View Poll Results: Who suffered from recent meltdown?

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  • Got shares, stuck on my portfiolio and am stuck with a lot of paper value loss

    9 75.00%
  • Cut loss and now waiting to stay invested

    2 16.67%
  • Sold everything on the high and out

    1 8.33%
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Thread: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

  1. #361
    Senior Member melvin's Avatar
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by raincool2005 View Post
    yes, tonite.

    it is a not a good sign to cut rates 3rd time within half a year, it shows America's economy is in deep trouble.
    Wake up to a morning of buangz.... WJ, NYSE, DJ, NESDAQ, NIKKEI all trade in the negative zone...... Although FED cut rates by Quarter % pts but market like no interest as expect to have more cut! Haizzz...........

    Economy really slowing meh?

    Fed trims base rate by quarter point, cites 'slowing' economy
    Posted: 12 December 2007 0328 hrs

    WASHINGTON : The Federal Reserve cut its base federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point on Tuesday to 4.25 percent in an effort to shore up economic activity in the face of weak housing and credit turmoil.

    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9-1 in favour of the action, with one member supporting a half-point reduction.

    "Incoming information suggests that economic growth is slowing, reflecting the intensification of the housing correction and some softening in business and consumer spending," the panel said in a statement announcing the decision.

    "Moreover, strains in financial markets have increased in recent weeks. Today's action, combined with the policy actions taken earlier, should help promote moderate growth over time."

    The central bank also cut its discount rate, a previously little-used tool for direct lending to commercial banks when credit is scarce, by a quarter point to 4.75 percent. Some analysts had forecast a bigger reduction.

    Even though the world's biggest economy has managed solid growth over the second and third quarters of 2007, some analysts say the Fed must be prepared for a downturn in the face of tight credit and a worsening housing slump.

    "Recent developments, including the deterioration in financial market conditions, have increased the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for economic growth and inflation," the FOMC statement said.

    "The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth."

    The panel headed by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke almost unanimously favoured a reduction. But voting against was Boston Fed chief Eric Rosengren, who wanted to lower the federal funds rate by 50 basis points.

    Wall Street sold off sharply immediately after the announcement, apparently concerned that the Fed acknowledged deeper economic problems but only made an incremental rate move.

    "A quarter point isn't a heck of a lot and the stock market is concerned there isn't enough liquidity," said Robert Macintosh, chief economist at Eaton Vance. "I just don't know what a quarter point will accomplish."

    But Scott Anderson, senior economist at Wells Fargo, called the move "a balanced and proper risk management decision to mitigate the downside risks to growth but cognizant of the fact that panicked or aggressive cuts might end up doing more harm than good."

    Anderson said the Fed's statement "took out the balanced assessment of risks and seemed to focus on the deterioration of financial market conditions."

    As a result, he said, "I think this opens the door for further cuts down the road." - AFP/de

  2. #362
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    looks like US is heading for a recession...

  3. #363
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Morgan Stanley issues full US recession alert

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...1/cnusa111.xml


  4. #364

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    the sub-prime issue is a major issue which will drag all sectors down. when banks are asking the umbrellas to b returned, all will b soaked.

    a common advice often heard in times of finiancial turbulence: cut loss and cash out. then lie low and wait for for the sun to rise again in a yr or 2. cash is king in a recession.

    so, raincool, what's your advice?

  5. #365
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by Quest View Post
    the sub-prime issue is a major issue which will drag all sectors down. when banks are asking the umbrellas to b returned, all will b soaked.

    a common advice often heard in times of finiancial turbulence: cut loss and cash out. then lie low and wait for for the sun to rise again in a yr or 2. cash is king in a recession.

    so, raincool, what's your advice?
    collect cash as much as possible, do not collect shares, clear credit and loans as much as possible.

    when recession kicks in, buy shares and property at dirt cheap prices.
    Last edited by raincool2005; 15th December 2007 at 11:52 AM.

