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Thread: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

  1. #101
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Based on latest economic reports, it is clearly seen that USA economy is slowing down, if not handled properly, the landing will go down hard. Recession is now a possibility, added by the current credit crunch and high oil price. This is no joke.

    dun cut rate means credit crunch will worsen, but if cut rate means inflation will pick up, this is very bad..

    better stop investing in hobby for now, i am cutting down on costs and expenses.
    Last edited by raincool2005; 16th September 2007 at 06:38 PM.

  2. #102

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Wow, just look at Northen Rock, hovering at 12 pounds at the start of the year, now trading at 3 pounds. One of the biggest mortgage lenders in the UK, perfectly good company, but cannot finance it's operations simply because there isn't any liquidity in the markets. This is so much like how countries like Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and South Korea got hit during the Asian financial crisis, everybody just went short or simply bailed out. See how negative sentiments can quickly affect the markets. Wait till the Fed lowers interest rates, and see how the Japan yen carry trades get hit in return, and maybe the yen itself.

  3. #103

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Tonight is the most important night.

    Everyone is eyeing on the Fed cut rate.
    0.25% is everyone expectation.
    0.5% is a bonus.
    no cut is disaster.

    Bull or Bear?


  4. #104

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Once again the bull fight back. As you can see from Singapore Market since Monday, there are still many buyers around. I suspect that some institutions are behind.

    MOM has also reiterated that Singapore economy will continue to grow despite the financial turmoil. Overall, I still think that Asia especially Singapore is still very robust going forward.

    Last but not least, there is no clear indicator that US is going into recession. We have to see a trend, i.e. economic data for a few quarters in order to determine whether US economy is slowing down. Until then, we cannot simply conclude anything. Again, it is the work of the media to paint the glommy picture so that normal retail investors without much info will sell their portfolios at cheaper rates.

    Look at one counter in Singapore - SembCorp, trading at $6.00 now. Before that it was down to as low as $4.65 a few weeks ago due to panic selling.

  5. #105
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by USM View Post
    Once again the bull fight back. As you can see from Singapore Market since Monday, there are still many buyers around. I suspect that some institutions are behind.

    MOM has also reiterated that Singapore economy will continue to grow despite the financial turmoil. Overall, I still think that Asia especially Singapore is still very robust going forward.

    Last but not least, there is no clear indicator that US is going into recession. We have to see a trend, i.e. economic data for a few quarters in order to determine whether US economy is slowing down. Until then, we cannot simply conclude anything. Again, it is the work of the media to paint the glommy picture so that normal retail investors without much info will sell their portfolios at cheaper rates.

    Look at one counter in Singapore - SembCorp, trading at $6.00 now. Before that it was down to as low as $4.65 a few weeks ago due to panic selling.
    me into Singapore Petroleum. Sold Sembmarine at 4.52.

  6. #106

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by USM View Post
    Look at one counter in Singapore - SembCorp, trading at $6.00 now. Before that it was down to as low as $4.65 a few weeks ago due to panic selling.

    DBS also trading at 20-21> but kanna whacked down to 19.2-19.3 range within 2 days.

    I noticed the selldown is not by retail investors, hundreds lots by hundreds lots = millions of dollars involved within these 2 days.

    During this panic selling, this is the best time to pick up cheap, potential counters.


  7. #107

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by raincool2005 View Post
    me into Singapore Petroleum. Sold Sembmarine at 4.52.
    I believe that you have already made thousands of dollars since the financial turmoil started. Well done.

    Those hedge fund jokers trying to short the markets a few weeks ago but were all "killed" by the central bank of each country. That explained why the indexes went down so much in those weeks, and then suddenly recovered back everything. For example, STI was down to 2,900 points before powered back to 3,500++. Some invisible hands are doing the tricks here. I still remmeber when STI was at 2,900, many analysts / broking houses with the help of the media painted a very gloomy picture, such as we are in a bear market now, etc. But what happened now?

    Such turmoil provides great oppoartunity for investors to buy quality stocks at dirt cheap prices.

    We have to look out for economic indicators for a few quarters from US in order to determine whether it is slowing now or not. Don't just listen to hearsay, etc.

  8. #108

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by Deceased View Post
    DBS also trading at 20-21> but kanna whacked down to 19.2-19.3 range within 2 days.

    I noticed the selldown is not by retail investors, hundreds lots by hundreds lots = millions of dollars involved within these 2 days.

    During this panic selling, this is the best time to pick up cheap, potential counters.

    Yes, I agree. Like what I said earlier on, these were done by institutions especially hedge funds. That was why the volumes were so high. However, when the central bank intervened, you will know what will happen. How can anyone go against the central bank which has so much money to fight against you.

  9. #109
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    now watching some marine stocks with yards in batam/bintan, fearful investors has made some real cheap.

    btw, Chemoil dropped a lot due to profit warning. I nearly went in at 0.625 but forget abt it and later BT mentioned an oversupply of marine fuels in the market, damm lucky.

    As for banks, keep a close watch on them. BUY when drop.
    Last edited by raincool2005; 18th September 2007 at 11:04 PM.

  10. #110
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by USM View Post
    I believe that you have already made thousands of dollars since the financial turmoil started. Well done.

    Those hedge fund jokers trying to short the markets a few weeks ago but were all "killed" by the central bank of each country. That explained why the indexes went down so much in those weeks, and then suddenly recovered back everything. For example, STI was down to 2,900 points before powered back to 3,500++. Some invisible hands are doing the tricks here. I still remmeber when STI was at 2,900, many analysts / broking houses with the help of the media painted a very gloomy picture, such as we are in a bear market now, etc. But what happened now?

    Such turmoil provides great oppoartunity for investors to buy quality stocks at dirt cheap prices.

    We have to look out for economic indicators for a few quarters from US in order to determine whether it is slowing now or not. Don't just listen to hearsay, etc.
    the indicators will not be as good as before.. the credit problem will made smaller but inflation may grow becos of rate cut.

    we are seeing a slowdown in US, just a question of how hard the landing will be. Worse if there's a military confrontation with Iran.

    as for China, they are overheating !

    So.. do take profits when u see " greed " in market sentiment, sell into strength and wait for weakness to come again.
    Last edited by raincool2005; 18th September 2007 at 11:16 PM.

  11. #111

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Let why nowadays, there is no such thing as long term investment. Sell when you have made profits instead of unrealised gains.

    Everyone talks about China economy is overheating, so what? Millions of Chinese defied the warning and continue to punt the markets. Well, with so much foreign reserves by Bank of China, it won't be difficult for it to intervene the market should there be any financial turmoil. Take note that next year in 2008 Olympics Game, because of national face, BOC won't allow any threat. Therefore, China will continue to propel, at least after the Olympics is over.

  12. #112
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by USM View Post
    Let why nowadays, there is no such thing as long term investment. Sell when you have made profits instead of unrealised gains.

    Everyone talks about China economy is overheating, so what? Millions of Chinese defied the warning and continue to punt the markets. Well, with so much foreign reserves by Bank of China, it won't be difficult for it to intervene the market should there be any financial turmoil. Take note that next year in 2008 Olympics Game, because of national face, BOC won't allow any threat. Therefore, China will continue to propel, at least after the Olympics is over.
    the chinese government will keep the market up to let the people happy, the needle to burst this whole thing maybe Taiwan. It is the best time for Taiwan to declare independence when the games started.

    we got very exciting movies to see in year 2008 ! USA Presidential Elections in 2008 also ! and Iran's nuclear issue.
    Last edited by raincool2005; 18th September 2007 at 11:36 PM.

  13. #113

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by a half point to 4.75 percent, the first cut in four years, hoping to keep the U.S. from sinking into a recession sparked by spreading housing-market fallout.

    ``Developments in financial markets since the Committee's last regular meeting have increased the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook,'' the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement after meeting today in Washington. ``The Committee will continue to assess the effects of these and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.''

    The larger-than-forecast reduction by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, facing his biggest test since succeeding Alan Greenspan 19 months ago, suggests that officials see a serious risk of an economic slump. The six-year expansion is threatened by job losses and a worsening housing downturn.

    ``Economic growth was moderate during the first half of the year, but the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing correction, and to restrain economic growth more generally,'' the FOMC said.

    Today's decision was unanimous. Core inflation has improved ``modestly'' this year, while some risks remain, the Fed said.

    ``Today's action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time,'' the statement said.

    Change in Direction

    The federal funds rate, which banks charge each other for loans, had stood at 5.25 percent since June 2006. That's when the Fed ended a two-year run of increases that lifted the rate from a four-decade low of 1 percent.

    Most economists anticipated a quarter-point, and traders pared bets on a bigger move in recent days as some Fed officials signaled they would be reluctant to back a half-point cut.

    The Fed's Board of Governors also lowered the rate on direct loans to banks by half a percentage point to 5.25 percent.

    The Fed first reduced the so-called discount rate by a half point on Aug. 17 in a surprise move to restore confidence after some companies found it hard to obtain funds as investors fled riskier assets. The credit crunch was caused by losses in securities tied to subprime mortgages.

