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Thread: On CPF returns

  1. #41
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    Default Re: On CPF returns

    Quote Originally Posted by sammy888 View Post
    eh...actually I know about that. Found that out from my cousin and relative in Malaysia long time back. What to do? heheh.. All I am doing now is work damn hard to earn and save for my old age survival alone. Kiss my CPF goodbye. I already know for a fact I will not see that money. I have no need to buy a house as i have one fully paid. I am diebetic so I know I will not live long as the claim 89 yrs old. I can't use much of it for medical or there is too little of it when my illness gets worst in time to come. I have no wife thus no kids. Now if I outlive my sis and her hubby, all my money will go to Singapore authority. And people said I complain about our leaders so much. heheh well as you can see..I might be one of those who will fall through their policy crack and expectation. So I have resolved to find my own way out...just look at my contribution to the nation that goes beyoud serving in NS, boost the economy and soon give away my CPF in time to come if there is anything left from more policy changes in the future. oh well....
    Please make a will and leave your money to some charity/ies in case u outlive your sister. Don't give it to the gahment - they got so much oredi !!!!

  2. #42

    Default Re: On CPF returns

    Quote Originally Posted by Silence Sky View Post
    Hahaha...I really do not know how much you really know about finance...

    Do you know what is the rate Australia banks are offering for 6 month and 12 month terms deposit for the past 10 years?
    How much has Euro dollar appreciated over the years?
    How much have China and India funds appreciated over the years?
    that's not finance that's history...

  3. #43

    Default Re: On CPF returns

    Quote Originally Posted by CSlye View Post
    wow...u must be a master on this subject ...can u perhaps enlighten us whether it is wise to invest on equities listed on sgx in the short, medium and long terms?
    you should talk to your RM about that... different ppl different risk profiles and tax positions.... can't have an advise that applies to all ppl....

  4. #44
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    Default Re: On CPF returns

    Quote Originally Posted by zj2000 View Post
    you should talk to your RM about that... different ppl different risk profiles and tax positions.... can't have an advise that applies to all ppl....
    exactly the point...u may find something good, but majority of us find it no good..and remember we born here, we grow up here, we live here, who else noes better than us?
    This is an electronic post which requires no signature.

  5. #45

    Default Re: On CPF returns

    Urmm Ö perhaps let me rephrase the question, what is your interpretation of Singapore equity market performance in the short, medium and long term (e.g. buy, hold or sell) base on your knowledge of the financial markets?

    Quote Originally Posted by zj2000 View Post
    you should talk to your RM about that... different ppl different risk profiles and tax positions.... can't have an advise that applies to all ppl....

  6. #46
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    Default Re: On CPF returns

    I say send in the accountants and see if the CPF boards are installing any gold taps.

  7. #47

    Default Re: On CPF returns

    Quote Originally Posted by sammy888 View Post
    eh...actually I know about that. Found that out from my cousin and relative in Malaysia long time back. What to do? heheh.. All I am doing now is work damn hard to earn and save for my old age survival alone. Kiss my CPF goodbye. I already know for a fact I will not see that money. I have no need to buy a house as i have one fully paid. I am diebetic so I know I will not live long as the claim 89 yrs old. I can't use much of it for medical or there is too little of it when my illness gets worst in time to come. I have no wife thus no kids. Now if I outlive my sis and her hubby, all my money will go to Singapore authority. And people said I complain about our leaders so much. heheh well as you can see..I might be one of those who will fall through their policy crack and expectation. So I have resolved to find my own way out...just look at my contribution to the nation that goes beyoud serving in NS, boost the economy and soon give away my CPF in time to come if there is anything left from more policy changes in the future. oh well....
    why don't you sell of your house and use your CPF to buy another? Unless the current house is 100% funded by CPF.... else you should be able to free up some money.

    Give up citizenship? Can get back CPF right?

  8. #48

    Default Re: On CPF returns

    Quote Originally Posted by Silence Sky View Post
    Hahaha...I really do not know how much you really know about finance...

    Do you know what is the rate Australia banks are offering for 6 month and 12 month terms deposit for the past 10 years?
    How much has Euro dollar appreciated over the years?
    How much have China and India funds appreciated over the years?
    Quote Originally Posted by zj2000 View Post
    that's not finance that's history...
    Hi; U claimed you know the markets well and you know your finance. After you provide answers to my questions, then we will touch on real term of ROI.
    Looking at history will give us a gauge on how well has our investments performed.
    If not what makes you say that our current CPF returns are good? What did you compared it with, the bank spot rates or what?

    How much should I be compensated for giving up using my 120k (minimum sum) for 30 years?
    How do you workout a fair compensation rate, based on what?
    You also have to remember at the end of 30 years, you don't get back your 120k in a lump sum. We are going to receive it in the form of annuity, and the money may out last our life.
    In this sense how much do you think we should be compensated for this risk?

