View Poll Results: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell/avoid

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  • Buy

    18 26.09%
  • Sell

    5 7.25%
  • Hold

    27 39.13%
  • Avoid

    19 27.54%
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Thread: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

  1. #141
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by user111 View Post
    the easier way is to use cfd to short. commission is a bit higher but the money comes in and out in real time (of course have to refresh the screen), hence its easy to keep track.

    about the 5x leverage ratio of cfd, my method is to use only 1x to minimise risk. no need to use up to the full 5x leverage.

    so for example if SGX is now at $10 and you want to short it at $10. Assuming your cfd account now has $10k inside, you just have to key in "sell" for 1 lot. at $10, you only need to use $10,000k / 5 = $2,000 to maintain your short position. then in real time, $2k (maintenance margin) will be deducted to maintain the short of 1 lot SGX@$10, and $8k will be left behind in the account. you can treat the $8k as buffer money in case the market turns against you.

    so if SGX really drops to $9.5, then your profit is $500 because u traded 1 lot. In realtime, your left over balance will be $8k + $500 = $8.5K. then if u decide to cover your short and buy in @ $9.5, after everything is closed and done properly, your account wil be $10500. commission will be deducted at EOD.

    similarly when you want to long SGX, if u use normal shares method u need to fork out 10K just to buy 1 lot. if u use cfd method to go long on SGX for 1 lot, u only need $2k to maintain the long position. so this is how i use cfd's 5x leverage to trade - not to aim for 5x the potential profit, but rather to reduce the maintanance margin cost to 1/5 of its original value.

    In my experience, there is no real need to check intraday prices. because for this kind of trade, its more worthwhile to take day positions and close your positions after a few days rather than trade intraday. that means your TA will be based on daily prices and not intraday prices.

    my take for SGX now is - now its still falling.
    i will wait for it to fall until $9+ then buy long until past last week's high was $11.
    short when the hopefuls are in ! nothing can divert much away from fundamentals...

  2. #142
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve may push interest rates below the pace of inflation this year to avert the first simultaneous decline in U.S. household wealth and income since 1974.

    The threat of cascading stock and home values and a weakening labor market will spur the Fed to cut its benchmark rate by half a percentage point tomorrow, traders and economists forecast. That would bring the rate to 3 percent, approaching one measure of price increases monitored by the Fed.

    ``The Fed is going to have to keep slashing rates, probably below inflation,'' said Robert Shiller, the Yale University economist who co-founded an index of house prices. ``We are starting to see a change in consumer psychology.''

    So-called negative real interest rates represent an emergency strategy by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and are fraught with risks. The central bank would be skewing incentives toward spending, away from saving, typically leading to asset booms and busts that have to be dealt with later.

    Negative real rates are ``a substantial danger zone to be in,'' said Marvin Goodfriend, a former senior policy adviser at the Richmond Fed bank. ``The Fed's mistakes have been erring too much on the side of ease, creating circumstances where you had either excessive inflation, or a situation where there is an excessive boom that goes on too long.''

    Adjusting Outlook

    The Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day meeting today and will announce its decision at about 2:15 p.m. in Washington tomorrow. Officials will also discuss updates to their three-year economic forecasts at the session.

    Bernanke, 54, and his colleagues on Jan. 22 lowered the target rate for overnight loans between banks by three-quarters of a percentage point. The cut was the biggest since the Fed began using the rate as its main policy tool in 1990 and followed a slide in stocks from Hong Kong to London that threatened to send U.S. equities down by more than 5 percent.

    The central bank will probably lower the rate to at least 2.25 percent in the first half, according to futures prices quoted on the Chicago Board of Trade. The chance of a half-point cut tomorrow is 88 percent, with 12 percent odds on a quarter- point.

    Inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index minus food and energy, was a 2.5 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, economists estimate. The Commerce Department releases the figures tomorrow.

    Mortgage Binge

    The last time the Fed pushed real rates so low was in 2005, in the middle of the three-year housing bubble, when consumers took on $2.9 trillion in new home-loan debt, the biggest increase of any three-year period on record.

    Aggressive rate cuts are justified if there's ``conclusive evidence'' that household income prospects are in danger, said Goodfriend, now a professor at the Tepper School of Business at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh.

    They might be. Real disposable income grew at a 2.1 percent annual pace in November, the slowest in 16 months, as higher food and energy costs eroded paychecks. Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell 6.1 percent in October from a year earlier, the most in at least six years. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is down 15 percent from its record on Oct. 11.