    The half-point reduction in the federal funds target was forecast by 23 of 134 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. One hundred and five predicted a reduction of 25 basis points while six forecast no change. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.

    ``It's a good risk management move,'' Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, said before the decision. ``If you do 50 and then subsequently find out that 25 would have been sufficient, I don't think that much is lost. The other way around, you do 25 and you find out you should have done 50, that could be pretty bad.''

    Investors began anticipating a reduction on Aug. 9, a week before the Fed made the initial discount-rate cut and said risks to growth have ``increased appreciably.'' Two weeks later, Bernanke said in a speech that the central bank would ``act as needed to limit the adverse effects on the broader economy that may arise from the disruptions in financial markets.''

    The decision comes two days before Bernanke faces lawmakers in a House Financial Services Committee hearing on the mortgage- market crisis. Representative Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who heads the panel, on Sept. 7 called for a ``meaningful'' rate cut by the Fed.

    Policy makers were forced to shift their focus to growth from inflation in August as rising defaults on subprime mortgages rippled through global credit markets. Asset-backed commercial paper contracted by the most in at least seven years and Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage company, was shut out of the market.

    Economic reports show that the deepening recession in housing is taking a toll on other industries. The Labor Department said Sept. 7 that employers cut 4,000 workers in August. Job growth has been slowing since June, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart acknowledged. August figures for retail sales and industrial production were below economists' forecasts.

    Officials including Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin and San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen highlighted the risks to spending in speeches this month. Teams of Fed economists also ran what-if scenarios to supplement the central forecast given to the FOMC members today.

    Inflation has also receded. The Fed's preferred price gauge, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 1.9 percent from a year earlier in July, within the 1 percent to 2 percent comfort range stated by several officials. The Labor Department said today that producer prices fell 1.4 percent in August, more than economists predicted.

    Financial markets have remained in flux. The benchmark three-month borrowing rate between banks, known as Libor, has climbed to 5.59 from 5.36 percent at the end of July, after hitting 5.73 percent on Sept. 7. Fed officials ``clearly'' need to pay attention to the Libor increase, Mishkin said Sept. 10.

    The yield on two-year U.S. Treasury notes has dropped about 1 percentage point in the past three months as investors began to anticipate a series of rate cuts.

    ``They ought to be doing something strong and if anything be leading the markets rather than lagging them,'' Alan Blinder, a former Fed vice chairman who is now an economics professor at Princeton University in New Jersey, said before today's decision.



    Last edited by Deceased; 19th September 2007 at 02:23 AM.

  14. #114

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    As expected, the Fed cheered the market by cutting more rate than what the market is expected.

    The bull is back!!!

    Good luck to those who short sell the market. The market will be bullish all the way till 2009, at least.

  15. #115
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by Deceased View Post
    Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by a half point to 4.75 percent, the first cut in four years, hoping to keep the U.S. from sinking into a recession sparked by spreading housing-market fallout.

    ``Developments in financial markets since the Committee's last regular meeting have increased the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook,'' the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement after meeting today in Washington. ``The Committee will continue to assess the effects of these and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.''

    The larger-than-forecast reduction by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, facing his biggest test since succeeding Alan Greenspan 19 months ago, suggests that officials see a serious risk of an economic slump. The six-year expansion is threatened by job losses and a worsening housing downturn.

    ``Economic growth was moderate during the first half of the year, but the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing correction, and to restrain economic growth more generally,'' the FOMC said.

    Today's decision was unanimous. Core inflation has improved ``modestly'' this year, while some risks remain, the Fed said.

    ``Today's action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time,'' the statement said.

    Change in Direction

    The federal funds rate, which banks charge each other for loans, had stood at 5.25 percent since June 2006. That's when the Fed ended a two-year run of increases that lifted the rate from a four-decade low of 1 percent.

    Most economists anticipated a quarter-point, and traders pared bets on a bigger move in recent days as some Fed officials signaled they would be reluctant to back a half-point cut.

    The Fed's Board of Governors also lowered the rate on direct loans to banks by half a percentage point to 5.25 percent.

    The Fed first reduced the so-called discount rate by a half point on Aug. 17 in a surprise move to restore confidence after some companies found it hard to obtain funds as investors fled riskier assets. The credit crunch was caused by losses in securities tied to subprime mortgages.

    The half-point reduction in the federal funds target was forecast by 23 of 134 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. One hundred and five predicted a reduction of 25 basis points while six forecast no change. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.