    If I am correct, Citibank is offering 2% interest for its step up saving account, comes with free checking account, free remittance service, no minimum sum charges, no service charges for overseas withdrawal.
    How do you compare it with our CPF returns?
    Last edited by Silence Sky; 21st September 2007 at 09:58 AM.

  9. #49

    Default Re: On CPF returns

    Quote Originally Posted by Silence Sky View Post
    Hi; U claimed you know the markets well and you know your finance. After you provide answers to my questions, then we will touch on real term of ROI.
    Looking at history will give us a gauge on how well has our investments performed.
    If not what makes you say that our current CPF returns are good? What did you compared it with, the bank spot rates or what?

    How much should I be compensated for giving up using my 120k (minimum sum) for 30 years?
    How do you workout a fair compensation rate, based on what?
    You also have to remember at the end of 30 years, you don't get back your 120k in a lump sum. We are going to receive it in the form of annuity, and the money may out last our life.
    In this sense how much do you think we should be compensated for this risk?

    If I am correct, Citibank is offering 2% interest for its step up saving account, comes with free checking account, free remittance service, no minimum sum charges, no service charges for overseas withdrawal.
    How do you compare it with our CPF returns?
    let me put it in simple terms... it's irrelevant what overseas banks are offering on their FDs or how well China and India funds have performed since we are talking about very different risk profiles... can you accept that the rate on your SA fluctuates with currency movements? and in certain years even getting negative returns? if not then why are you comparing SA rate with those of much riskier assets?

    nxt question you have to ask is how reliable is the singapore government? will there be a day where they default on payment in to yor CPF? Compare that with equivalent assets on the market... mainly singapore sovereign bonds... what rate of return will you get on 30 yr sovereign bonds?

    When you retire you get back everything in your CPL OA and SA less the minimum sum.... altough you don't get back your money in a lump sum, interest will still be credited... the minimum sum is retained for your own good... though there are ppl that are careful with their money there are also those that will squander it within a year.... if you are the government and you want to protect the wellbeing of your ppl wouldn't you do the same? btw you do not need the whole minimum sum to buy the annuity.... some estimates put the cost at about 8-10k, the rest of the minimum sum will be distributed to you over 20 years... after which the annuity will take care of you for life...

    all this talk about getting GIC to invest the money is also flawed.... do you realise how high an equity mix you need to able to get a yied of more than 8%? Although some ppl would say that they'll gladly take on underperformance and downside risk to tap higher returns what about the others? The silent majority that just wants a stable predictable stream of payments in to their CPF?
    Last edited by zj2000; 21st September 2007 at 11:30 AM.

  10. #50
    Senior Member sammy888's Avatar
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    Default Re: On CPF returns

    Quote Originally Posted by wind30 View Post
    why don't you sell of your house and use your CPF to buy another? Unless the current house is 100% funded by CPF.... else you should be able to free up some money.

    Give up citizenship? Can get back CPF right?
    hehe...so you want me to uproot from a home since 1976 which I stayed with my mom and where mu dad passed away...totally paid up, MRT nearby, wet market, 7-11, tons of coffeeshop, near to East Coast....etc just so I can buy another 4 room flat? If I sell the house what I get for it will be about the same as what would cost me to buy another and maybe even more crazy amount to get the same facilities nearby like what I have now. Go thru all the "mah fun" just to circulate my money don;t seem to make enough sense.

    Condo might cause me even more plus possible topping up of real cash on top of that subjected to, of course, what standard of condo price range I am looking at lah. The property market is still very fickle and it's long term. You can't really free up your money that way without adding more expenses and inconvenient. For my mom and without a car, where I live it is so easy for them and me. Condo is too far from most of those stuff. that's what I feel lah. I am not an accounting or number person so I don't envision it in a monetary sense. To think about restart another long "slave" loan from a freaking bank for another 10 to 30 yrs. If they will lend to a person like me at 45 yrs for the maximum length of term(20 or 30yrs)..I doubt so. All this send chills down my spine.

    My best solution is to earn as much as I can. BE as creative with ways to improve my career (or jget a second job) to earn as much to stay one step ahead of inflation cost of living in Singapore. By the time I can't work no more and if I feel I can't afford to stay here at even the most basic level of comfort with what I have in my saving, insurance and investment then I will move back to Malaysia... give up my passport. heheh I bitch about such stuff but I am trying to be pro-active with looking for solutions lah. You have too..no one and I DO MEAN no one is going to help you if you don't help yourself . Thanks for the input though heh.

  11. #51

    Default Re: On CPF returns

    Quote Originally Posted by zj2000 View Post
    let me put it in simple terms... it's irrelevant what overseas banks are offering on their FDs or how well China and India funds have performed since we are talking about very different risk profiles... can you accept that the rate on your SA fluctuates with currency movements? and in certain years even getting negative returns? if not then why are you comparing SA rate with those of much riskier assets?