  6. #366
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Morgan Stanley Asia chairman says US heading for recession

    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...317680/1/.html

    now i understand why we can be affected. it is still back to the supply and demand theory of economics

    "Growth in Asia was export led, with the American consumer often the "end game" of the Asian growth machine, he said.

    The US is a 9.5 trillion US dollar consumer. China is a 1.0 trillion US dollar consumer. India's a 650 billion US dollar consumer," he said.

    "Mathematically, it is almost impossible for the young dynamic consumers of China and India to fill the void that would be left by what is likely to be a significant shortfall of US consumer demand."
    Last edited by raincool2005; 17th December 2007 at 01:15 AM.

  7. #367
    Senior Member melvin's Avatar
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    US Fed proposes new rules to clean up mortgage lending
    Posted: 18 December 2007 2254 hrs

    WASHINGTON : Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said on Tuesday that the central bank was proposing new rules to clean up mortgage lending which are also aimed at protecting home buyers from potential fraud.

    The Fed is racing to tighten up the rules governing home loans amid one of the worst US housing slumps in decades, which has been worsened by a surge in home foreclosures.

    "We are meeting today to discuss proposed regulatory amendments to protect consumers from fraud, deception, and unfairness in the mortgage market," Bernanke said in a statement.

    Some of the proposed rules specifically address sub-prime mortgages granted to Americans with patchy credit.

    Defaults on sub-prime mortgages have been responsible for hundreds of thousands of home foreclosures this year and government agencies are probing mounting reports of mortgage fraud.

    Bernanke said "market discipline" had broken down in some cases during a years-long housing boom which has been followed by an almost two-year long housing market downturn.

    "The consequences, as we are currently seeing, can include the proliferation of unfair and deceptive practices that can be devastating to consumers and communities," Bernanke said.

    The Fed said it was acting because the mortgage market and its financing had become more complex and multi-layered in recent years. Officials said the proposals would not significantly affect mortgage availability.

    The proposals affecting sub-prime home loans would bar a lender from granting a mortgage without assessing a borrower's ability to repay the loan from sources other than the home's value.

    Some lenders offered so-called "no doc" loans during the housing boom, enabling people on low incomes to get on the property ladder, but "no document" loans make it difficult to determine a borrower's true financial health.

    The sub-prime proposals would also prohibit a lender from issuing a loan without verifying a borrower's income and assets.

    Regarding non-subprime loans, the new rules would bar lenders from paying mortgage brokers a fee to market higher-rate home loans, as well as barring a creditor or broker from coercing a home appraiser to misrepresent the value of a property.

    Other proposals would stop banks and lenders from advertising a mortgage interest rate as "fixed" when the rate is not truly fixed over the term of the loan.

    The Fed is acting deep into a housing slump which has seen numerous mortgage firms and lenders go out of business, especially in areas such as Florida and California that have borne the brunt of the downturn.

    Some economists fear the housing meltdown and multi-billion dollars losses announced by major banks on their mortgage investments could derail wider US economic growth.

    The Fed announced its proposals as the government reported that US home construction fell 3.7 percent in November, partly as single-family home building dropped to its lowest level in more than 16 years.

    The proposals will be open to industry feedback before being finalised by the Fed which regulates US banks and lending institutions. - AFP/ir/de
    Will this be of any help?

  8. #368
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Guys, question...

    How can a person in SG invest in US stocks directly (ala eTrade)? I used to have an eTrade account but it no longer is valid since I no longer have a US address to my name and I want to buy/trade some stocks in the US market.

    Thanks...

  9. #369
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by melvin View Post
    US Fed proposes new rules to clean up mortgage lending
    Posted: 18 December 2007 2254 hrs



    Will this be of any help?
    BETTER THAN NOTHING..

  10. #370
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    watch out for oil related stocks, pick them when they are cheap.

    crude oil will hit $100 sooner or later... not in 2007 ? then 2008, those working in oil industry getting big big bonus this year again.
    Last edited by raincool2005; 19th December 2007 at 07:39 PM.

  11. #371
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    looks like there is no new year rally due to forcasts of slower growth in USA.

    if this slowdown is not handled properly, it will turn out to be a recession... (if when it happens, u can buy lenses and cameras at cheap bargains)
    Last edited by raincool2005; 3rd January 2008 at 04:39 PM.

