waileong - should kick those who complained about HDB pricing out of singapore. camera they want cheap, lens they want cheap, AD photography they want cheap - all these cheapskates should be dump into the rubbish cute - can't stand them disgracing the status of Singapore.
I guess, now I know where you are coming from. You believe that HDB takes the cue from the resale market and uses it as a barometer to set the selling price for new flat. The resale market is made up of willing buyers and sellers, therefore the transacted price reflects the true and fair value.
If HDB is going to reduce and set the selling price of new flat at a more reasonable level, the property market will crash as a result. Those who bought their property at high price will suffer.
I believe what set us so far apart is your view that public housing is not a basic necessity and there is better alternative to HDB flat.
But here are my thoughts:
1)Why should HDB care about the resale value? Shouldn’t HDB just stay close to the intrinsic value of the flat? A few cases of selective buying of resale flats with good location (near to parent, near to your preferred school or your workplace), amenities, nice scenery and good view will leads to a higher transaction price. HDB comes to know about the high transaction price and decide to bench mark it and set the selling price slightly lower for their new flats in that location. Now the question, is it fair to let a few good units sold to a few people who can well afford the high price, determine the price for the rest of the average units?
2)There are concerns that the property market will collapse if the selling price is adjusted downwards. I have mentioned before, the problem we should focus on is that people are now facing negative equity and being cash poor. Our real wages did not catch up with the housing cost. How should the government (best in the world and being paid world class salary) solve the problem for us? Imagine, you are driving, your brakes failed suddenly and approaching a split road. On one side there is only one child (current generation) playing on the road, on the other side scores of children (next and future generations) are playing on the road. You have to make a decision, which side will you drive into? We are messed up, someone has to sacrifice, who should it be?
I have different views on some of your points, will response separately.
Last edited by Silence Sky; 4th November 2006 at 11:41 PM.
Those 66.6% who voted don't complain. Only those 33.4% can!
If there is anyone who can figure out the "intrinsic" value of a flat that everyone can agree with, I'd like to meet him.
"Value" is one of the most elusive concepts in both marketing and in economics.
I can't even give the value of a camera that will everyone in the world will agree with.
For instance, there are thousands of film cameras being dumped or sold for peanuts right now. An EOS 30 for $300? 10 years ago, they were being sold for more than $1,000! And that's 1996 dollars. The cost of producing and distributing an EOS 30 is almost certainly more than $300. And the value of a EOS 30-- in terms of the features it offers, the quality of the pictures it takes, its ability to give you happy memories, etc-- is definitely (in my view) a lot more than $1,000 in 1996 dollars.
It's one of the greatest bargains in the history of photography, yet people are dumping it for $300 in 2006 dollars. And people think nothing of spending $3,000 for a EOS 30D and having it depreciate 10% ($300) every three months.
But perhaps the instant preview, histogram, ability to capture pictures digitally without scanning, etc. all that are worth more than $300 every three months.
So I say value is one of the most difficult things in this world to agree on.
We know what value isn't. It isn't the cost. It isn't the selling price. It isn't even the price the buyer was happy to pay.
We also know that different people put different value on different things. Hence it's possible to negotiate, because I can give you what you value (and I don't value) and you can do the same.
We know that it's not possible to have a single value for something that everyone can agree on. Because value is what we think and believe something should be worth. And because we are different, all of us will tend to come up with different values for any object you can name.
I believe you can find out how much you think a HDB flat is worth. But I doubt that it will be the same figure that everyone else has in mind. And to say that your "intrinsic" value is the same as others' "intrinsic" value is stretching it.
On wages not catching up with housing cost increases-- sadly that happens everywhere, not just Singapore. In a sense, people expect that. Did you watch Superman Returns? Lex Luthor said, there's only one thing that they're not making more of-- and that's land. So if you want capital gains, invest in land and property. As early as you can.
Could you imagine it the other way? That more and more people are looking for property (which is a scarce asset limited by our land area), yet prices are stable or barely track inflation. How could that be? How can land prices not rise in real terms if every year, more and more people are buying land?
In economics, real prices fall only if you have productivity increases or if there's new technology breakthrough. There's no productivity increases in property (construction costs notwithstanding, as property prices depend mainly on location, view and other non-tangible factors) and there's no technological breakthrough to create more land. So how can property prices really fall?
The only time when property prices will fall is if S'pore experiences recession (eg Asian crisis) or if it's clear the world has passed us by. That is what you pay a world-class govt to avoid.
Last edited by waileong; 5th November 2006 at 02:13 AM.
"Value is intrinsically related to the worth derived by the consumer"
Cost is easy, its the land that goes up in price not the building
not sure about the prices but i see that quite afew study econs before? hahhaa....some of u guys sound so "econs" hahhaa....reminds of my econs lecture!
Anyway...is true that one spend half the life time (full working time) to pay up the hdb flat...but hey, the rest of ur life u just stay in there don't need to pay le mah^^ hahhaa. still is few times more exp than 10 to 20yrs ago but cheaper than some countries...more expensive than some countries...so I don't think we can just compare to other countries like that.
Probably for our GDP sake, they have to sell at this price?
DSLR newbie: 400D + Tamron 18-200mm + 50mm F1.8 (i simply love it!)
