View Poll Results: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell/avoid

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  • Buy

    18 26.09%
  • Sell

    5 7.25%
  • Hold

    27 39.13%
  • Avoid

    19 27.54%
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Thread: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

  1. #121

    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by raincool2005 View Post
    USM, lucky the big men started to talk..

    are u thinking to buy Citibank shares ? i am looking at it..
    Actually, the dust in Citigroup has not settled yet.

    If you want to buy into US financial sector, buy ML.

    Thanks to the media continuing painting glommy pictures (or the other way round). As such, the market will react accordingly. Look for opportunities when the time is right.

    Back at home, Venture's share price dropped to $7.75 at one time, this is simply lelong ..... Even if the recession kicks in, it will not affect the bottomline of Venture. It is not immediate. Such panic selling of the shares created golden opportunities to make money. Venture closed at $10.40 on last Friday. How much have you made for just 1 lot.

    Traders will not care so much what will happen tomorrow. Buy low and sell high. Sell once make money.

  2. #122
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by USM View Post
    Actually, the dust in Citigroup has not settled yet.

    If you want to buy into US financial sector, buy ML.

    Thanks to the media continuing painting glommy pictures (or the other way round). As such, the market will react accordingly. Look for opportunities when the time is right.

    Back at home, Venture's share price dropped to $7.75 at one time, this is simply lelong ..... Even if the recession kicks in, it will not affect the bottomline of Venture. It is not immediate. Such panic selling of the shares created golden opportunities to make money. Venture closed at $10.40 on last Friday. How much have you made for just 1 lot.

    Traders will not care so much what will happen tomorrow. Buy low and sell high. Sell once make money.
    USM, u may take a good look at Ausgroup... lelong like mad.. dropped from high of 1.60-1.70 to 1 dollar still have not being notice yet. It has a fair value of 2.30 based on 2007, clean records and strong book orders.

    Other than venture, the banks are nice too.. keppel, sembcorp, sia etc..
    Last edited by raincool2005; 27th January 2008 at 12:59 PM.

  3. #123
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by scanner View Post
    Seriously, I would rather hope, there will be another few rounds of sell down, which will make some of the companies shares attractive and plan to park some cash in those shares for a mid to long term.

    Anyway, I believe there will be more sell down if more bad news such as more banks need to write down on bad debt due to sub-prime and consumer credit card default...
    yes.. there will be but the drop will not be so much anymore.

  4. #124

    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by raincool2005 View Post
    yes.. there will be but the drop will not be so much anymore.
    Yes, market will not dropped so drastically, but trust me, bad times is not over yet.
    The hole that sub prime created is not fully exposed yet.
    No doubt, market is getting a clearer picture of the exposure and situation, the fear to spend will deter the U.S economy from recovering.

    Once U.S is down, do you think Asia market will not be hit?
    Think again, those politicians always assured their own people and investors that their markets will not be badly hit, but the truth is, majority of the world export goes to U.S and if American stop spending, do you think Asian and EU economies will be spared?

  5. #125
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by scanner View Post
    Yes, market will not dropped so drastically, but trust me, bad times is not over yet.
    The hole that sub prime created is not fully exposed yet.
    No doubt, market is getting a clearer picture of the exposure and situation, the fear to spend will deter the U.S economy from recovering.

    Once U.S is down, do you think Asia market will not be hit?
    Think again, those politicians always assured their own people and investors that their markets will not be badly hit, but the truth is, majority of the world export goes to U.S and if American stop spending, do you think Asian and EU economies will be spared?
    Scanner, i am refering to short-term opportunities in trading. I know things will be bad.

    USA is a $9.5 trillion dollar consumer (based on 2007), China spends about $1 trillion and India spends around $650 billion. China and India produces most goods and services for USA.

    if big brother USA catches a cold, maybe MC on for 6 months to 12 months, cuts down buying and spending, then his suppliers will have less business to do liao.

    some people argued that we have China to tahan for time being, i guess not so after August 2008 becos when the Olympics ended, there is no big demand anymore.

    unless USA can recover from its problems by Aug, then maybe some hope.

    now u may ask is it a good time to buy ? i would said get it really dirt cheap and wait for 1-2 years for global economic recovery.
    Last edited by raincool2005; 27th January 2008 at 09:49 PM.