  12. #372
    Senior Member melvin's Avatar
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Asia welcome the New Year from the RED ZONE!

    Gold price breaks 28-year record to hit new peak
    Posted: 03 January 2008 0059hrs

    LONDON : Unrest in Pakistan, a faltering dollar and surging oil futures sent the price of gold soaring to a record high on Wednesday, beating its previous highest level set 28 years ago.

    The precious metal rose to US$859, smashing its peak of US$850 an ounce reached on January 21, 1980. It later slipped back to US$855.28 on profit-taking.

    Price movements were slightly exaggerated by the lightness of holiday trade, which meant large transactions could influence the market more than usual, analysts said.

    "Although conditions remain on the thin side ... (gold's) move suggests that funds may have made additional moves into bullion with Pakistan remaining on edge and investors nervous about financial markets," said Kitco Bullion Dealers' analyst Jon Nadler.

    "A sharp rise in crude oil ... and a softer US dollar" contributed to gold's rally, he added.

    Political unrest in Pakistan has led to interest in gold because the precious metal is regarded as a haven in troubled times.

    Gold rallied "as the dollar remained in negative territory while safe-haven related buying continued to be seen in reaction to violence in Pakistan," said James Moore of thebulliondesk.com.

    Gold prices were also winning support from a weak dollar, which fell against the euro on Wednesday in the wake of disappointing US manufacturing data, dealers said.

    A falling US unit encourages demand for dollar-priced commodities such as gold because it makes them cheaper for buyers using stronger currencies.

    Higher oil prices also encourage the buying of gold.

    Gold is seen as a defence against inflation, which is being driven in many countries by higher oil prices.

    - AFP /ls

  13. #373

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Outlook for Asian tigers unsteady

    The latest economic data from South Korea and Singapore suggests that the slowdown in US economic growth could be starting to hit East Asia.

    South Korea's exports increased by a worse-than-expected 15.5% to $33.25bn (16.8bn) in December, as it saw its first monthly trade deficit since 2003.

    Separately, Singapore's economy shrank in the past three months for the first time in five years.

    Both countries are heavily reliant upon US demand for their goods.

    A slump in Singapore's semiconductor exports contributed to the country's economy contracting by an annualised 3.2% in the October-to-December period, down from an expansion of 4.4% in its previous quarter.

    Emerging market support?

    With higher interest rates causing chaos in the US housing market and continued strains in global credit markets, pressures on the finances of the American household are expected to get worse.

    Analysts say this is likely to mean a cutback in discretionary spending on goods produced in Asia, mainly electronics and cars.

    Yet many remain reasonably upbeat that solid economic growth in India, China and the Middle East will help support East Asian trade from a US slowdown in 2008.

    "A slower US economy should hurt in the first half, although solid exports to the emerging markets such as China are expected to keep the growth rate at two digits," said Park Sang-Hyun, chief economist at CJ Investment & Securities in South Korea.

  14. #374
    Senior Member melvin's Avatar
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    Fed worried about growth when it cut rates last month: FOMC minutes
    Posted: 03 January 2008 0536 hrs

    WASHINGTON : The Federal Reserve was mainly concerned about economic growth when it lowered interest rates by a quarter point last month, with a dissenter calling for a "more aggressive" cut, according to the minutes of the meeting released Wednesday.

    "Real GDP (gross domestic product) was anticipated to increase at a rate noticeably below its potential in 2008," before returning to a normal pace in 2009, the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting on December 11 said.

    At the meeting the Fed lowered its base federal funds rate by a quarter point to 4.25 percent. It was the third back-to-back rate cut since September, trimming a combined one percentage point off the key rate.

    The December 11 minutes said the central bank once again had lowered its GDP forecasts for the world's biggest economy.

    Underscoring unusually high uncertainty in the economic outlook, some FOMC members noted the risk of "an unfavorable feedback loop" in which financial stresses stemming from the housing slump restrained economic growth, leading to additional tightening of credit that results in a downward spiral.

