2018 was the worst year for the digital camera sales since peaking in 2009 - CIPA

[dolina]

The above graph on interchangeable lens camera shipment December data from CIPA: While the market for interchangeable lens cameras and lenses is down, it’s been the digital compact market (point & shoots) which has suffered most, although the carnage of the last five years seems to be levelling off. Holding up the interchangeables market is the mirrorless segment, which according to more detailed CIPA figures, in fact increased year-on-year sales compared to 2017 by 1.4 percent in volume and 23 percent in value.


So while compacts are falling way behind, DSLRs are falling behind as well, which has resonances with that old joke about the two hikers being pursued by a bear. DSLR’s still outsell mirrrorless cameras by 6.62 million (61.5%) to 4.14 million (38.5%), but in dollars terms, the value of the two segments is about equal.

Source: https://www.insideimaging.com.au/2019/mirrorless-edging-ahead-in-cipa-camera-stats/

Canon recently said they expect two more years of market shrinking until market stabilizes.

Source: https://www.mirrorlessrumors.com/ne...the-worst-year-for-the-digital-camera-market/

 

[dolina]

The table above shows the CIPA sales data from 2015-2018, CIPA's projected camera sales for 2019 & Canon's projected camera sales for 2020.

Based on the CIPA 2019 & Canon 2020 sales figure I am fairly confident that companies like Canon & Nikon may not release any more new DSLR (Reflex) models anymore before July 2020 and instead put in all their R&D money into more mirrorless camera bodies and lenses that are equal or exceed the features, capability and accuracy of DSLRs sold today.

Canon CEO also noted mirrorless camera sales aren't significantly adding to its bottom line, but are instead significantly eating into the sales of DSLRs. If any R&D capital is going to cannibalize your money makers during your current product's mid-cycle then you may as well just release new generation of mirrorless camera models at the end of the product cycle of your DSLRs.

Personally, I would prefer 1 more generation of DSLRs within the next 17.5 months but market forces may force the 1D X Mark II, 5D Mark IV, 5Ds / 5Ds R, 6D Mark II and 7D Mark II to be the last full frame and high end APS-C DSLR models to be developed.

 

[ricohflex]

The market is changing and consumers are watching.
The economy is not good and people curtail their purchases on expensive hobbies.
Technology improvement changes the design, specifications and price of digital equipment.
In 1989 you could buy a 340MB hard disk for USD$ 1,800.
Now in 2019 you can get a Samsung 2TB 970 EVO NVMe M.2 Internal SSD for USD$500.
In 1980 you could buy a PC with 5¼ inch floppy drives.
In 2019 you cannot buy a PC with 5¼ inch floppy drives, even if you want to.
Manufacturers need to make the type of camera that SELLS - the genre
and format that 90% of the mass market consumers want and can afford to buy.
For example, Nikon 1 system of mirrorless cameras was officially discontinued.
Because few people wanted to buy it.
Usually an overly tiny sensor is a main reason for market failure.
As price gap between M4/3 <> APS-C <> Full Frame sensors drop, most buyers will think.
Why don't they buy full frame, once they pay above a certain price point.

 

[Zhaoping Pan]

Cell phone with high resolution, multi-lens are also one killer to the camera market.

 

[BBTM]

One camera can last quite a numbers of years. If lens not spoil, no point changing one too n I am still using A-mount on my mirror camera. I recently brought a 2nd body to trip, no point investing new version as I also got a pns tele body. Furthermore, we need to utilize the camera else it's a waste, therefore, we need to go more oversea but also need $, right?

 

[Ah Keong]

Soon the development cycle would slow down as there are not much disruptive technological advances in the sensor technology, some changes would be coming to the optics technology especially at the wide and ultra wide end lenses due to the mirrorless design and short back flange distance.

The next disruption would be most likely in the AI area where "computational photography" may come into place eating battery life for processing in the tiny mirrorless bodies....

 

[BBTM]

In 1980 you could buy a PC with 5¼ inch floppy drives.

I still got those in one corner of my house, haha! Miss those days whereby I try to retrieve the data when the disk having problems on reading it, haha!

 

[Bukitimah]

Lenses are the surviving item. Personally, a FF body of reasonably low iso sensor capability will meet your need for a long time. Weight between mirrorless body is insignificant when you need lens.

 

[Big Kahuna]

The technology evolves...so no choice...the DSLR will eventually go into the same footpath of of a Film camera....example my kid is more keen on a smartphone camera than a proper camera...imagine when they grow up...say in 10 years....they will not know what is Aperture priority, shutter priority, ISO etc...the software or AI in the smartphone will take care for them

 

[ed9119]

Camera technology is not the only thing evolving
How , Where and the Type of Media in which people view images is affecting the types of cameras sold
Thank goodness the camera found a homeand platform in smartphones

Remember how we laughed at the tiny cameras sensors when they first appeared on phones ?

But u believe? Cameras will eventually move out of smartphones onto other platforms when the time and technology is right

Wrist communicators?
HUD ?
Eye-embedded connections to a storage device ?
Solar powered AI autonomous drones ?
Uber-like cameras where you just pay for the images without even touching a camera ?

 

[Simon_84]

The next disruption would be most likely in the AI area where "computational photography" may come into place eating battery life for processing in the tiny mirrorless bodies....

a google pixel phone is a great threat especially with its predictive AI night shot and auto HRD mode.