuclear weapons.

Message from News.

North Korea has a stockpile of nuclear bombs and is building more such weapons, the country's vice foreign minister Kim Gye Gwan said in a US television interview.
"I should say that we have enough nuclear bombs to defend against a US attack," the North Korean official told ABC News when asked how many nuclear bombs it possessed.



 

#3
Will this announcement be a deadly move to draw US into a 2nd Korean War?
Or Total War in Asia, should China and Japan are both drag into it?


The North Korean Generals are not fools, for it have been known that they have studied carefully what happened in Kuwait in 1991, Kosovo in 1999 and Iraq in 2003. They have first hand information on how the Iraqi armed forces got stomped in three weeks and the North Koreans are working hard on tactics that will help them overcome their deficiencies.
 

TMC

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Sep 4, 2004
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#4
Not possible, they use it and China will be the first one to whack them. You think they like to have war at their front porch when their economy is growing? South Korea and Japan will do their best to keep it from boiling over.

By the way, they dun have the guts.
 

#6
Well, the North Koreans can't win. :bsmilie: :bsmilie: :bsmilie: :bsmilie: :bsmilie:
They have no allies and despite having more troops (1.1 million to South Korea's 600,000), tanks (3600 to 2200) and artillery (12,000 to 5,000), they will be doing an open attacking and be facing an modern South Korean Army with U.S. backing. The defenders has huge advantages in Korea, where the 250 kilometer DMZ is heavily fortified in depth. South Korean weapons and equipment are two or three generations more modern than what the North has. Moreover, a decade of economic decline have reduced training in the North. The North does not have the fuel or money for spare parts.
The northerners disadvantages will add up to a very low probability of success.

It's unlikely that the North will be as successful as they were in 1950.
 

Stereobox

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Dec 21, 2003
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#7
it is highly very unlikely north korea would ever use the nuclear weapons against other countries.

more likely scenario is north korea selling the technology to 3rd parties (ie. terrorist organisations w/o the means for nuclear research/testing) or having the nuclear weapons stolen themselves.
 

Hommie

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#8
King Tiger, let play a bigger scenario. The few likely war zone in East Asia is North vs South Korea, North Korea vs Japan, China vs Taiwan, China vs Japan. Its true that China will do anything in its power to stop a war happening in its backward but if push comes to shove, it is likely that China will back North Korea and in a increasely Anti-Us, pro-China President Roh of South Korea shift to the North?

Full scale war, Taiwan will be the first target of China to prevent US and Japanese forces to take advantage of. Taiwan will be a piece of cake for China's military might. US might win on one front but if there is multiple zone attack/defence for US and Japan, from North Korea to Taiwan and Japan(I promise you that there will be thousands of missiles from China and North Korea dropping on to Japan every single day because of US base usage on Japan as a retaliation). We are not counting Russia's involvement in it if she want to........
 

yanyewkay

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#9
mordernization doesn't mean a war would be won. Vietnam were way backdated and the US couldn't subdue them.

There's an agenda why they would annouce to the world they have nuclear weapons. My guess is to provoke other countries to do the "you can have, i also can have" thingy.
 

Hommie

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#10
Somehow, despite my prediction on the difficulty on the hardship US and Japan team faces on multiple war front, I have very little faith in China's weak Navy winning the US Navy and Japanese Navy. Japan 's military spend already the second highest in the world(2nd to US despites its self-defence tag line) very strong and advance.

China got very little chance to control the South China Sea......
 

Hommie

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#11
yanyewkay said:
mordernization doesn't mean a war would be won. Vietnam were way backdated and the US couldn't subdue them.

There's an agenda why they would annouce to the world they have nuclear weapons. My guess is to provoke other countries to do the "you can have, i also can have" thingy.
More like a 'chip' for more aid from US/Japan on the negotiation table.....
 

jsbn

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#14
Hommie said:
Somehow, despite my prediction on the difficulty on the hardship US and Japan team faces on multiple war front, I have very little faith in China's weak Navy winning the US Navy and Japanese Navy. Japan 's military spend already the second highest in the world(2nd to US despites its self-defence tag line) very strong and advance.

China got very little chance to control the South China Sea......
Weak Navy? Dude, never under-estimate another country's armed forces despite how it MAY APPEAR.
 

sbs99

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Jan 17, 2002
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#15
i think all should be ok, if no countries tries to be a bully and forces others to as they say using "benefit of the rest" as an excuse. :nono:
 

dkw

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#16
Hommie said:
King Tiger, let play a bigger scenario. The few likely war zone in East Asia is North vs South Korea, North Korea vs Japan, China vs Taiwan, China vs Japan. Its true that China will do anything in its power to stop a war happening in its backward but if push comes to shove, it is likely that China will back North Korea and in a increasely Anti-Us, pro-China President Roh of South Korea shift to the North?

Full scale war, Taiwan will be the first target of China to prevent US and Japanese forces to take advantage of. Taiwan will be a piece of cake for China's military might. US might win on one front but if there is multiple zone attack/defence for US and Japan, from North Korea to Taiwan and Japan(I promise you that there will be thousands of missiles from China and North Korea dropping on to Japan every single day because of US base usage on Japan as a retaliation). We are not counting Russia's involvement in it if she want to........
No chance that China will back North Korea against the US and Japan. Whatever anti-pathy that exists between China and those 2 countries, the future of China is now in-extricably linked with the global economy and forward looking democracies, not the relic of the North Korean regime, and their leaders know it. Even in the first Korean war, if not for certain moves by the UN forces, China would have stayed out.
 

reachme2003

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Oct 6, 2003
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#17
your heading should read as 'tensions in north asia'.

King Tiger said:
Working late today, come back home and watch the 11 pm news; and shock to see that North Korea announce the possession of nuclear weapons.

Message from News.

North Korea has a stockpile of nuclear bombs and is building more such weapons, the country's vice foreign minister Kim Gye Gwan said in a US television interview.
"I should say that we have enough nuclear bombs to defend against a US attack," the North Korean official told ABC News when asked how many nuclear bombs it possessed.



 

#18
A war is won when enemy casaulties exceed its threshold before you do.

Let's assume there is a N, where N = number of casaulties a country can suffer in a war until the country leaders and/or public opinions want to seek for alternatives (e.g. conditional/unconditional surrender, peace talk etc).

A war can go on forever as long as no high casaulties involved (e.g. China vs Taiwan from 1949 to the 80's, India vs Pakistan, men vs women?)

A war can ends immediately if the casaulty toll exceeds N suddenly (e.g. Japan in WW2).

So in my opinion, modernisation of weaponary will help to push your enemy's casaulties reach N faster -> i.e. Enemy casaulties > N(enemy) but not the ONLY deciding factor.

So in predicting who will win the war, not only we look at the weaponary of each sides, we also have to consider N.

While US/Japan/Taiwan/S.Korea probably have more weapons of mass destructions, or sometime tactical destructions, they have very small N.

On the other hand, N. Korean probably have a much higher N and at the same time, the ability to bring casaulties of its enemy to exceed N quickly (i.e. Neuclear weapons), that's why it is viewed as a great threat to US/Japan/S.Korea.

So should there be a war in the pacific, it is really depending on how fast US/Japan/S.Korea/Taiwan take out the war heads in N.Korea/China before they strikes. The best way to do so is by ways of espionage. I believe this is already on going.
 

Apr 15, 2004
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#19
The 'Little Boy' Atomic bomb destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki overnight and that was old technology liao. I think 1 nuclear bomb and destroy half the Globe today.
 

adamadam

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#20
The only country allowed to have such weapons is the US.
They will not allow other countries to have these.
It will be a threat to them.
 

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