Looking into the crystal ball

[creampuff]

This is a speculative thread...

With the crop of new cameras already announced by other companies (Nikon, Sony, Olympus) and the impending announcement by Pentax in Jan (from internet chatter), I have decided to shelve plans to buy a replacement for the K10D that I gave away. I guess also on hold will be plans to get one of the new DA* lenses (tough decision here).

I hope Pentax goes FF or a smaller crop factor. That would be great. I reckon that as prices for the K10D are creeping downwards, it can only get better after the next set of announcements from Pentax. As the lens road map has recently been modified, that may indicate the possibility of newer lenses that can accommodate the next crop of new sensors. That's my reading anyway. So I'll probably put some serious thought on whether to commit to buy any more DA lenses. At any rate SDM will likely be the way forward, so there may be modifications made to current lenses to incorporate the in-lens focusing motor for faster and quieter focusing.

Need to start saving already...

 

[flowerpot]

Ya...im also holding back on my first Pentax body, as they say, you are not buying just a camera...you are buying the whole system...

FF or smaller crop :think: but i think it would be fairly safe to say it will be very silmilar to what sony/nikon is having...there is not many companies producing senors (sony and panasonic and some others), i used to work in a Japanese firm which also produce sensors (Yap made in SIN) and they usually supply to each other. My guess is Pentax if were to get the sensors from Sony, it will be very similar to what they are having...but perhaps with some minor specification differences base on what Pentax requested.

But perhaps im more concern with the lens availability to match that future Pentax body.

 

[creampuff]

I have faith that with Hoya's direction, thinks will move quicker lens wise as they supply glass blanks to practically everyone. The issue is Pentax already knows it needs to move faster to match the product cycle of its competitors. Actually I'm not so sure the next offering might be "very silmilar to what sony/nikon is having." So I've got 3 more months to wait and see...

 

[creampuff]

flowerpot, no need to wait to be a Pentaxian. Barrier to entry is much cheaper than other makes, whether K100D, K100D Super of K10D, Pentax is so much camera for so little money. Be like me, I dumped Nikon to use Pentax.

 

[stougard]

The next Pentax is a 12Mpx using Sony sensor (same as D300) and it'll arrive in 1 year at least. As usual, it'll be cheapper than Nikon and still propose very good features as K10d does.

A FF is an expensive camera, even Nikon does not make at less than D3. As far as I remember, Pentax never proposed anything to compete seriously with any F* Nikon or any D1 or D2. I don't think it'll change in future. That's a market for Nikon and Canon. If Pentax makes a FF, it means Nikon already makes one at less than 3,000 S$. Nikon has money to work on this R&D but Pentax can just be a follower. If Nikon does not propose a cheap FF, Pentax can not do it alone.

Go and buy the lenses you like, DA or FA, you can be sure they'll be good for years, very long years.

 

[fengwei]

Saw some posts in a Chinese forum, some guys said that Pentax has been developing a FF dSLR, and will probably use a FF sensor developed by Cypress:
http://download.cypress.com.edgesuite.net/design_resources/datasheets/contents/ibis4_14000_8.pdf

It'd be a 14mp FF CMOS sensor

Some guy (Benj) from PentaxForums hinted that Pentax will make some big noises in coming Jan, right before the PMA. And this has been double rumored by Roland from DPR Pentax forum

Let's wait and see how.

 

[creampuff]

stougard, Nikon has mentioned that FF will eventually trickle down to consumer grade models. Yes FF is currently pricey but like computing, prices will come down even as sensor quality improves, thats the economics of precision manufacturing today.

Canon and Nikon always adopt a pyramid of influence marketing model of introducing the best models with the best features at pro-level. These will always command premium pricing and serves to attract enthusiasts towards them because many want to aspire to use what the pros use. The real money is at consumer level. Over time a lot of pro-level features will funnel down to consumer grade models.

The market for compact digital cameras is reaching saturation. Compact cameras today boast more features for much less money than a few years back. Margins for manufacturers are getting thinner and the real avenue for growth is in the DSLR market. The competition is keenest here so I believe there is hope for Pentax to come out with a FF or smaller crop model much sooner rather than later.

Hmm, 14 megapixel FF CMOS = I need to seriously start saving money. Yummy.

 

[alanpotpot]

I also saw in one of the forums that it might not be FF since Pentax already has problems producing lenses. I hope they really announce something big this January.

 

[stougard]

stougard, Nikon has mentioned that FF will eventually trickle down to consumer grade models. Yes FF is currently pricey but like computing, prices will come down even as sensor quality improves, thats the economics of precision manufacturing today.

Yes Pentax is making a 14Mpx, maybe 16 or 18Mpx, it's not exactly what you exect in fact :

They work on it since years and it's not yet released, but it may come soon. As you can see, no relationship with DA of FA lenses.