    We do not invest soley in currency, we can also invest in Gold and T-Bonds. Risk diversification... when spread over a long term (30-50 years) the risk will be very low. Having said that I am prepare to accept systematic risk which can't be diversified.

    nxt question you have to ask is how reliable is the singapore government? will there be a day where they default on payment in to yor CPF? Compare that with equivalent assets on the market... mainly singapore sovereign bonds... what rate of return will you get on 30 yr sovereign bonds?

    Singapore Goverment is not reliable. First is 55 years, now is 62, going to be 65, future 67.
    Singapore Goverment does not need to issue bonds, they are cash rich. The goverment issue bond just to support the bond market, becasue Singapore wants to be the financial Hub of Asia. Therefore, it is not correct to compare CPF returns with the Bond rates.


    When you retire you get back everything in your CPL OA and SA less the minimum sum.... altough you don't get back your money in a lump sum, interest will still be credited... the minimum sum is retained for your own good... though there are ppl that are careful with their money there are also those that will squander it within a year.... if you are the government and you want to protect the wellbeing of your ppl wouldn't you do the same? btw you do not need the whole minimum sum to buy the annuity.... some estimates put the cost at about 8-10k, the rest of the minimum sum will be distributed to you over 20 years... after which the annuity will take care of you for life...

    I look at it this way, when I receive one lump sum, I can make investment. Buy a house or machinery for rent. Beisde the rental, i can also make capital gains. The going rental rate is 1.3k for a three bed room flat. These are opportunity costs, and I think we are not compensated for it.

    all this talk about getting GIC to invest the money is also flawed.... do you realise how high an equity mix you need to able to get a yied of more than 8%? Although some ppl would say that they'll gladly take on underperformance and downside risk to tap higher returns what about the others? The silent majority that just wants a stable predictable stream of payments in to their CPF?
    The CPF is not going to let the money sleep under the bed. They have to invest it, if not it will losses its value over time due to inflation ect. The market rate for home loan is about 2.8 - 3.2%, and the car loan rate is about 3%. My question is why CPF only PAYS 2.5% for the OA? Every Singaporean buy a house and most buy a car. Do you have ROI data of those top investment banks over the past ten years?

    Gold has went up.
    Euro has went up.
    GST has went up.
    All went up except.....

  12. #52

    Default Re: On CPF returns

    Quote Originally Posted by Silence Sky View Post
    The CPF is not going to let the money sleep under the bed. They have to invest it, if not it will losses its value over time due to inflation ect. The market rate for home loan is about 2.8 - 3.2%, and the car loan rate is about 3%. My question is why CPF only PAYS 2.5% for the OA? Every Singaporean buy a house and most buy a car. Do you have ROI data of those top investment banks over the past ten years?

    Gold has went up.
    Euro has went up.
    GST has went up.
    All went up except.....
    the main aim is still to safe guard your money.... which is why the money can only be invested in safe stable assets.... commodities and currencys are among the most volatile assets available.... true equity is doing is doing very well in the past few years but in the middle of a recession will you still sing the same tune? or will you blame the government of incompetence and demand that they pay you back the capital lost from trading in risky assets? btw in case you do not know, you are allowed to use the OA and SA to invest in certain unit trust.... if you think the goverment a lousy job by giving such a low rate of return then by all means use your wisdom to invest your money in to a vehicle of your choice.... just so you know CPF recently revealed that most ppl that invested their OA got a return that is lower than 2.5%

    i don't know what you mean by T-bonds, i think you mean treasury bills.... do you know what the returns are on AAA rated bonds? definitely lower than what is paid in to your SA.... Gold is no longer safe... it is considered volatile....

    no time... talk later...

  13. #53

    Default Re: On CPF returns

    Quote Originally Posted by zj2000 View Post
    the main aim is still to safe guard your money.... which is why the money can only be invested in safe stable assets.... commodities and currencys are among the most volatile assets available.... true equity is doing is doing very well in the past few years but in the middle of a recession will you still sing the same tune? or will you blame the government of incompetence and demand that they pay you back the capital lost from trading in risky assets? btw in case you do not know, you are allowed to use the OA and SA to invest in certain unit trust.... if you think the goverment a lousy job by giving such a low rate of return then by all means use your wisdom to invest your money in to a vehicle of your choice.... just so you know CPF recently revealed that most ppl that invested their OA got a return that is lower than 2.5%

    i don't know what you mean by T-bonds, i think you mean treasury bills.... do you know what the returns are on AAA rated bonds? definitely lower than what is paid in to your SA.... Gold is no longer safe... it is considered volatile....

    no time... talk later...

