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Thread: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

  1. #181
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    markets are reacting very negative to sharp rise in oil price at USD $90 dollars

    i guess our power bills is going for a hike soon, do expect transport fares to go up again... oil is going to kiss USD $100 soon once Turks hit the Kurds at oil-rich Northern Iraq !
    Last edited by raincool2005; 19th October 2007 at 02:46 PM.

  2. #182

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by raincool2005 View Post
    markets are reacting very negative to sharp rise in oil price at USD $90 dollars

    i guess our power bills is going for a hike soon, do expect transport fares to go up again... oil is going to kiss USD $100 soon once Turks hit the Kurds at oil-rich Northern Iraq !
    We need other source of energy! Better be fast or else the global economies will bleed to death and the Russian, Arabs and etc.. will be laughing all the way to the bank.
    Worse still, it might cause more war....

  3. #183
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by raincool2005 View Post
    markets are reacting very negative to sharp rise in oil price at USD $90 dollars

    i guess our power bills is going for a hike soon, do expect transport fares to go up again... oil is going to kiss USD $100 soon once Turks hit the Kurds at oil-rich Northern Iraq !

    explains why SPC is S$9.00 today..... another amazing stock.

    Mkt down 80 pts. But honestly I expected worse. 2nd liners not that badly hit though.

  4. #184
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by scanner View Post
    We need other source of energy! Better be fast or else the global economies will bleed to death and the Russian, Arabs and etc.. will be laughing all the way to the bank.
    Worse still, it might cause more war....
    do u know ? the rise in oil price has enabled the Russians to rebuild their economy. Countries like UAE and Saudi are now having cash reserves as big as China. Our Temasek Holdings/GIC are slightly lesser than them.

  5. #185

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by raincool2005 View Post
    do u know ? the rise in oil price has enabled the Russians to rebuild their economy. Countries like UAE and Saudi are now having cash reserves as big as China. Our Temasek Holdings/GIC are slightly lesser than them.

    Oh yes, the Russian is back on the world power stage.
    Countries like UAE and Saudi are on the buying spread all around the world.

  6. #186
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by NitroTech View Post
    explains why SPC is S$9.00 today..... another amazing stock.

    Mkt down 80 pts. But honestly I expected worse. 2nd liners not that badly hit though.
    it will correct down, this oil rally will be short-term.


  7. #187

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    All oil and related stocks powered up.

    STI closed down by 61 points. Can see buyers coming in but not in big waves.

  8. #188
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by scanner View Post
    Oh yes, the Russian is back on the world power stage.
    Countries like UAE and Saudi are on the buying spread all around the world.
    if u been following news, Russia is now not that friendly towards USA.

  9. #189
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by USM View Post
    All oil and related stocks powered up.

    STI closed down by 61 points. Can see buyers coming in but not in big waves.
    push up by some bargain hunters and intra-day shortists.


  10. #190

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    People are using the high oil price as an excuse to sell. There is no other news to sell.

    Standard stock markets phenomenon.

  11. #191
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by USM View Post
    All oil and related stocks powered up.

    STI closed down by 61 points. Can see buyers coming in but not in big waves.
    not all oil-related stocks... only SPC is the real one.

  12. #192
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by USM View Post
    People are using the high oil price as an excuse to sell. There is no other news to sell.

    Standard stock markets phenomenon.
    the big boys are waiting for this kind of news mah... see news below " Dark Outlook for stocks "

    www.cnnfn.com


  13. #193

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by raincool2005 View Post
    the big boys are waiting for this kind of news mah... see news below " Dark Outlook for stocks "

    www.cnnfn.com

    It is within my expectation. Traders / Fund Managers, etc are looking for reason(s) to sell after the market has gone up so much. Look at other markets like HK and Japan, all historical high.

    The next move is to look for good news to push up the market again. Just wait patiently.

  14. #194

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by USM View Post
    It is within my expectation. Traders / Fund Managers, etc are looking for reason(s) to sell after the market has gone up so much. Look at other markets like HK and Japan, all historical high.

    The next move is to look for good news to push up the market again. Just wait patiently.
    Eh, Japan ain't gonna go up by much at the moment cause the economy there is significantly tied to the US economy, about a fifth to a quarter of Japan's exports are to the US. China exports to US account for about a fifth of it's total exports, but the difference is that the levels of consumption within China are growing significantly. The problem with this is that people are split between thinkng that China's growth can/cannot offset a US recession.

    HK stock market rise is a consequence of China making moves to allow it's people to invest in the HK market, it is not due to any productive economic activity. Before the rise in HK's stock market, the price levels of the H shares were still in synch with global ecnomic trends, it is now out of synch like those of the A and B shares. Any bad news now will see it fall harder and faster than other stock markets, possibly triggering a global financial markets meltdown in the process.

    The signs are all there, it's just waiting to happen. The downside risk is way too much compared to the upside potential. And another thing about the money inflows to Asia recently. Money has been moving out of US bonds and into Asia stocks, and of recent HK stocks. All this suggests higher risk moves to seek higher returns, and it all means that there is a very speculative nature about the money flows. All we need is some event like that of the subprime market to unravel and you will see the bubble that has built up burst. When the loss of confidence sets in, we'll see that cycle that we have been talking about.

    Good luck to you all, if you are smart, move your investments to a defensive position now. Sell your illiquid investments and park them into cash.