You should not have provided these links at this time, I have been trying so hard to put the issues of minister’s pay behind me and find peace within self. Your links has rekindled the fire in me again! Promise me, next time you want to pop up these links, do it sometime near the next GE, ok?
I think, the pioneer breed of leaders have this philosophy: Give me a chance to serve you, give me your support, let’s forge ahead together and you will have your Promised Land.
Life is tough but at the end of the day, we all enjoy and share equally the fruits of our labour.
The new batch of leaders: You want your Promised Land? You want to me to serve you better? Then, you better pay me world class salary.
But do you realise something, no people in the world pay their leaders that kind of money.
I am wondering, do our students still read Animal Farm? It is a shame if we have discontinued it.
Let me try to recap, hope I am not too far off.
In the beginning, with Human around (Colonist), the slogan is “Two legs Bahhh! Four legs Gooddd!)
When the Human is gone, the Pigs being the smarter one (Elites) took over the helm. They start to walk on two legs and become more equal than other animals.
In the end, the old and useless working horse was sent to the abattoir.
Last edited by Silence Sky; 5th November 2006 at 10:35 PM.
Last edited by Silence Sky; 5th November 2006 at 11:00 PM.
"The men in white tell us that garment subsidize the first time buyer $40,000.
I am wondering, what is actual cost for building one unit? If the building cost is lower than the selling price, how can garment claim that " quoted.
Cost for building 1 unit? u mean the cement and steel needed ? i think for a 5 room flat, its 30 to 35k bah.the most.
Well. Our Pay is really not catching up in time le. . . . . . . thats simple mathematics worth bringing up, any one care to give an answer?
Ya lo...Dont like the state u are now? leave loooohhhh, a lot of PPL(Talents )dying to come in le......such message seems to be stronger nowadays.
Look theres lots of MYANMMAR ,CHINA and Malaysian talents coming in. I remember someone in GAHMEN said that" Being a SINGAPOREAN is no longer a birth right, Whoever wanted to b Singaporean can be one."
sigh.We have to listen to my GAHMEN, help make the foreign talent feel comfy, but during stay in Australia for studies, some Ang Mo Shouted at me "Go back to ur own country"
If supply and demand applies to every where, then why it did not apply to your latter case?
Private developers compete in a different segment, building the up class property for the rich people. It is right for me to put you into a boxing ring and fight with Mike Tyson?
I am pointing out that, HBD regulates the market through various means, eg. Controlling the number of unit to be built, when and where to build, in order to maintain the current selling price. Like what you have pointed out, the CEO tries to regulate the market by deciding not to cut price despite there is no demand. The whole market is ineffecient as a result.
Last edited by Silence Sky; 6th November 2006 at 02:19 PM.
Last edited by Silence Sky; 6th November 2006 at 04:09 PM.
Demand curve can only tell you what the demand is at every price level. It cannot tell you why people refuse to acknowledge reality and refuse to meet demand.
As to the selling price, I've already explained what I believe their thinking is-- don't sell too far below market.
No doubt HDB flat prices are high (compared to Malaysia)-- but they compare favorably against resale.
I say again, do you expect that the govt should provide you a cheap HDB flat just because you voted P A P? Maybe that's the expectation in this country, but if you go to US, UK, etc. they don't expect any cheap housing from the govt, those who cannot buy will rent, and the homeless people live in shelters run by NGO's, churches, etc.
We're really getting into public policy now... lets just say that the times have moved. Deregulation, privatisation are now the way things work. In other words, govt should step back and allow the private sector to do what it does best (which is make things work efficiently) while govt concentrates on what it does best (which is to govern and ensure level playing field).
In other words, if possible govt should not run bus services, train services, phone services, electricity services, etc. These should be (and indeed are being) done by private sector players. In S'pore these private sector players happen to be GLC's, but in other countries, they are really private sector. The govt issues regulations on pricing, regulates the behaviour of the licensees, but as far as possible, does not actually provide the service itself.
But HDB is not the only player. And in fact, I think they are a lot less powerful than you portray. There is very little their building programmes can influence resale prices, which are mainly in mature estates, as new flats in Sengkang do not compete with resale flats in Marine Parade.
They can of course influence the market through other means, eg policies such as minimum occupation period, loan policies, racial quotas, eligibility for singles, etc. But these have nothing to do with how many flats HDB builds or does not build.
HDB announces how many units it intends to build well in advance, so that the market can be prepared. I don't think they do it to target any particular selling price for new flats. They may hold back their building programme when they think demand is not there. But did you notice private sector players also did the same? A lot of them just built up their land bank in the last few years and held back their launches because of the recession.
I don't agree the market is inefficient. HDB cannot just build X flats a year totally ignoring market conditions, and sell at price Y regardless of market prices. If the market is hot, it should build more than X. If cool, it should build less than X, maybe even zero. That is what any rational private sector developer would do as well. I do not consider that an act of trying to control the market. And such actions by the actors in the market do not make the market inefficient. Indeed, the market would be highly inefficient if the actors all built X units per year, regardless of demand.
Last edited by waileong; 6th November 2006 at 07:15 AM.
Those pigeon holes? We got ripped off!