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Thread: Total fertility rate last year hit a new low of 1.23

  1. #21

    Default Re: Total fertility rate last year hit a new low of 1.23

    birth rate is usually defined as number of birth per 1000 person per year.
    1.23 = 1.23 babies/1000 person per year.
    surely the paper make this sound so scary. we got 5m ppl 1.23 = abt 6k babies last year...
    i dig a little being a bloody nerd and took 4 years of stats education tells me that half the time the paper are just making is so scary.

    truth is 1.23 refers total fertility rate per female. meaning they count all the ah ma and xmm that cant give birth.
    in 2008 there was 39k birth. actual birth rate is actually around 7.8 than 1.23 -_-.

    however we should note that countries like china have 22-30 birth rate.
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  2. #22
    Senior Member Big Kahuna's Avatar
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    Default Re: Total fertility rate last year hit a new low of 1.23

    Ok, did some search and this should be the accurate explanation

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertility_rate

  3. #23

    Default Re: Total fertility rate last year hit a new low of 1.23

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Kahuna View Post
    Ok, did some search and this should be the accurate explanation

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertility_rate
    ah i see ..this does makes more sense now.
    1.23 quite low ah =)...but we still mate faster than pandas and rhinos. nothing to worry about
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  4. #24
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    Default Re: Total fertility rate last year hit a new low of 1.23

    Most responsible person will consider marry or give birth only after achieve some minimal financial goal (like enough money for paying marriage, basic housing loan, or enough to attract partner), by that time, they will need another few years to wait for the HDB or Condo to be built. Then some will find it hard to conceive as they are getting old, stress, no energy, work commitment, no family time and prefer other thing than commitment like raising a few children at home. If can give birth the baby, but who is going to teach and raise them, pass to childcare, maids? No everyone with grandparent or relatives are willing to help out. School fees are getting more expensive nowadays, children products are not cheap either. If a person could not or do not have the resource to live comfortably, will they want their offspring to be the same. The more they give birth the less resource are availlable for the existing family. How many family can really afford 3-4 children and live comfortably? I wonder.
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  5. #25

    Default Re: Total fertility rate last year hit a new low of 1.23

    Quote Originally Posted by zcf View Post
    How many family can really afford 3-4 children and live comfortably? I wonder.
    comfortably is a measure that varies from one person to another.
    some are happy egh with a 3 room flat, some are only satisfied when they own a 30 hectares landed property.
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  6. #26
    Deregistered allenleonhart's Avatar
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    Default Re: Total fertility rate last year hit a new low of 1.23

    Quote Originally Posted by USM View Post
    Relaxing immigration policies. You can see that there are more and more immigrants flooding to Singapore.

    Given falling birth rate and aging population, what can the government do?
    well. to give u an idea. the ratio of singapore citizensto foreigners is a wonder 2:1. i grouped prs along with the foreigners to make it closer to what we really expect.

    and if u have 1 FT in almost every 3 ppl, i assure u that its hard for ppl to wanna have babies.

  7. #27

    Default Re: Total fertility rate last year hit a new low of 1.23

    Quote Originally Posted by allenleonhart View Post
    well. to give u an idea. the ratio of singapore citizensto foreigners is a wonder 2:1. i grouped prs along with the foreigners to make it closer to what we really expect.

    and if u have 1 FT in almost every 3 ppl, i assure u that its hard for ppl to wanna have babies.
    I fail to see how having more FTs makes citizens want to have fewer kids. Are FTs secretly running around at night, poisoning the water supply and making SG men/women less fertile?

    I think its more of a lifestyle issue, and what the couples' priorities are. I have a number of SG cousins (all married to Singaporeans) who are doing pretty well (high salary, private house, car, annual overseas trips) but refuse to have kids. Having kids means de-prioritizing their wants and needs for the child.

  8. #28
    Member akangtooch's Avatar
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    Default Re: Total fertility rate last year hit a new low of 1.23

    if job pressure is overwhelming, no time to think on sex....

    so forget ur job first...

  9. #29
    Deregistered allenleonhart's Avatar
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    Default Re: Total fertility rate last year hit a new low of 1.23

    LOL haha and i edit till i think dnu need post this post already. -censored-
    Last edited by allenleonhart; 22nd February 2010 at 08:22 PM.

  10. #30

    Default Re: Total fertility rate last year hit a new low of 1.23

    I think the main obstacle nowadays is childcaring facilities, or rather, the lack of.