  15. #195

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares


  16. #196

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by Parchiao View Post
    Eh, Japan ain't gonna go up by much at the moment cause the economy there is significantly tied to the US economy, about a fifth to a quarter of Japan's exports are to the US. China exports to US account for about a fifth of it's total exports, but the difference is that the levels of consumption within China are growing significantly. The problem with this is that people are split between thinkng that China's growth can/cannot offset a US recession.

    HK stock market rise is a consequence of China making moves to allow it's people to invest in the HK market, it is not due to any productive economic activity. Before the rise in HK's stock market, the price levels of the H shares were still in synch with global ecnomic trends, it is now out of synch like those of the A and B shares. Any bad news now will see it fall harder and faster than other stock markets, possibly triggering a global financial markets meltdown in the process.

    The signs are all there, it's just waiting to happen. The downside risk is way too much compared to the upside potential. And another thing about the money inflows to Asia recently. Money has been moving out of US bonds and into Asia stocks, and of recent HK stocks. All this suggests higher risk moves to seek higher returns, and it all means that there is a very speculative nature about the money flows. All we need is some event like that of the subprime market to unravel and you will see the bubble that has built up burst. When the loss of confidence sets in, we'll see that cycle that we have been talking about.

    Good luck to you all, if you are smart, move your investments to a defensive position now. Sell your illiquid investments and park them into cash.
    Hi Bro, a good analysis.

    We all know the US is the largest importing country. Most countries depend on exports to US such as Singapore, etc.

    Stock markets are cyclical in nature, i.e. what goes up must come down one day. The question is when?

    Money is flowing to Asia, yes, we all can see that.

    The recent saga - subprime, what happened when it was surfaced? The global financial markets turned upside down for a short period of time. Hedge funds took this opportunity to trash the markets causing panic selling. When various central banks intervened the markets and defeated the hedge funds. What happened now? Within 1-2 months, STI powered up to historical high. Whether subprime issues are resolved is non of the concern.

    Now Traders / Fund Managers, etc are looking for any news to selldown the markets again. With the oil price hitting the $90 mark and the tension building up in Iraq/Turkey, global financial markets reacted negatively. This is all about expectation, rational or not, I don't comment.

    Therefore, stock markets are cyclical in nature, so depending on where are you, either you catch the bull and became rich or caught by the bear and eaten up.

  17. #197

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by USM View Post
    Money is flowing to Asia, yes, we all can see that.

    The recent saga - subprime, what happened when it was surfaced? The global financial markets turned upside down for a short period of time. Hedge funds took this opportunity to trash the markets causing panic selling. When various central banks intervened the markets and defeated the hedge funds. What happened now? Within 1-2 months, STI powered up to historical high. Whether subprime issues are resolved is non of the concern.
    I would not discount the subprime event so quickly, the fallout is still in progress. While most economists agree that the condition of the global economy is still strong, thanks to China, there is still a fear that the after effects have not truely reared it's ugly head.

    Asia stocks rising is a consequence of falling USD strength, money flowed out of USD assets and went right into Asia, which explains the rebound here. The money that is supporting the Asia markets isn't infinite, there will come a point where it will stops and flow somewhere else. Example, the rise in the HK markets and fall in other Asian equities in the past few days can be explained by money moving out of certain Asian bourses and into HK stocks.

    The half percentage cut in interest rates should have had a positive effect on US treasuries, but we see a fall in value instead, this indicates that US Treasuries have been sold instead and likely due to the falling value of the USD, for the proceeds to be parked in some other higher yielding assets.

    If not for the fallout of the subprime thing, US interest rates would not been cut, US treasuries would not have been sold and Asian stocks would not have risen so quickly as they did in the last month. It's all related.

    There is also an IMF reprot that mentions that UK and EU property face a risk of a correction. The degree of the correction will not be like that of the US as the UK does not practice indiscriminate lending, but the prices of UK properties have risen too much relative to salaries.

    Spending is partly tied to property prices, people spend because they see themselves as better off due to higher property prices. People also spend more because of the positive economy. They think they are able to spend more as they think they are wealthier, the truth is that it isn't the case, they are spending today what they think they will receive tomorrow. Once this reality sets in, consumers will hold back on their spending. I was reading in the papers the other day that US consumption is 9 times more than China, if US consumer spending slows, China's consumption might not be sufficient to offset this slowdown.

  18. #198

    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    One other thing I left out, in that article i was reading, it mentioned that US consumers accounted for 72% of the US GDP in the first half of this year, tie this in with what I have reproduced from other news I have read, it does not look like a good 2008.

    Like you said, nobody knows when the correction will happen, but based on all of the information, it is likely to happen soon.

  19. #199
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Frens, the bear has arrived.

    Dow -366.94, Nasdaq -74.15, S&P -39.45 (based 19 Oct 2007 closing)

    Monday will be an interesting day for STI index.
    Last edited by raincool2005; 20th October 2007 at 10:27 AM.

  20. #200
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    Default Re: Subprime issue in the financial markets and your shares

    Quote Originally Posted by raincool2005 View Post
    Frens, the bear has arrived.

    Dow -366.94, Nasdaq -74.15, S&P -39.45 (based 19 Oct 2007 closing)

    Monday will be an interesting day for STI index.
    The day of the SHORTISTS have arrived!!! Woohoooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!! can't wait!! CRASH CRASH CRASH!!!!

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