    "Such an adverse development could require a substantial further easing of policy," the minutes said.

    By contrast, the policymakers saw no significant deterioration in the inflation outlook since their previous FOMC meeting, on October 30-31.

    "Members generally saw overall inflation as likely to be lower next year (2008), and core inflation as likely to be stable, even if policy were eased somewhat at this meeting," the document said.

    Eric Rosengren was the sole dissenter in the vote to cut interest rates by a quarter point, preferring a deeper cut.

    "Mr. Rosengren dissented because he regarded the weakness in the incoming economic data and in the outlook for the economy as warranting a more aggressive policy response," the minutes said.

    - AFP /ls
    Now then they worried!

  15. #375
    Senior Member melvin's Avatar
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by Parchiao View Post
    Outlook for Asian tigers unsteady

    The latest economic data from South Korea and Singapore suggests that the slowdown in US economic growth could be starting to hit East Asia.

    South Korea's exports increased by a worse-than-expected 15.5% to $33.25bn (16.8bn) in December, as it saw its first monthly trade deficit since 2003.

    Separately, Singapore's economy shrank in the past three months for the first time in five years.

    Both countries are heavily reliant upon US demand for their goods.

    A slump in Singapore's semiconductor exports contributed to the country's economy contracting by an annualised 3.2% in the October-to-December period, down from an expansion of 4.4% in its previous quarter.

    Emerging market support?

    With higher interest rates causing chaos in the US housing market and continued strains in global credit markets, pressures on the finances of the American household are expected to get worse.

    Analysts say this is likely to mean a cutback in discretionary spending on goods produced in Asia, mainly electronics and cars.

    Yet many remain reasonably upbeat that solid economic growth in India, China and the Middle East will help support East Asian trade from a US slowdown in 2008.

    "A slower US economy should hurt in the first half, although solid exports to the emerging markets such as China are expected to keep the growth rate at two digits," said Park Sang-Hyun, chief economist at CJ Investment & Securities in South Korea.

    But China and India are also dependant on America rite?

  16. #376
    Senior Member melvin's Avatar
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by raincool2005 View Post
    watch out for oil related stocks, pick them when they are cheap.

    crude oil will hit $100 sooner or later... not in 2007 ? then 2008, those working in oil industry getting big big bonus this year again.
    Hit US$100 during the first trading day of 2008!

    Singapore shares weaken in morning trading as oil prices firm
    Posted: 03 January 2008 1326 hrs

    SINGAPORE : Singapore share prices ended the early session 1.53 percent lower on Thursday after world oil prices briefly touched US$100 a barrel, dealers said.

    At the mid-day break, the ST Index was down 53.06 points at 3,408.16.

    Volume totalled 800 million shares worth S$746 million in a market with 484 falling issues and 136 advances.

    Sentiment was also affected by the overnight tumble on Wall Street.

    US stocks plummeted on Wednesday as investors worried about the impact of record-high oil prices and a surprisingly sharp slowdown in manufacturing on growth in the world's biggest economy.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 220.86 points (1.67 percent) to 13,043.96 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite dropped 42.65 points (1.61 percent) to 2,609.63 on the first day of trading for 2008.

    On the SGX, City Developments fell 38 cents to S$13.72 and DBS was 36 cents lower at S$20.28. - AFP/ch

  17. #377

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    China December Trade Surplus Narrows as Exports Cool

    By Li Yanping

    Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- China's trade surplus narrowed for a second month as export growth slowed, signaling that the fastest economic expansion in 13 years may have peaked.

    The surplus for December shrank to $22.7 billion from $26.2 billion in November, the Chinese customs bureau said in a statement on its Web site today, lower than the $24.4 billion median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

    Exports grew at the slowest pace in two years, indicating that recent yuan gains, the cooling global expansion and cuts to export-tax rebates on polluting industries are beginning to bite. For 2007, the trade gap surged 48 percent to a record $262.2 billion, giving U.S. and European officials ammunition to keep calling for faster appreciation of the yuan.

    ``Slower export growth may help China achieve a soft landing,'' said Wang Tao, head of economics and strategy for Greater China at Bank of America Corp. in Beijing. ``China's economic expansion may have peaked last year.''

    Shipments rose 21.7 percent in December to $114.4 billion, compared with last month's 22.8 percent and the slowest since December 2005 excluding distortions from Lunar New Year holidays in January and February.

    After the figures were released, the yuan remained near the highest since a dollar peg was scrapped in 2005. The currency was 0.12 percent stronger at 7.2633 per dollar as of 4.23 p.m. in Shanghai, heading for its fifth weekly gain. The CSI 300 Index of shares rose 0.5 percent to the highest since Oct. 17.

    The yuan advanced 7 percent against the U.S. dollar in 2007, twice as fast as in 2006, partly because the central bank boosted interest rates to a nine-year high.

    Lenovo's Computer Sales

    Shares of Lenovo Group Ltd., which bought IBM Corp.'s personal computer business in 2005, slumped 23 percent in Hong Kong this week on concern slowing global growth will cut demand.

    Television sales at TCL Multimedia Technology Holdings Ltd., a unit of China's biggest consumer electronics maker, slumped 33 percent in November from a year earlier.

    U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet led teams to China over the past two months pressing China to let the yuan rise further and ease trade tensions.

    ``Pressure on China to let its currency appreciate faster won't stop because the surplus is still getting bigger,'' said Xing Zhiqiang, an economist at China International Capital Corp. in Beijing. Xing expects the yuan to rise 10 percent in 2008.

    China's economy expanded 11.5 percent in 2007, the fastest pace in 13 years, according to government forecasts. Wang estimates it will grow between 8 percent and 10 percent over the next three to five years.

    Polluting Products

    ``Government measures to curb export growth of energy- consuming and polluting products and to lower import tariffs have effectively curbed further widening of the trade surplus,'' the customs bureau said in a statement on its Web site today. ``Policy adjustments achieved initial results.''

    China reduced export-tax incentives twice last year on products including pig iron and nickel. New tax rules to slow exports of some other steel products that took effect on Jan. 1 may cool shipment growth further. Steel-product exports fell 14 percent in December from a year earlier.

    The tax measures were, in part, a response to pressure from trading partners. The European Union in November threatened to introduce tariffs to shield producers such as ArcelorMittal.

    ``Exports will decline further this year as higher taxes make Chinese prices less competitive,'' Liu Yuanrui and Shao Wenzhong, analysts at Changjiang Securities Co., wrote in a report today.

    Made in China

    Imports climbed 25.7 percent in December to $91.7 billion, maintaining the previous month's 25.3 percent pace of expansion.

    Government policy makers last month named inflation and the risk that the economy will overheat as its two main concerns for 2008 and said the People's Bank of China would pursue a ``tight monetary policy.''

    The policy is designed to slow the rate at which cash has been funneled into building thousands of factories, many of which may become idle should export demand dwindle too fast.

    Policy makers are trying to prevent the economy from overheating in the face of risks that global growth will stall and slash demand for Chinese-made goods.

    ``If exports slow in China, you'll see a lot of overcapacity, you'll see margins collapse, you'll see deflation and you'll see a lot of non-performing loans,'' said Huang Yiping, chief Asia economist at Citigroup Inc. in Hong Kong.

    A 1 percentage point slowdown in the U.S. would trim China's export growth by 4 percentage points and reduce gross domestic product by 0.5 percentage point, according to Ma Jun, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Hong Kong.

    Morgan Stanley forecast last month that growth in China's shipments abroad may slow to 16 percent in 2008. Imports will increase 18 percent, the investment bank predicted.

    ``A U.S. slowdown will hit China's other export markets too -- and that we think will likely have a knock-on impact upon China's own investment growth,'' said Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered Plc in Hong Kong.

  18. #378

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    STI today: 3,287.34

    where are you heading?????

    always the Light, .... always.

  19. #379
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Heading South for the Winter.