  6. #126
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by USM View Post
    Actually, the dust in Citigroup has not settled yet.

    If you want to buy into US financial sector, buy ML.

    Thanks to the media continuing painting glommy pictures (or the other way round). As such, the market will react accordingly. Look for opportunities when the time is right.

    Back at home, Venture's share price dropped to $7.75 at one time, this is simply lelong ..... Even if the recession kicks in, it will not affect the bottomline of Venture. It is not immediate. Such panic selling of the shares created golden opportunities to make money. Venture closed at $10.40 on last Friday. How much have you made for just 1 lot.

    Traders will not care so much what will happen tomorrow. Buy low and sell high. Sell once make money.
    USM, can explain why u prefer ML than Citi ? i want to get it cheaper than our temasek and glc.
    Last edited by raincool2005; 27th January 2008 at 10:24 PM.

  7. #127

    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by raincool2005 View Post
    Scanner, i am refering to short-term opportunities in trading. I know things will be bad.

    USA is a $9.5 trillion dollar consumer (based on 2007), China spends about $1 trillion and India spends around $650 billion. China and India produces most goods and services for USA.

    if big brother USA catches a cold, maybe MC on for 6 months to 12 months, cuts down buying and spending, then his suppliers will have less business to do liao.

    some people argued that we have China to tahan for time being, i guess not so after August 2008 becos when the Olympics ended, there is no big demand anymore.

    unless USA can recover from its problems by Aug, then maybe some hope.

    now u may ask is it a good time to buy ? i would said get it really dirt cheap and wait for 1-2 years for global economic recovery.
    Short the market, when there is opportunity.
    However, those who stay invested need to pay close attention to the markets, its a roller coaster ride from now on....

    Good luck mate! More good years ahead!

  8. #128
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by scanner View Post
    Short the market, when there is opportunity.
    However, those who stay invested need to pay close attention to the markets, its a roller coaster ride from now on....

    Good luck mate! More good years ahead!
    you can't short the market anyhow... need to open some kind of trading credit account. if want to short... can, but must cover position within the day. else... you are at the mercy of the market. if position is not covered, SGX will force buy the shares at whatever closing price of the stock on T+3.

  9. #129

    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by mohgui View Post
    you can't short the market anyhow... need to open some kind of trading credit account.
    Err.. are you referring to me?

    Cheese, I've been playing shares for many years, but do I sounds novice....
    Last edited by scanner; 27th January 2008 at 11:37 PM.

  10. #130
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by mohgui View Post
    you can't short the market anyhow... need to open some kind of trading credit account. if want to short... can, but must cover position within the day. else... you are at the mercy of the market. if position is not covered, SGX will force buy the shares at whatever closing price of the stock on T+3.
    yes, u need a Share Borrowing account to short, the house will lend u the shares at an interest rate, and when it drops, u can buy back anytime into your portfolio. It is just opposite of normal buy low and sell high. However, if bullrun until like mad for weeks, u will be on paper loss.

    If dun have, u can short "NAKED", tat means u sell first but must buy back on the same day. If u did not buy back, SGX will buy back for u T+3 plus fees. And that day if suddenly bullrun, u will lose money.

    so far, i only did naked short big time last Nov, 20 lots at a certain blue chip, within 2 hrs it dropped and i covered back with a profit. It was actually a mistake but end up a blessing in disguise, i intended to take profits of my 2 lots but end up entering another zero by mistake.. and lucky it dropped due to other people taking profits too... which allows me to cover the remaining. Phew.. very dangerous.
    Last edited by raincool2005; 28th January 2008 at 12:05 AM.

  11. #131

    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by raincool2005 View Post
    so far, i only did once big last Nov, 20 lots at blue chip, within 2 hrs it dropped and i covered back with a profit.
    You, huat big big this time round...