    Consider this:
    If you own your own home, most couples cannot afford to go single income; property prices are crazy. So you ask your parents for help, and nope, mum and dad don't want to give up their jobs, or mum and dads' knees are dodgy, and are in no condition to do any toddler chasing.

    So what next? AHA, infant care. Easy. I wish. Almost every infant care centre is "Sorry we're full, but if you want I can put you on the waiting list". The few centres that have vacancies cost $1.5k/month AFTER subsidy (that's probably why they have vacancies!).

    Okaaayyy... desperate times call for desperate measures! Got maid? Sure, got plenty maids, as well as plenty horror stories about horror maids. You get paranoid thinking of what they maid may do to your baby to get back at you. Especially if there is no one else at home. Then maid cannot tahan and wants to go home. Get new maid, rinse, repeat, lose your hair.

    And that's just for one kid.

  11. #31

    Default Re: Total fertility rate last year hit a new low of 1.23

    Importation of FT (foreign talents and including those on truck loads) does not solve the total fertility rate (TFR) issue. On contrary, it may actually exacerbate the bleak looking TFR. It is important to note that TFR is not the equivalent of population number or vice-versa just as we cannot equate the rate of production on the production line with the number of finished goods when we discuss the issue.

    As loose immigration polices creates higher competition for employment and labour in the society, scarcity or the the perception of it may negatively affect the fertility rate for both the migrant as well as the natives. Infrastructural congestions such as packed to the brim trains, limited space, congested roads, low supply of public housing and the rocket prices of both public and private housing futher increase and reinforces this scarcity view.

    Parallel to the scarcity view is that evolement of a 'fertility trap.' As more women are not having children, those who do consider it finds that the opportunity costs rises for them- peer to peer it is commonly accepted that folks without children have more financial freedom than those having children and having children would meant disadvantages in employment or career mobility or even competitiveness as an employee.


    A research identifies the drivers of low fertility:

    1.: The provision of gender equity through an opening up of opportunities for women beyond the household

    2.: Increasing levels of risk aversion among young people of both sexes in an increasingly competitive labour market


    This further suggest that uncritical importation of FT in high numbers could result in further sinking of the TFR. A study in Canada suggests that immigration policy alone cannot was not sustainable in demographic development of the country.

    Demographic data in the United States also shows that immigration has little impact on the issue. Fertility rates without the immigrants was 2.0 and considering the immigrants altogether was 2.1. This somehow suggests that incoming migrants has no significance or bearing to improving the fertility rate in US. In Singapore, the same phenomenon is being observed. Depite a sharp increase of migrants, fertility rate remains low and is beginning to head south in congruence with the perceived scarcity effect. Solving the dwindling TFR issue cannot be acheived by increasing the popoulation through migrants and attempting to do so may actually backfire.

    It is worthy to note that the longer young people stayed unemployed and hence starting late in career and marriage impacts negatively on the TFR. This has implications to Singaporeans as the economy is moving towards a knowledge based model (thus requiring more college time) and coupled with the fact that almost all Singaporean males will have to add another 2.5 years to their unemployment time due to national service (NS).
    Last edited by eyes; 23rd February 2010 at 10:36 AM.
    Tum podem extulit horridulum...日出東方﹐唯我不敗。

  12. #32

    Default Re: Total fertility rate last year hit a new low of 1.23

    One may view this as a looping trap for the dismay TFR: Extended unemployment, less competitive employee compared to FT due to NS call ups and increase in competition in every aspect of the citizen such as employment, transport, recreation and education.

    In addition to all these issues, some conventional family programs (citing examples from the US) were being mounted by feminist whom advocates 'pro-choice' and had successfully challenged states in areas such as access to abortion. The overbearing feminist rights movement may actually encourage poor TFR performances and much moderation is needed in finding a balance between sectorian rights and social responisbilities. I remembered that there was once I poked my collegue on why he remained single, his response was, "Go read the Women's Charter.'

    The problem does not source from young people but the society that they live in that are controlled by older people.

    So how do we improve the TFR for Singapore?

    A policy reform is neccessary and must have the support of the main powerbases in the country including business groups, politicians and women’s groups. Lowering the number of FT in Singapore would ease the competition for resource infrastrucures as well as well as freeing substaintial amount of jobs especially for the lower and middle income groups.

    Investments in upgrading the workforce without the pre-condition that it must be channelled through corporations so as to ensure a more even distribution of upgrading benefits and its resources to all citizens (this also prevents misuse or manipulation by exisiting corporations).

    The creation of a more moderate social system that is able to accommodate more flexible lifestyles could help as well as the review of the current social, economic and legal policies that may be unfavourable to the males, females and both.

    So can the someone stop blaming Singaporeans for its low total fertility rate (TFR).
    Last edited by eyes; 23rd February 2010 at 10:40 AM.
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  13. #33
    Member akangtooch's Avatar
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    Default Re: Total fertility rate last year hit a new low of 1.23

    it's better like this than over populated....

  14. #34
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    Default Re: Total fertility rate last year hit a new low of 1.23

    haha wtf? practising GP paper? reminds of the good ole days back in school... "because someone else said it, therefore it must be true"
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  15. #35
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    Default Re: Total fertility rate last year hit a new low of 1.23

    Quote Originally Posted by antacid View Post
    haha wtf? practising GP paper? reminds of the good ole days back in school... "because someone else said it, therefore it must be true"
    He can score an A+ for GP liao.

  16. #36

    Default Re: Total fertility rate last year hit a new low of 1.23

    Wow... I didn't know there's 8,000 papers with opposing views. Care to share? How about we start with immigration policies will improve fertility rate?


    Quote Originally Posted by night86mare View Post
    no , this is new level.... throwing out academic papers on everything and anything.

    without any "critical analysis" , to forward one's own personal agenda.

    believe you me, there are 8000 opposing papers on any conclusion those papers give.

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  17. #37
    Moderator diver-hloc's Avatar
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    Default Re: Total fertility rate last year hit a new low of 1.23

    You all really very free to google all these....

    Till S'porean is having enough babies.... FT, FW policy will likely remain more or less the same. Not happy.... I believe someone suggested New Zealand.....

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  18. #38

    Default Re: Total fertility rate last year hit a new low of 1.23

    as someone pointed out earlier, there are times when this has nothing to do with "scarcity", loads of rich people do not have kids because of lifestyle preferences.
    Is there any empirical data to support this at all?

    your link to jstor is to the STARTING PAGE of the paper, i am going to ask you nicely - do you even have access to the full article?
    It's a paid for article, you need to pay for it.

    by the way, you should learn that the opposite of your "immigration policies will ruin the fertility rate" argument is not that they will improve it.
    The onus is on the person who wish to disprove my opinion.


    here's my version of anyhow-google-in-10-minutes-to-impress-people-on-the-internet: http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2007/oc...ty.immigration
    Are you able to differentiate between fertility rate and population rise? Did you even read what was my opinion about or did personal assumptions got the better of you?
    Tum podem extulit horridulum...日出東方﹐唯我不敗。

  19. #39

    Default Re: Total fertility rate last year hit a new low of 1.23


    1) UK immigration swelled along with fertility rates,

    2) ireland has the HIGHEST fertility rates AND immigration rates in europe
    You are unable to provide published or made research on the correlations between the immigration and high fertility rates for the 2 cited examples. How do you qualify that they are positively correlated?


    3) why russia, poland, hungary, blah blah blah, have HIGH outflows of people, along with LOW fertility rates - since they have no scarcity problems, they shouldn't be having any trouble with making the decision to make babies, according to your wonderful sources.
    Based on what credibility makes you think that the countries you named has no scarcity or perceived scarcity issues?
    Last edited by eyes; 23rd February 2010 at 12:54 PM.
    Tum podem extulit horridulum...日出東方﹐唯我不敗。

  20. #40

    Default Re: Total fertility rate last year hit a new low of 1.23

    haha
    u all seriously too free...i cant be bothered reading all the comments.

    but i can conclude for some common sense and understanding of human geo.

    low birth always comes with higher standard of living. this is true for most countries...to name a few japan, europe...etc

    and higher standard of living comes with higher education of the general population.

    if we think of this intuitively. for sg example. a majority of the crowd would attempt to study till at least until 22 for females and 25 for males to get a basic degree. even if without degree, it would be 18 for females and 21 for males(after NS). with gd planning it would take at least 2 years to finish off study loans. next to start a family we would need a house. and in sg that amount to at least 10-20k of saving. so for the first few years of marriage couples would be trying all means to save up to recover the hole due to housing.

    as for babies. the lack of cheap infant care is really an issue. infant care cost could go more than $500.
    with all that in mind: later marriage and high child cost. it is not surprising people plan more carefully.... who wants to live hands to mouth right.

    as compared to other nation...its a cultural norm to get married by 18. and have kids by 20. this is impractical here. 18-20 hello...most of us are still in education or stuck in army.
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