debt/gdp

[keiser]

Hi,

Just wondering if anyone here could let me know what is the current sg debt to gdp ratio?

Thx in advance and happy cny!

 

[Octarine]

I had something in my FB news feed about it. According some statistics it's 388%, giving Singapore a well-earned place in the global top 5 ranking. Only beaten by Japan and another one (can't recall).

 

[trd2970]

Not a simple question

 

[cks2k2]

I had something in my FB news feed about it. According some statistics it's 388%, giving Singapore a well-earned place in the global top 5 ranking. Only beaten by Japan and another one (can't recall).

it can't be 388% (so "ong") cos even japan is only close to 200+%.
according to our friends at the CIA: 105.5% https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2186.html

besides thinking that high public debt = bad without knowing how it works (i.e. owed to who? ability to pay back etc) is misguided

 

[brapodam]

it can't be 388% (so "ong") cos even japan is only close to 200+%.
according to our friends at the CIA: 105.5% https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2186.html

besides thinking that high public debt = bad without knowing how it works (i.e. owed to who? ability to pay back etc) is misguided

Yup. If you read http://www.gov.sg/government/web/co...y-041012-IstheresomethingwrongwithourReserves, SG is quite unique. Majority of debt is not owed to other countries. Here is a short excerpt:

7. Why does Singapore have a high debt-to-GDP ratio despite running budget surpluses in the past? Do the debts mean that our CPF monies are not safe?
Singapore has no net debt. Its large gross debt position is due to the issuance of government securities. However, the Government’s assets substantially exceed these debts.

This can be seen from the fact that the Government has significant net investment returns that can be spent on the Budget each year. Under the Constitution, the Government is able to spend from the Net Investment Returns only if it enjoys a positive net asset position. In other words, if the Government’s assets fall short of its liabilities, there can be no contribution from the investment returns on reserves in the Government Budget.

After deducting all the Government’s liabilities (including CPF monies), the remaining net assets produce significant returns. The Net Investment Returns Contribution (NIRC) is about $7 billion; it should be further noted that the NIRC only comprises up to 50% of the returns earned on the reserves.

The Government’s strong net asset position also illustrates why CPF monies are safe. To underscore this, the Government fully guarantees the bonds that CPF monies are invested in.


8. Why does Singapore need to issue so much debt anyway?
Singapore has a unique system. We do not borrow to fund the Government Budget, as the Constitution as well as the Government Securities Act prevents us from doing so. Furthermore, the Government is required to run a balanced budget over every term of government, which is about 4 to 5 years. Government debt issuances are therefore invested and not spent on the Budget.

The two types of Government debt securities are issued for reasons unrelated to the Government’s fiscal needs:

a) Singapore Government Securities (SGS) are marketable debt instruments issued for purposes of developing Singapore's debt markets. The principal objectives of SGS issuance are to: i) build a liquid SGS market to provide a risk-free benchmark against which other private debt securities are priced off; ii) foster the growth of an active secondary market both for cash transactions and derivatives, to enable efficient risk management; and iii) encourage issuers and investors, both domestic and international, to participate in the Singapore bond market. As at December 2011, SGS stock is valued at S$79 billion, while the stock of Treasury-Bills is valued at S$59 billion.

b) Special Singapore Government Securities (SSGS) are non-tradable bonds issued specifically to the Central Provident Fund (CPF) Board, Singapore’s national pension fund. Singaporeans’ CPF monies are invested in these special securities which are fully guaranteed by the Government. The securities earn for the CPF Board a coupon rate that is pegged to CPF interest rates that members receive. As at December 2011, SSGS stock is valued at S$216 billion.

The issuance of Government debt is solely for the above two purposes. As explained in item 5 and in Q11 on MOF’s website [http://app.mof.gov.sg/reserves_sectionone.aspx], the proceeds from the issuance of debt cannot be used to improve the investment performance of GIC or Temasek.

 

[Octarine]

it can't be 388% (so "ong") cos even japan is only close to 200+%.
according to our friends at the CIA: 105.5% https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2186.html

I can't find it anymore.. FB sucks in searching things ... but you are right with your details.
Found something else that reflects the same what I saw on my FB stream:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2014/09/29/the-seven-most-indebted-nations/

besides thinking that high public debt = bad without knowing how it works (i.e. owed to who? ability to pay back etc) is misguided

Yup, facts and figures without context are pointless.

 

[keiser]

Hi,

Almost 4 times gdp is a little shocking … but I also bump into the below site suggesting what you saw while surfing ... to me i think 100+ is a little more believable … wonder how Mckinsey and folks came up with those numbers …?

http://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/e...bt-gdp-over-380%-1-highest-world-4976706.html

I had something in my FB news feed about it. According some statistics it's 388%, giving Singapore a well-earned place in the global top 5 ranking. Only beaten by Japan and another one (can't recall).

 

[keiser]

it can't be 388% (so "ong") cos even japan is only close to 200+%.
according to our friends at the CIA: 105.5% https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2186.html

besides thinking that high public debt = bad without knowing how it works (i.e. owed to who? ability to pay back etc) is misguided

Thanks, do you know if there is local site publishing the official number?

 

[keiser]

Good to be reminded on prudent practices on paper e.g. net asset grater than debt amount and therefore not a problem etc. … but I guess will be interesting to know how much more greater and at what rate etc….. since sg appears to be effectively overall levering up …

Yup. If you read http://www.gov.sg/government/web/co...y-041012-IstheresomethingwrongwithourReserves, SG is quite unique. Majority of debt is not owed to other countries. Here is a short excerpt:

 

[cks2k2]

Thanks, do you know if there is local site publishing the official number?

MOF should have it somewhere.

 

[keiser]

MOF should have it somewhere.

Thanks.

 

[ArchRival]

Regardless how you dress it, debt is debt that has to be repaid, one way or other.
High debt-to-gdp is scary, but increasing debt-to-gdp ratio is worse.
This means pretty soon your debt is rising faster than your income is coming in. People will figure at this point you can never repay your debts and will stop lending. Then things will really fall apart.

But don't worry, there is also this thing called financial oppression. Among other things, this means forcing the citizens to lend at relatively low interest rates. :bsmilie:

 

[diver-hloc]

Don't overspend.... don't over borrow... keep lifestyle as simple as possible...

 

[brapodam]

Regardless how you dress it, debt is debt that has to be repaid, one way or other.

Actually, no. You only have to pay off the interest, not the full debt.

 

[hanzohattori]

Actually, no. You only have to pay off the interest, not the full debt.

and with the ultra low interest rate era, you can go on forever actually..

 

[ArchRival]

Actually, no. You only have to pay off the interest, not the full debt.

Dude, bonds have maturity dates.

 

[hanzohattori]

Dude, bonds have maturity dates.

Yeah.. but sovereign bonds are long term.. and when they due, just issue another to cover the first lender.
Problem solved

 

[UncleFai]

A good piece (not written by me) that explains this issue:

https://www.facebook.com/notes/donald-lows-fc/analyzing-budget-2015-properly/932894703411171

 

[lkf73]

Yeah.. but sovereign bonds are long term.. and when they due, just issue another to cover the first lender. Problem solved

Kong HEE also know this logic use a bond to cover the expiring bond.