 

[night86mare]

=( sian

does this mean my sigma 10-20 will not work properly on a FF camera?

though of course it's for the better

 

[fengwei]

=( sian

does this mean my sigma 10-20 will not work properly on a FF camera?

though of course it's for the better

Well, Sigma has a 12-24 for FF, that'll be even wider than your 10-20 :bsmilie:

 

[night86mare]

Well, Sigma has a 12-24 for FF, that'll be even wider than your 10-20 :bsmilie:

$$$

$$$

$$$

:sweat::sweat::sweat:

 

[stougard]

Guys, a Pentax has already made a Digital Full Frame camera : http://www.unices.org/blog/2007/10/19/a-full-frame-pentax/

 

[creampuff]

Yes Pentax is making a 14Mpx, maybe 16 or 18Mpx, it's not exactly what you exact in fact :

They work on it since years and it's not yet released, but it may come soon. As you can see, no relationship with DA of FA lenses.

I am quite certain the forthcoming new model will not be a digital 645. For a MF camera, even 18 Mpix is not enough as current MF digital backs are already capable of providing resolution beyond 20Mpix.

Pentax went thru a bad financial patch years back when their AF film cameras were commercial flops amidst the overall decline in film based photography. The company had to downsize and as a consequence they had to discontinue the bulk of their FA series. That may have been a blessing in disguise as the limited current lens lineup mean they can switch and retool/redesign new lenses for whatever new format or sensor technology is available round the corner. All their current lenses might be revamped to cater for SDM support in the near future, so in my view I'll hold off any new lens purchases until things are a bit clearer.

 

[stougard]

... I'll hold off any new lens purchases until things are a bit clearer.

It depends on what you do with the lenses. If your point is to own them, consider buying Leica, it will fill better your feeling for beautiful things. If you want to make photo, life is too short and K10d is good enough to not wait for nothing.

Things are bright clear with Pentax. They are followers from Nikon about CCD and they take what they can take. For K10d, they could do it because they had to make the Samsung for the same price. This camera is clearly a miracle and I guess this is the one who is saving Pentax from bankrupt .

Expecting a FF from them is just a dream, they are not even able to make their own lenses (Tokina makes most of them), how can you even think they have the money to work on a FF camera (because if they do so, they must think some new lenses as well and Tokina may not follow for FF).

Anyway, even if they make a FF. Do you know, lenses needing for a FF camera have no relationship with DA lenses. A FF sensor is more sensitive and more detailed than the best film, if lenses is not just perfect, it'll never do. Do you mind paying thousands of $ just for one lens when the best DA lens is still a few hundreds of $ ?

Why do you think Nikon only make a very high and expensive camera for FF ? because there is no market if you don't pay it expensive. You want a FF ? go to Nikon or Canon. I bet 1,000 $ Pentax will not do one before a very long time.

 

[dnaxe]

I am quite certain the forthcoming new model will not be a digital 645. For a MF camera, even 18 Mpix is not enough as current MF digital backs are already capable of providing resolution beyond 20Mpix.

I think the current expectation is a 30MP digital 645. 18MP was quite a long time ago.

Pentax went thru a bad financial patch years back when their AF film cameras were commercial flops amidst the overall decline in film based photography. The company had to downsize and as a consequence they had to discontinue the bulk of their FA series.

Not because of the prohibition against lead in lenses? I'm sure that was at least a contributing factor.

 

[dnaxe]

Why do you think Nikon only make a very high and expensive camera for FF ? because there is no market if you don't pay it expensive. You want a FF ? go to Nikon or Canon. I bet 1,000 $ Pentax will not do one before a very long time.

This is true.

 

[creampuff]

No market for FF unless it is priced very high? What logic is that? Just about any new product that comes to market is priced at a premium because the company will want to recoup the initial investment, marketing, production and R&D costs. When sales reach a certain threshold, the company can afford to reduce the price as the initial setup costs have been attained. For example, one look at the pricing of the Canon 5D since it was first launched bears this out.

I am not saying FF isn't going to be cheap but once sensor production is ramped up, unit costs will come down. So I would take the optimistic view that no company, Pentax included, will necessarily stick to one sensor size (APS-C currently). To me FF will be the norm sooner rather than later.

 

[roentarre]

I really feel little need to have full frame at all.

What I really love from the next model is better dynamic range for the sensor. The colour and contrast coming out of pentax k10d is just amazing. It just performs badly in harsh lighting with clipped corners in the images.

1.3 crop is fine but FF, not necessarily that important. Even for protraits, 1.3X is enough; otherwise we will really lose the body in built VR

 

[airconvent]

I'm not too particular about FF...just give me this!

;p:lovegrin: