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Thread: Singapore in worst-ever recession after Q4 slump

  1. #1
    Senior Member xtemujin's Avatar
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    Arrow Singapore in worst-ever recession after Q4 slump

    Singapore in worst-ever recession
    It shrank deeper than advance estimates of a 12.5 percent contraction. -Reuters

    SINGAPORE - Singapore's economy shrank more than expected in the fourth quarter, prompting the government to declare the nation was in its worst ever recession and fanning expectations that the central bank will let its currency weaken.

    The Singapore economy shrank in the fourth quarter at a seasonally adjusted, annualised pace of 16.9 percent, deeper than advance estimates of a 12.5 percent contraction, detailed government data showed on Wednesday.

    The government said it now expected Singapore's economy to contract between two and five percent this year, slashing its forecast further from an already downgraded outlook of a range of minus 2 percent to plus 1 percent published just three weeks ago.

    'The Singapore economy is going through its sharpest, deepest and most protracted recession,' the Trade Ministry's second permanent secretary Ravi Menon said at a media briefing. Singapore's central bank said on Wednesday that its monetary policy stance of zero appreciation in the Singapore dollar announced last October was intact and it had no plans to review monetary policy ahead of a scheduled policy meeting in April.

    But analysts said the gloomy economic forecasts and grim fourth quarter data increased the likelihood the central bank will loosen policy and let the Singapore dollar slide.

    'I'm bearish for the Singapore dollar. It's worse than I expected,' said Irene Cheung, currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore.

    'I expect monetary policy to remain accommodative - they should have recentered the band earlier, but they might still do it - the sooner the better.'

    Singapore manages monetary policy by adjusting the value of its currency relative to those of its main trading partners in an undisclosed band. The Singapore dollar stood at 1.5037 against the U.S. dollar by 0050 GMT, compared with 1.51 before the data.

    The government expects key non-oil domestic exports will shrink 9-11 percent this year, while total trade, which includes entreport activities, may plunge 17-19 percent.

    From a year ago, fourth quarter gross domestic product, or the value of all goods and services produced in Singapore, fell 3.7 percent following a drop of 0.2 percent in the third quarter.

    Singapore last reported three straight quarters of economic contraction in 2001 after the dotcom bubble burst in the United States, badly hurting the city-state's key electronics sector.

    The economy grew 1.2 percent for all of 2008, slowing sharply from 7.7 percent expansion in 2007.

    The government said manufacturing output in the fourth quarter shrank 10.7 percent from a year earlier, while services contracted 0.1 percent.

    http://business.asiaone.com/Business...21-116123.html
    Last edited by xtemujin; 21st January 2009 at 02:51 PM.

  2. #2

    Default Re: Singapore in worst-ever recession after Q4 slump

    Quote Originally Posted by xtemujin View Post
    Singapore in worst-ever recession
    It shrank deeper than advance estimates of a 12.5 percent contraction. -Reuters


    SINGAPORE - Singapore's economy shrank more than expected in the fourth quarter, prompting the government to declare the nation was in its worst ever recession and fanning expectations that the central bank will let its currency weaken.

    The Singapore economy shrank in the fourth quarter at a seasonally adjusted, annualised pace of 16.9 percent, deeper than advance estimates of a 12.5 percent contraction, detailed government data showed on Wednesday.

    The government said it now expected Singapore's economy to contract between two and five percent this year, slashing its forecast further from an already downgraded outlook of a range of minus 2 percent to plus 1 percent published just three weeks ago.

    'The Singapore economy is going through its sharpest, deepest and most protracted recession,' the Trade Ministry's second permanent secretary Ravi Menon said at a media briefing. Singapore's central bank said on Wednesday that its monetary policy stance of zero appreciation in the Singapore dollar announced last October was intact and it had no plans to review monetary policy ahead of a scheduled policy meeting in April.

    But analysts said the gloomy economic forecasts and grim fourth quarter data increased the likelihood the central bank will loosen policy and let the Singapore dollar slide.

    'I'm bearish for the Singapore dollar. It's worse than I expected,' said Irene Cheung, currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore.

    'I expect monetary policy to remain accommodative - they should have recentered the band earlier, but they might still do it - the sooner the better.'

    Singapore manages monetary policy by adjusting the value of its currency relative to those of its main trading partners in an undisclosed band. The Singapore dollar stood at 1.5037 against the U.S. dollar by 0050 GMT, compared with 1.51 before the data.

    The government expects key non-oil domestic exports will shrink 9-11 percent this year, while total trade, which includes entreport activities, may plunge 17-19 percent.

    From a year ago, fourth quarter gross domestic product, or the value of all goods and services produced in Singapore, fell 3.7 percent following a drop of 0.2 percent in the third quarter.

    http://business.asiaone.com/Business...21-116123.html

    Singapore last reported three straight quarters of economic contraction in 2001 after the dotcom bubble burst in the United States, badly hurting the city-state's key electronics sector.

    The economy grew 1.2 percent for all of 2008, slowing sharply from 7.7 percent expansion in 2007.

    The government said manufacturing output in the fourth quarter shrank 10.7 percent from a year earlier, while services contracted 0.1 percent.
    This is getting worst now.....
    What you all will do now...

    Any action plans???

    Please share......

  3. #3

    Default Re: Singapore in worst-ever recession after Q4 slump

    This would REALLY justfy our dipping into our savings!! Hurry already!!!



  4. #4

    Default Re: Singapore in worst-ever recession after Q4 slump

    i heard....singapore dollar gonna be weakened......which means it will hav less value......so i guess....better hold some solid assets or change S$ cash to US$ and keep.

    Otherwise, today S$100 will only worth S$70 tomorrow.

    What do you guys think? any plan?

  5. #5

    Default Re: Singapore in worst-ever recession after Q4 slump

    Dec output shrinks 13.5%

    It is the third straight month of contraction in the key manufacturing sector. -ST

    Wed, Jan 21, 2009
    The Straits Times

    SINGAPORE'S manufacturing output shrank 13.5 per cent in December from a year ago, the third straight month of contraction in the key sector, the government said on Wednesday.

    On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, output fell 11.0 per cent and overall production last year dropped 4.1 per cent from the previous year, the Economic Development Board said.

    A 35.1 per cent drop in electronics output led last month's fall, data showed.

    source :- http://news.asiaone.com/print/News/L...21-116211.html

  6. #6

    Default Re: Singapore in worst-ever recession after Q4 slump

    Quote Originally Posted by Albertmm View Post
    i heard....singapore dollar gonna be weakened......which means it will hav less value......so i guess....better hold some solid assets or change S$ cash to US$ and keep.

    Otherwise, today S$100 will only worth S$70 tomorrow.

    What do you guys think? any plan?
    US$ is weak too.. why not Japanese YEN... Will be better to change to YEN rather than US$...

  7. #7
    Senior Member sammy888's Avatar
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    Default Re: Singapore in worst-ever recession after Q4 slump

    Quote Originally Posted by Albertmm View Post
    i heard....singapore dollar gonna be weakened......which means it will hav less value......so i guess....better hold some solid assets or change S$ cash to US$ and keep.

    Otherwise, today S$100 will only worth S$70 tomorrow.

    What do you guys think? any plan?
    Just wait for after the snap election

  8. #8
    Senior Member xtemujin's Avatar
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    Arrow Re: Singapore in worst-ever recession after Q4 slump

    Singapore economy to shrink up to 5 pct in 2009

    By ALEX KENNEDY 2 hours ago

    SINGAPORE (AP) Singapore slashed its 2009 growth forecast for a second time this month, saying the economy could shrink as much as 5 percent, as the city-state reels from plunging demand for its exports.

    During the last two weeks, weaker than expected retail sales, unemployment and industrial production in the U.S. and Europe and falling Asian exports forced the government to rethink its expectations for this year, the Trade and Industry Ministry said Wednesday.

    Singapore's gross domestic product is now expected to contract between 2 percent and 5 percent this year, the ministry said. The previous two forecasts had allowed for the possibility that the economy would expand this year.

    "These developments will have a major impact on Singapore," it said in a statement.

    "Global economic activity has declined faster and deeper, and the spillover effects on key sectors of the economy will be stronger."

    The ministry also revised down last year's economic growth to 1.2 percent from 1.5 percent, following a 7.7 percent expansion in 2007.

    The economy shrank a seasonally adjusted 16.9 percent in the fourth quarter, the largest contraction since the government began publishing the indicator in 1975.

    "In all, this will mark the worst recession in Singapore's history," said Kit Wei Zheng, an analyst with Citigroup in Singapore.

    Singapore's reliance on exports to drive growth is high even by the standards of export-dependent Asia, making it highly sensitive to the fortunes of major developed economies.
    The government has said it plans to battle recession by boosting infrastructure spending and public aid in its 2009 budget, scheduled to be announced Thursday.

    "All eyes will now be towards Thursday's budget, which no doubt will be aggressive," said Prakriti Sofat, an economist with HSBC in Singapore.

    Non-oil exports, which account for about two-thirds of GDP, will likely fall between 9 percent and 11 percent this year, down from the government's earlier forecast of between a 1 percent growth and 1 percent contraction, the ministry's trade promotion agency, International Enterprise Singapore, said Wednesday.

    The government also lowered its inflation forecast for this year, now expecting a range between no change in prices and a 1 percent drop from an earlier estimate of prices rising between 1 percent and 2 percent. Prices fell 0.6 percent in December and rose 4.3 percent last year, the statistics department said.

    Manufacturing fell 13.5 percent in December from the same month the year before and dropped 11 percent from the previous month, the government said.

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...wuJ7wD95RC3N00

  9. #9
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    Default Re: Singapore in worst-ever recession after Q4 slump

    Just pray hard the gov don't dip into our pocket for the recession.

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    Default Re: Singapore in worst-ever recession after Q4 slump

    Quote Originally Posted by Rubber_Duck View Post
    This is getting worst now.....
    What you all will do now...

    Any action plans???

    Please share......
    I'll purchase a rubber duck!

    Because the end will justifies the means, isn't it?



    -----------------------------------------
    "My momma always said life was
    like a box of chocolates. You never
    know what you're gonna get". - Tom Hanks

  11. #11
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    Default Re: Singapore in worst-ever recession after Q4 slump

    You guys really think singapore is hit so hard? have u guys wondered why recently the media is fanning more and more agressively that singapore is into severe recession?

    Go and think abt wats gona happen in next year, and go and think abt wat will be the plans that are going to be enacted to make the "u know who" look glam. Think harder. if u understand wat i said and u took the necessary actions, u gona be rich in abt 18months time.
    09 Oct 09 officially marks the date I become a canon convert.

  12. #12
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    Default Re: Singapore in worst-ever recession after Q4 slump

    forecasts are just that- forecast. its not that the forecasts are even close to 99.99% accurate loh.
    have u seen the "light" yet?

  13. #13
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    Default Re: Singapore in worst-ever recession after Q4 slump

    i still see a lot of govt jobs available and canon singapore is still hiring as well...where got recession...i believe that recession is worst over in europe and US, asia countries aren't hit so badly as predicated...
    Last edited by Simon_84; 22nd January 2009 at 09:35 AM.

  14. #14

    Default Re: Singapore in worst-ever recession after Q4 slump

    It took the US, 1.5 years to admit they were in a recession. Like everything, information needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Asia's economic slow down lags behind the US and Europe, as manufacturing does take time to be impacted.

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    Default Re: Singapore in worst-ever recession after Q4 slump

    Quote Originally Posted by 2evans View Post
    It took the US, 1.5 years to admit they were in a recession. Like everything, information needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Asia's economic slow down lags behind the US and Europe, as manufacturing does take time to be impacted.
    actually for the semi-con industry, since last year, charted, ST, IMFS has already start to retrench ppl on 6 months payout...
    the hard disk industry is not expected to recover till 2010.
    Last edited by Simon_84; 22nd January 2009 at 01:46 PM.

  16. #16

    Default Re: Singapore in worst-ever recession after Q4 slump

    Quote Originally Posted by Rubber_Duck View Post
    This is getting worst now.....
    What you all will do now...

    Any action plans???

    Please share......
    Stop buying gears, start selling gears

  17. #17

    Default Re: Singapore in worst-ever recession after Q4 slump

    Quote Originally Posted by forward View Post
    I'll purchase a rubber duck!

    Because the end will justifies the means, isn't it?



    -----------------------------------------
    "My momma always said life was
    like a box of chocolates. You never
    know what you're gonna get". - Tom Hanks
    you want to buy rubber duck...
    is not cheap hor....


    Quote Originally Posted by Harry Potter View Post
    Stop buying gears, start selling gears
    ha ha.... is giving up hobby liao....
    but now BBB is so strong.... so many ppl still buying new gear and lens.

    As what other ppl mentioned buy more to help to economy to pick up...
    if no one buying.... that also a problem.....

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