    The last time household real estate, stocks and real incomes all declined in a quarter was during the 1974 recession, according to calculations by Macroeconomic Advisers LLC.

    `Losing That Prop'

    ``Wealth had been rising because of strong home prices'' and stock gains, said Chris Varvares, president of Macroeconomic Advisers in St. Louis. ``Now, we are losing that prop to consumption, so it all comes down to growth in real income.''

    Varvares predicted that housing and investment portfolios will add nothing to consumption this year, while incomes, after inflation, may gradually rise ``so long as oil behaves.'' The firm expects the economy to grow at a 1 percent to 2 percent annual pace in the first half.

    ``A big part of the 75 basis point surprise was to blunt the worsening of financial conditions'' that may reduce employment and hurt income growth, Varvares said. The firm predicts a half-point cut tomorrow.

    ``That need not be the end,'' Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein, said in an interview. ``They can keep coming back and revisiting it every six weeks.''

    Feldstein, a member of the group that dates U.S. economic cycles, said any recession this year ``could be much more painful because of the fragility of the financial sector.''

    The Fed incorporates wealth effects, or the impact of changes in household assets on spending, in its economic model. Americans cut spending by about 5 cents for every $1 of decline in their home values or stock portfolios, economists estimate.

    ``We are likely to see another wave of problems in the consumer-credit side,'' John Thain, chief executive officer of Merrill Lynch & Co., said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last week. ``This is going to be exacerbated by the rise in unemployment and we have issues with higher energy prices.''

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...deo&refer=home

  3. #143

    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    US economic growth drops sharply


    US economic growth fell sharply in the last three months of 2007 as the credit crunch took effect, figures show.

    The US Department of Commerce says the economy grew at an annual rate of just 0.6% from October to December.

    In the previous three months, between July and September, the economy was growing at annual rate of 4.9%.

    The slowdown was triggered by a slump in building activity, which fell by 16.9%, the biggest fall in 25 years, as housing prices collapsed.

    Worse than expected

    The US slowdown is even bigger than predicted by analysts. who were expecting a reduction to a 1.2% annual growth rate.

    And it reinforces the view, recently put forward by the IMF, that the US economic slowdown will be longer and deeper than previously thought - and have a greater impact on the world economy.

    The IMF report suggested that even by the end of 2008, the US economy would still only be growing at a year-on-year rate of 0.8%.

    And 2007's overall growth rate of 2.2% is already the weakest since 2002, when the US was recovering from an earlier recession.

    Rescue plan

    The spiralling downturn in the US economy is spurring efforts by politicians and policy-makers to take corrective action.

    The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, has already cut interest rates to 3.5% from 4.25% this year in order to boost economic growth, and is expected to cut further when it finishes its regularly scheduled meeting later on Wednesday.

    And the US Congress and the Bush Administration have agreed an economic stimulus package which would add $150bn in tax rebates to the economy by the summer. The measure has already been passed by the House of Representatives but is still awaiting Senate approval.

    Even the head of the IMF, Dominque Strauss-Kahn, normally a fiscal conservative, has endorsed the need for both monetary and fiscal measures to help stabilise the situation.

    But there is little sign yet that the US housing market is bottoming out.

    This week, new data showed that US house prices were falling at their fastest rate since the 1930s, while foreclosures (repossessions) in 2007 topped two million after many sub-prime mortgages went sour.

  4. #144
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by Parchiao View Post
    US economic growth drops sharply


    US economic growth fell sharply in the last three months of 2007 as the credit crunch took effect, figures show.

    The US Department of Commerce says the economy grew at an annual rate of just 0.6% from October to December.

    In the previous three months, between July and September, the economy was growing at annual rate of 4.9%.

    The slowdown was triggered by a slump in building activity, which fell by 16.9%, the biggest fall in 25 years, as housing prices collapsed.

    Worse than expected

    The US slowdown is even bigger than predicted by analysts. who were expecting a reduction to a 1.2% annual growth rate.

    And it reinforces the view, recently put forward by the IMF, that the US economic slowdown will be longer and deeper than previously thought - and have a greater impact on the world economy.

    The IMF report suggested that even by the end of 2008, the US economy would still only be growing at a year-on-year rate of 0.8%.

    And 2007's overall growth rate of 2.2% is already the weakest since 2002, when the US was recovering from an earlier recession.

    Rescue plan

    The spiralling downturn in the US economy is spurring efforts by politicians and policy-makers to take corrective action.

    The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, has already cut interest rates to 3.5% from 4.25% this year in order to boost economic growth, and is expected to cut further when it finishes its regularly scheduled meeting later on Wednesday.

    And the US Congress and the Bush Administration have agreed an economic stimulus package which would add $150bn in tax rebates to the economy by the summer. The measure has already been passed by the House of Representatives but is still awaiting Senate approval.

    Even the head of the IMF, Dominque Strauss-Kahn, normally a fiscal conservative, has endorsed the need for both monetary and fiscal measures to help stabilise the situation.

    But there is little sign yet that the US housing market is bottoming out.

    This week, new data showed that US house prices were falling at their fastest rate since the 1930s, while foreclosures (repossessions) in 2007 topped two million after many sub-prime mortgages went sour.
    the rate cut and the stimulus package seems to come too late liao, damage has been done and it is spreading to other areas.

  5. #145
    Senior Member melvin's Avatar
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by raincool2005 View Post
    the rate cut and the stimulus package seems to come too late liao, damage has been done and it is spreading to other areas.
    50 basis pt cut still not enough! economic up only 0.6% am i right? So all tarde in red today! Friday still got the figures of the jobless coming?

  6. #146

    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    i have one advise - IGNORE THE FEDS.

    they are always lagging behind the real market trend. they cut rates only when its too late.

    as predicted, SGX is now at $9.5 and it may drop further
    Last edited by user111; 1st February 2008 at 11:59 AM.

  7. #147

    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by user111 View Post
    i have one advise - IGNORE THE FEDS.

    they are always lagging behind the real market trend. they cut rates only when its too late.

    as predicted, SGX is now at $9.5 and it may drop further

    Let it drop. The more it drop the more opportunities there are...

  8. #148
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    more downside likely to persist, before Olympics maybe will rally abit.


  9. #149

    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Let the media paints more gloomy pictures so that more people will panic sell.

    The black Monday was a golden opportunity to make money.

  10. #150

    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    There will be a mini bull due to CNY.

    Huat!!!

  11. #151
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by USM View Post
    There will be a mini bull due to CNY.

    Huat!!!
    yah.. small rally on Monday.. 1-2 days only.

  12. #152

    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Hi, Guys got any idea when would be the currency do better than (SGD1 = USD1.4),,i got fews $,$$$ on hands that still on hold after come back from US TRIP last year.....

  13. #153

    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by KRN33 View Post
    Hi, Guys got any idea when would be the currency do better than (SGD1 = USD1.4),,i got fews $,$$$ on hands that still on hold after come back from US TRIP last year.....
    How to tell given US economy is in the mess now.
    Just take note than U.S Fed might be cutting rate (might be lower than the inflation rate) again in order to stimulate the economy and financial market, which highly will devalue the USD again.

    However, don't quote me for this. This is only my personal opinion.
    Do your own homework, the best is trust your own judgment.

  14. #154
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by scanner View Post
    How to tell given US economy is in the mess now.
    Just take note than U.S Fed might be cutting rate (might be lower than the inflation rate) again in order to stimulate the economy and financial market, which highly will devalue the USD again.

    However, don't quote me for this. This is only my personal opinion.
    Do your own homework, the best is trust your own judgment.
    The Fed guys just want to show people that they did something according to their books, whether it works anot is secondary.

    On the overall, the economy is going into recession very likely. Those who still jump into shares on rebound are taking a big risk than ever.. The market is like "1 step forward and 3 steps backward"

  15. #155
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by KRN33 View Post
    Hi, Guys got any idea when would be the currency do better than (SGD1 = USD1.4),,i got fews $,$$$ on hands that still on hold after come back from US TRIP last year.....
    u got to wait for another few years.

    your is ok, in cash rite ?

  16. #156

    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by raincool2005 View Post
    yah.. small rally on Monday.. 1-2 days only.
    As usual, CNY rally.

    Huat!!!

  17. #157
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by USM View Post
    As usual, CNY rally.

    Huat!!!
    3100-3200 should be no problem, after that back to volatile times again.

  18. #158
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    I don't really think that +60 points is a rally though.

  19. #159

    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    The subprime "virus" has spread to....

    MFS becomes first subprime casualty in Australia to sell major stake

    http://business.theage.com.au/mfs-be...0204-1q2r.html

  20. #160
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell


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