    Everyone's appetite for risk is different. You may feel that the CPF current return is good but I may feel that the rate is inadequate.
    A simple example:
    In 1980 a four room flat cost $35k.
    I give up the chance to buy the flat and park the money with CPF.
    27 years later, a similar flat cost $250k.
    Is the CPF money + interest earned enough to buy the same flat 27 years later?

    I expect the GIC to be top performer when comes to investing, and not always stick to the safest investment products. Out source the investing Job to Warren Buffet, he knows what to do in a recession, there is always a put option.

    When risks are properly diversified, and over a long period of time, every investment should ride out of any recession comfortably. From history, which world recession last more than two years?
    In the recession period we still pay 2.6% for the home loan right?

    Pardon me, yes it is T-Bill. I have forgotten alot of things liao.
    Last edited by Silence Sky; 21st September 2007 at 11:12 PM.

  14. #54

    Default Re: On CPF returns

    Actually, there is one simple solution to the CPF minium sum problem.
    If the selling price of a HDB flat comes down by half, everything will be sloved.....
    Old people no need to wash toilet.

  15. #55

    Default Re: On CPF returns

    The man is definitely planning to safe guard your money and will do so for a very long time. He is also extremely concern about it to the point that he believes that people at the age of 55 are still not sufficiently mature to handle his money … perhaps people will truly be matured at 67 or so … kekekek

    I am trying to understand you better here …commodities and FX are volatile but are you saying that one should not take a long term view for better returns for these asset categories? Also, do you mean that one should only look at the returns of a triple A bond in isolation from the market rate of return to determine if it is “a really good deal”?

    Btw, still very on keen your views on the sg equity market in short, medium and long term.

    (Aside: T-bond stands for U.S. Treasury Bond just in case you are not aware of it - even though Silence Sky meant treasury bills)


    Quote Originally Posted by zj2000 View Post
    the main aim is still to safe guard your money.... which is why the money can only be invested in safe stable assets.... commodities and currencys are among the most volatile assets available.... true equity is doing is doing very well in the past few years but in the middle of a recession will you still sing the same tune? or will you blame the government of incompetence and demand that they pay you back the capital lost from trading in risky assets? btw in case you do not know, you are allowed to use the OA and SA to invest in certain unit trust.... if you think the goverment a lousy job by giving such a low rate of return then by all means use your wisdom to invest your money in to a vehicle of your choice.... just so you know CPF recently revealed that most ppl that invested their OA got a return that is lower than 2.5%

    i don't know what you mean by T-bonds, i think you mean treasury bills.... do you know what the returns are on AAA rated bonds? definitely lower than what is paid in to your SA.... Gold is no longer safe... it is considered volatile....

    no time... talk later...
    Last edited by CSlye; 22nd September 2007 at 01:09 AM.

  16. #56

    Default Re: On CPF returns

    Quote Originally Posted by CSlye View Post

    (Aside: T-bond stands for U.S. Treasury Bond just in case you are not aware of it - even though Silence Sky meant treasury bills)
    Hahah... I forgot about the terms liao... But ZJ2000 is the expert, surprise he point me the other way.
    Is Foreign FD very risky?
    Last edited by Silence Sky; 22nd September 2007 at 12:35 AM.

  17. #57
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    Default Re: On CPF returns

    For what it's worth... I think that one shouldn't play with foreign currencies unless you are playing with large enough an amount to influence the market forces. Heh.

  18. #58

    Default Re: On CPF returns

    Quote Originally Posted by zj2000 View Post
    ........nxt question you have to ask is how reliable is the singapore government? will there be a day where they default on payment in to yor CPF? Compare that with equivalent assets on the market... mainly singapore sovereign bonds... what rate of return will you get on 30 yr sovereign bonds?

    ........Although some ppl would say that they'll gladly take on underperformance and downside risk to tap higher returns what about the others? The silent majority that just wants a stable predictable stream of payments in to their CPF?
    I will not claim to be an expert in finance, but here are my few cents worth (no pun intended).
    I do not think that the govt will default payment of CPF, but by them holding the money till I possibly die, I do not see the difference.

    You mentioned that there is a silent majority who would want a stable stream of payments and go with the govt. plans, I don't know if you did any survey on that; assuming that might be true, I'm wondering why there isn't an opt-out option for the "vocal minority"?

    Sometimes, I just want the freedom to do what I wish with my own money, risk or no risk. A life that is totally safe, is not necessary more fulfilling than one is not as safe but has the power of decision.
    Last edited by ahbian; 22nd September 2007 at 03:22 PM.

  19. #59

    Default Re: On CPF returns

    The CPF policy still not fixed yet...still have some changes...
    I'm sure there are some options to it.


  20. #60

    Smile Re: On CPF returns

    which policy/ies not fixed yet. i believe that current discussions are on the rate of returns.

    Quote Originally Posted by Deceased View Post
    The CPF policy still not fixed yet...still have some changes...
    I'm sure there are some options to it.


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