  12. #132
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by scanner View Post
    You, huat big big this time round...
    Scanner, on the day my balls were shrinked when i realised i key in an extra zero, 2 lots become 20 lots. Lucky it dropped ! my broker was shocked but eventually happy becos the commission was so good for them. I ended up having a free lunch treat from my broker.
    Last edited by raincool2005; 28th January 2008 at 12:13 AM.

  13. #133

    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    see-saw, up and down, see-saw, up and downnnnnnn .......
    always the Light, .... always.

  14. #134
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by Canonised View Post
    see-saw, up and down, see-saw, up and downnnnnnn .......
    yes, this is the way 2008 will behave.

  15. #135
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Global Recession Risk Grows as U.S. `Damage' Spreads

    By Rich Miller

    Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy may already be in recession; other countries might not be far behind.

    Japan, Britain, Spain and Singapore, which together represent about 12 percent of the world economy, are vulnerable as fallout from the U.S. worsens their economic weakness. Even emerging markets, including China, are likely to suffer as exports to the U.S. wane.

    The result: Global growth may decelerate close to the 3 percent pace economists deem a worldwide recession, from a 4.7 percent rate in 2007. ``Some form'' of global recession ``is inevitable at some point,'' former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in a speech in Vancouver last week.

    The developing slump puts pressure on central bankers in Japan, the U.K. and the euro region to follow the lead of Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who last week accelerated interest- rate cuts in the U.S. with an emergency move to lower the benchmark rate by three-quarters of a percentage point. Policy makers may follow that with another cut of as much as half a point after a two-day meeting that starts tomorrow, futures trading indicates.

    ``The odds are shifting toward a more significant global monetary easing,'' says Richard Berner, co-head of global economics for Morgan Stanley in New York.

    Jim O'Neill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group in London, says growth in the first half of 2008 may be the ``weakest since 2002 and maybe even 2001,'' during the last global downturn. ``The economy is slowing everywhere,'' he says.

    Japanese Recession

    It's ``highly likely'' Japan is already in a recession or will enter one this quarter, Tetsufumi Yamakawa, chief Japan economist at Goldman in Tokyo, wrote in a report published today.

    A worldwide recession doesn't require a global contraction in output, which rarely happens; economists at the International Monetary Fund say it would take a slowdown in global growth to 3 percent or less. By that measure, three periods since 1985 qualify: 1990-1993, 1998 and 2001-2002.

    The contagion from the U.S., which according to the IMF represents about 21 percent of the global economy, is spreading via multiple channels. Less spending by American consumers and companies reduces demand for imported goods. The meltdown of the U.S. subprime-mortgage market has pushed up credit costs worldwide and forced European and Asian banks to write down billions of dollars in holdings. Tumbling U.S. stock prices are dragging down markets elsewhere.

    ``We'll see more collateral damage,'' says Allen Sinai, chief economist at Decision Economics in New York. ``The risk of a global recession is rising.''

    Catastrophe Improbable

    Such a catastrophe, while increasingly possible, isn't yet probable, economists say. Sinai puts the odds at 20 percent. Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, reckons it's about 30 percent.

    The global implications of a U.S. recession dominated discussions last week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. In Washington, the IMF postponed publication of its latest world economic forecast, originally due Jan. 25, to take into account recent market turbulence.

    Japan's economy is particularly at risk. Its housing market is slumping as stricter building-permit rules drag home starts to a four-decade low.

    A drop in construction demand led Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., the nation's biggest maker of steel girders, to lower its profit forecast Jan. 22.

    Yen's Toll

    ``Japan is on the brink of a recession,'' says Hiroshi Shiraishi, an economist at Lehman Brothers Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. ``Exports are supporting the economy, but with the U.S. slowdown they're likely to lose momentum.''

    The yen's 13 percent rise versus the dollar in the last six months is also taking a toll. The Japanese currency reached a 2 1/2-year high of 104.97 to the dollar last week and traded at 106.72 at 11:44 a.m. in Tokyo. That is near the break-even point for Japan's exporters, who say they can remain profitable as long as the currency is weaker than 106.6, according to a government survey.

    Kozo Yamamoto, head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's monetary policy panel, urged the Bank of Japan to cut its benchmark interest rate, already the lowest in the industrialized world at 0.5 percent.

    ``Concerns over a recession are emerging not only in the U.S., but in Japan as well,'' Yamamoto said in a Jan. 23 interview. ``The BOJ should cut rates back to zero immediately.''

    Credit Crunch

    Singapore may already be in a recession. Its economy contracted for the first time in 4 1/2 years in the fourth quarter as factory output slowed and electronics exports dropped. The cooling local real estate market worsened the slowdown for financial services firms.

    Housing is also slumping in the U.K., where loans for home purchases dropped to a two-year low last month. ``The credit crunch moved into its fourth month in December,'' Michael Coogan, director general of the Council of Mortgage Lenders in London, said Jan. 21. ``Lending volumes are likely to remain weak for the next few months.''

    Retail sales fell in December by the most in 11 months. ScS Upholstery Plc, owner of 96 sofa stores in the U.K., said Jan. 14 that earnings will suffer after ``disappointing'' December and January business.

    The U.K.'s biggest nightclub owner, Luminar Group Holdings Plc, said Jan. 18 that sales growth slowed as Britons spent less on nights out.

    ``It's a gloomy picture for the consumer,'' says James Knightley, an economist at ING Financial Markets in London. ``The prospect of recession is becoming more realistic.''

    BOE Prediction

    Retailers Tesco Plc and Marks & Spencer Plc this month called for interest-rate cuts to help consumers, who have 1.4 trillion pounds ($2.76 trillion) of debt. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the Bank of England will lower its main rate a quarter percentage point, to 5.25 percent, on Feb. 7.

    Spain is also grappling with a housing boom gone bust. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Spain's No. 2 lender, predicts property prices will fall this year and building permits will drop 25 percent.

    With more than 18 percent of gross domestic product coming from construction, Spain's economy is particularly susceptible to weakness in real estate.

    ``The main problem lies in construction but it has already spread to other sectors,'' says Gilles Moec, senior economist at Bank of America in London.

    ECB's Inflation Fight

    With other European countries, including Germany, showing signs of slowing, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet faces pressure to abandon his tough anti-inflation stance and cut interest rates. ``We'll see rate cuts in the European Union and in the U.K. this year,'' Barclays Plc President Bob Diamond said Jan. 24 in Davos.

    Hopes that China's fast-growing economy can take up the slack from a U.S.-led slowdown seem misplaced.

    ``If there is weakness in the world economy, the impact on the Chinese economy will be very serious,'' says Yu Yongding, director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and a former adviser to the central bank.

    China's growth slowed to a year-over-year pace of 11.2 percent in the fourth quarter, from 11.5 percent and 11.9 percent in the third and second quarters, respectively.

    In Davos, Klaus Kleinfeld, chief operating officer of Alcoa Inc., the world's third-largest aluminum producer, said he foresees ``a difficult year. I don't think the world can decouple itself from what's happening in the U.S.''

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...qFM&refer=home
    Last edited by raincool2005; 28th January 2008 at 04:06 PM.

  16. #136
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Singapore shares weaken sharply on worries over the US economy
    Posted: 28 January 2008 1758 hrs

    SINGAPORE : Singapore share prices closed 3.75 percent lower Monday as Asian exchanges tracked Wall Street's fall and investors took profits ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting starting Tuesday.

    Traders said investors are still worried over the American economy and the possibility of a US recession.

    The blue chip ST Index closed 118.42 points lower at 3,041.06 on a volume of nearly 1.4 billion shares.

    There were 190 advances against 593 declining issues.

    "This may be another testing week for global equities," Song Seng Wun, regional economist at CIMB-GK Research, said in a note to clients.

    US shares lost ground Friday following a volatile week amid lingering economic uncertainty.

    Investors were also awaiting US President George W. Bush's State of the Union address on Monday.

    Last Tuesday the US Fed, the central bank, made an emergency cut of 0.75 percent, bringing its key federal funds rate to 3.5 percent as turmoil rocked global stock markets and fears of a US recession intensified.

    The Federal Reserve is widely expected to trim borrowing costs again this week as insurance against a possible economic calamity.

    "The impact of the cut is really more psychological than real. The real impact is not that substantial, but it's more the signal. We've seen that the Fed is always willing to step in if they perceive that there is a threat to economic growth," said Chan Tuck Sing, UOB Kay Hian dealing director.

    Banking shares slumped, with DBS group losing 88 cents to S$18.06, United Overseas Bank down 58 cents at S$17.50 and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp falling 20 cents to S$7.60.

    Among property stocks, City Developments fell 68 cents to S$12.20, CapitaLand fell 28 cents to S$6.25, Keppel Land was down 22 cents at S$6.43.

    Singapore Airlines fell 46 cents to S$16.00 and Singapore Telecommunications declined 12 cents to S$3.64.

    Shipping giant Neptune Orient Lines finished 20 cents lower at S$3.28. - AFP/ch

  17. #137

    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Time to prepare ammo...

  18. #138

    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by raincool2005 View Post
    yes, u need a Share Borrowing account to short.
    the easier way is to use cfd to short. commission is a bit higher but the money comes in and out in real time (of course have to refresh the screen), hence its easy to keep track.

    about the 5x leverage ratio of cfd, my method is to use only 1x to minimise risk. no need to use up to the full 5x leverage.

    so for example if SGX is now at $10 and you want to short it at $10. Assuming your cfd account now has $10k inside, you just have to key in "sell" for 1 lot. at $10, you only need to use $10,000k / 5 = $2,000 to maintain your short position. then in real time, $2k (maintenance margin) will be deducted to maintain the short of 1 lot SGX@$10, and $8k will be left behind in the account. you can treat the $8k as buffer money in case the market turns against you.

    so if SGX really drops to $9.5, then your profit is $500 because u traded 1 lot. In realtime, your left over balance will be $8k + $500 = $8.5K. then if u decide to cover your short and buy in @ $9.5, after everything is closed and done properly, your account wil be $10500. commission will be deducted at EOD.

    similarly when you want to long SGX, if u use normal shares method u need to fork out 10K just to buy 1 lot. if u use cfd method to go long on SGX for 1 lot, u only need $2k to maintain the long position. so this is how i use cfd's 5x leverage to trade - not to aim for 5x the potential profit, but rather to reduce the maintanance margin cost to 1/5 of its original value.

    In my experience, there is no real need to check intraday prices. because for this kind of trade, its more worthwhile to take day positions and close your positions after a few days rather than trade intraday. that means your TA will be based on daily prices and not intraday prices.

    my take for SGX now is - now its still falling.
    i will wait for it to fall until $9+ then buy long until past last week's high was $11.

  19. #139
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by raincool2005 View Post
    Phew.. very dangerous.
    tell me about it. i also misunderstood the "shorting" concept at first. so went to short one counter and hoping it will fall. but lo-and-behold, Dow Jones went up for the next two days and i'm in deep sh|t. all i can do is to pray that my loss do not increase further.

    well, all i can say now is it was an expensive tuition fee i had to pay to know that "shorting" the wrong way is dangerous. if you miss the opportunity to contra... you are dead (depending on whether the price moves up or down lah).

    now... wiser liao

  20. #140
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    Default Re: SGX plunge today, would you buy/hold/sell

    Quote Originally Posted by mohgui View Post
    tell me about it. i also misunderstood the "shorting" concept at first. so went to short one counter and hoping it will fall. but lo-and-behold, Dow Jones went up for the next two days and i'm in deep sh|t. all i can do is to pray that my loss do not increase further.

    well, all i can say now is it was an expensive tuition fee i had to pay to know that "shorting" the wrong way is dangerous. if you miss the opportunity to contra... you are dead (depending on whether the price moves up or down lah).

    now... wiser liao
    u should have buy back on the same day.

    never mind, on the overall we are heading for recession mostly likely.

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