    ``It's a good risk management move,'' Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, said before the decision. ``If you do 50 and then subsequently find out that 25 would have been sufficient, I don't think that much is lost. The other way around, you do 25 and you find out you should have done 50, that could be pretty bad.''

    Investors began anticipating a reduction on Aug. 9, a week before the Fed made the initial discount-rate cut and said risks to growth have ``increased appreciably.'' Two weeks later, Bernanke said in a speech that the central bank would ``act as needed to limit the adverse effects on the broader economy that may arise from the disruptions in financial markets.''

    The decision comes two days before Bernanke faces lawmakers in a House Financial Services Committee hearing on the mortgage- market crisis. Representative Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who heads the panel, on Sept. 7 called for a ``meaningful'' rate cut by the Fed.

    Policy makers were forced to shift their focus to growth from inflation in August as rising defaults on subprime mortgages rippled through global credit markets. Asset-backed commercial paper contracted by the most in at least seven years and Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage company, was shut out of the market.

    Economic reports show that the deepening recession in housing is taking a toll on other industries. The Labor Department said Sept. 7 that employers cut 4,000 workers in August. Job growth has been slowing since June, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart acknowledged. August figures for retail sales and industrial production were below economists' forecasts.

    Officials including Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin and San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen highlighted the risks to spending in speeches this month. Teams of Fed economists also ran what-if scenarios to supplement the central forecast given to the FOMC members today.

    Inflation has also receded. The Fed's preferred price gauge, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 1.9 percent from a year earlier in July, within the 1 percent to 2 percent comfort range stated by several officials. The Labor Department said today that producer prices fell 1.4 percent in August, more than economists predicted.

    Financial markets have remained in flux. The benchmark three-month borrowing rate between banks, known as Libor, has climbed to 5.59 from 5.36 percent at the end of July, after hitting 5.73 percent on Sept. 7. Fed officials ``clearly'' need to pay attention to the Libor increase, Mishkin said Sept. 10.

    The yield on two-year U.S. Treasury notes has dropped about 1 percentage point in the past three months as investors began to anticipate a series of rate cuts.

    ``They ought to be doing something strong and if anything be leading the markets rather than lagging them,'' Alan Blinder, a former Fed vice chairman who is now an economics professor at Princeton University in New Jersey, said before today's decision.



    sell into strength if u can now, i took profits today. Rate cut's party will not last, soon people will re-focus their eyes onto credit news.

  16. #116

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by raincool2005 View Post
    sell into strength if u can now, i took profits today. Rate cut's party will not last, soon people will re-focus their eyes onto credit news.
    hmm have the same tots.. wow lotsa stock gurus here

  17. #117

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by raincool2005 View Post
    sell into strength if u can now, i took profits today. Rate cut's party will not last, soon people will re-focus their eyes onto credit news.
    Not much profits to take...even take...only can drink 1 cup of soya bean.
    So waiting for longer profits.

    If dips doesn't matter also, will collect more at bottom.

    Is a waitin game.


  18. #118
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    tonite will be one more rally, next week will be back to normal
    Last edited by raincool2005; 19th September 2007 at 08:22 PM.

  19. #119

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    It doesn't matter whether the market is up and down. The fundamentals remain strong in Asia.

    Only when there is a clearer sign that US economy is slowing down, then we will be affected.

    For the last few months, I can see that many folks are gathering at Stock Broking firms with all the simling faces. Many have made a killing. No need or no mood to work for them as making money from the stock market is relatively easy.

  20. #120

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by USM View Post
    It doesn't matter whether the market is up and down. The fundamentals remain strong in Asia.

    Only when there is a clearer sign that US economy is slowing down, then we will be affected.

    For the last few months, I can see that many folks are gathering at Stock Broking firms with all the simling faces. Many have made a killing. No need or no mood to work for them as making money from the stock market is relatively easy.
    I don't quite agree with you, I would have added that it is also relatively easy to loose all your money in the stock market. All it takes is greed and a longer term correction that inches down a bit at a time day after day, strangling punters who thrive on volatility. There may also come a point when money starts to flow out of the local stock market and into other markets, so even if the fundamentals are stong, any stock maket can always underperform.

    As for the lowering of the fed rate, it does not necessarily mean that the problems in the US housing sector will go away. The rate cut will reduce the interest element payable for mortgages pegged to a variable rate like the fed rate. Everyone who has taken out a housing loan will now what this is. To really take advantage of lower interest rate environment, borrowers need to refinance their loans at the new lower interest rates, however this is unlikely to happen as most of the borrowers are of poor credit quality to begin with, and with the credit crunch, mortgage lenders are even less willing to lend.

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