    ../azul123

  20. #380
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    WASHINGTON - The unemployment rate leaps to a two-year high, record numbers of people are forced from their homes and Wall Street nose-dives again. Such is the fallout from a housing meltdown that threatens to slingshot the country into a recession.

    The big economic question these days is whether the weakening economy will survive the strains or collapse under them.

    The odds have grown that the economy will slip into a recession. At the beginning of last year, many economists put that chance at less than 1-in-3; now an increasing number says it has climbed to around 50-50. Goldman Sachs, the biggest investment bank on Wall Street even thinks a recession is inevitable this year.

    Hopeful it can be avoided, President Bush and the Democrat-controlled Congress are exploring economic rescue measures, including possible tax rebates. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pledged to lower interest rates as needed.

    The idea is to induce people to boost spending, especially on big-ticket items such as homes and cars, and revitalize economic activity.

    "The recession gorilla is there. The question is can the Federal Reserve do enough to avert a recession?" asked Brian Bethune, economist at Global Insight. "We think the odds are close to 50 percent that there will be a recession. It is high no question about it."

    Much hope rides on the Fed. By dropping rates, it can act quickly faster than Congress or the White House could agree on and deliver an economic boost.

    "The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession," Bernanke said last week. "We are forecasting slow growth."

    Bernanke signaled that a rate cut would come this month. Many economists believe a key rate, now at 4.25 percent, could fall by as much as one-half of a percentage point. Such a cut would lower the rates that are charged to millions of consumers and businesses for many different types of loans.

    Analysts predict the Fed will keep doing that in the months ahead as part of a campaign that started in September, when the central bank cut rates for the first time in four years.

    Trying to put the fragile economy back on firm footing is the biggest challenge for Bernanke since taking over the Fed nearly two years ago. His job requires a deft reading of the economy's vital signs and keen insights into what makes people and businesses tick. It is their behavior that shapes the economy. And it is in turbulent times that the Fed chief needs to bolster public and investor confidence.

    Still, Wall Street is on edge. The Dow Jones industrials plunged nearly 250 points on Friday. Also, consumer confidence tumbled in early January.

    Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services, puts the odds of a recession as high as 40 percent. "There are a lot of headwinds and the economy probably has enough momentum to get through, but when things get rough, there are a lot of ways things could go wrong," Cheney said.

    The fear is that people will clamp down on the spending and businesses will put a lid on hiring and capital investment, sending the economy into a tailspin.

    By one rough rule of thumb, a recession occurs when there are two consecutive quarters six straight months when the economy shrinks.

    The National Bureau of Economic Research, the recognized arbiters for dating recessions, uses a more complicated formula. It takes into account such things as employment and income growth. By that measure, the last recession was in 2001, starting in March and ending in November.

    Tax rebates aimed at stimulating the economy were part of Bush's $1.35 trillion in tax cuts in 2001. They were credited with helping to make the recession short and mild.

    The current housing slump, made worse by a credit crunch, is weighing heavily on economic activity.

    Upcoming reports are expected to show the economy grew at a feeble pace of just 1.5 percent or less in the final three months of last year and will be weak in the first part of 2008. Consumers, whose spending is indispensable to a healthy economy, are expected to have tightened their belts.

    High energy prices, weaker home values that make people feel less wealthy, and a deteriorating jobs market all figure into more caution on the part of consumers.

    The unemployment rate jumped to 5 percent in December from 4.7 percent, fanning recession fears. It was the biggest one-month gain since October 2001, during a time of massive layoffs in the travel industry after the Sept. 11 attacks.

    Lawrence Summers, one of President Clinton's treasury secretaries, said the odds of a recession this year went up after the dismal employment report. He advocates temporary tax cuts and emergency spending. "It is now conventional opinion and many fear that there will be a serious recession," Summers wrote recently in the Financial Times.

    Martin Feldstein, who was President Reagan's top economic adviser, and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan have urged greater government intervention. Greenspan recently said the economy is "getting close to stall speed," and Feldstein has said his best guess is that the economy "has not turned down and it is still expanding, but very weakly."

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