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Thread: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

  1. #21

    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    One and only solution I to put it in two words , send less

  2. #22
    Senior Member Halfmoon's Avatar
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    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by mccm33 View Post
    One and only solution I to put it in two words , send less
    Spend less?

    Actually... I have seen much less expenditures during Christmas, and I expect CNY to be lower spending too....

    Have you noticed that the rental keep raising even when many businesses close shop?
    Last edited by Halfmoon; 15th January 2014 at 12:40 AM.
    Art is perception; Perception is art.

  3. #23
    Member 9V-Orion Images's Avatar
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    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    MAS: No risk of credit bubble.

    You all don't anyhow spread the "wrong" news hor.
    CS Aviation / Flickr
    Per aspera ad astra

  4. #24
    Senior Member Halfmoon's Avatar
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    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by 9V-Orion Images View Post
    MAS: No risk of credit bubble.

    You all don't anyhow spread the "wrong" news hor.
    Eh... we did not spread... the TS share a news report.... I believe "FORBES" have good reputation....
    Art is perception; Perception is art.

  5. #25
    Senior Member edutilos-'s Avatar
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    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by obfuscate View Post
    It's just too easy make such predictions, economic cycles always move up and down.
    Well aware of that. All you need to do is just sing doom or victory.. Sooner or later you'll be right and you can then ride on your success to the front page.

    Well one thing's for sure, he's getting noticed in every country that he highlights.

    http://manilastandardtoday.com/2013/...bubble-bubble/
    http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/m...bubble-says-an

    [edit]

    Anyways, he seems happy that his story has gone viral.

    https://plus.google.com/+JesseColombo/posts

    My Singapore bubble report is going viral with 276,000 reads and is one of the top stories on Forbes right now:
    Last edited by edutilos-; 15th January 2014 at 12:56 AM.

  6. #26
    Moderator diver-hloc's Avatar
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    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by 9V-Orion Images View Post
    MAS: No risk of credit bubble.

    You all don't anyhow spread the "wrong" news hor.

    Till a meltdown does happen... all are theories only...

    Anyone remember Olam International and Muddy Waters saga ??

    Scuba & Father... For Life

  7. #27
    Senior Member Halfmoon's Avatar
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    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Some Excerpt....


    GIC & Temsek


    Singapore’s sovereign wealth funds experienced severe losses in the Crash of 2008: Temasek’s portfolio plunged by S$55 billion ($U.S. 43.4 billion) or about 40 percent by March 2009, while GIC lost S$59 billion ($U.S. 41.60 billion). Temasek and GIC were able to recoup their losses quickly, however, when the world began inflating a series of new bubbles in an attempt to grow its way out of its last bubble-induced crisis.

    Household debt




    According to the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), Singapore’s central bank, 5 to 10 percent of borrowers may have over-extended themselves to buy property, as measured by borrowers whose total debt service payments account for more than 60 percent of their income. The MAS estimates that the proportion of over-extended borrowers could reach 10 to 15 percent if mortgage rates rise by 3 percentage points. A 2013 report showed that Singaporeans spend a large proportion of their income on housing, making it the 72nd worst out of 103 countries for this metric.

    The chart below shows which banks are the largest players in Singapore’s mortgage market, and therefore face significant risk when the mortgage and property bubble bursts:

    Last edited by Halfmoon; 15th January 2014 at 01:05 AM.
    Art is perception; Perception is art.

  8. #28
    Moderator diver-hloc's Avatar
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    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    I follow the old rule of...

    * Never spent more than you earn
    * Never take up debt you can't possibly repay
    * With Credits Cards, comes great responsibility

    Just had a quick look on my current HDB Loan... still owe them $7250+ (after deduction of CPF)... don't have a Car to cause me more headache... And I should be able to finish my home loan by end of 2014... hopefully...

    Scuba & Father... For Life

  9. #29
    Moderator Octarine's Avatar
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    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by 9V-Orion Images View Post
    MAS: No risk of credit bubble.
    You all don't anyhow spread the "wrong" news hor.
    That was to be expected, wasn't it? But instead of going into the details, MAS only answered at high level. Seems only the marketing department was involved. For a credible answer I expect more.
    EOS

  10. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by obfuscate View Post

    It's just too easy make such predictions, economic cycles always move up and down.

    As for any doomsday prophecies, it is not a likely scenario. A recession is highly possible, but not necessarily a depression. Singapore has been diversifying it's economy over recent years. Take for example building Singapore as a hub for healthcare services, further education and more places of attraction for tourism. When a recession hits, these recession proof industries are likely to grow and will provide partially compensate for jobs growth lost in other industries. Singapore's reserves are fairly sizeable too, recall the 1997 recession and why our currency did not take the same degree of hit as did our neighbours. Banks have also been strengthened through mergers. MAS does a wonderful job of regulating the activities of local banks, keeping a lid on what it deems to be risky. The industry was also deregulated in a way that allowed foreign competition, and in doing so spread the risks around and not just on local banks like in 1997. I believe that there were many other initiatives that were implemented over the recent years, many of which I do not know of.

    Having foreigners to contribute to the economy has it's privileges too. In a recession, foreigners will inevitably make way and will account for many of the job losses, so it is not like as if only Singaporeans will loose their jobs. CPF contributions will be slashed, the SGD will depreciate and tax incentives to companies will be dished out, this will help to give cause to large foreign companies to stay put. Some industries, and consequently Singaporeans will still be affected more than others.

    As for property, it is inevitabe that prices will plunge as foreigners will leave the country and demand for housing falls. Borrowing restrictions and payment schemes will be revised. If Singapore is deemed by foreigners to be attractive to live and work in, it will only be a matter of time others will come to take their place or these people may return when opportunities come about, and the property cycle starts again.

    Our million dollar ministers have plans, it has been demonstrated before. There is simply no way to avoid economic downturns. So for the folks reading this, make sure you have your plans as well. Do not over burden yourselevs with debt and make sure to save for the rainy days, or years where necessary, to ride out a prolonged recession. Of course, some flexibility in expectations is also needed as jobs that are lost may not be available again, a second or third skill set is required of all of us. Not a big deal if recession comes our way, I think we can manage it together.
    The diversification is debatable. Education has been a flop. Tourism and health care are both aimed at the very same income that would collapse if property market does.

    The Singapore government and Singaporeans love their high property prices. We will see how all manage when **** hits the fan and mortgage values crater, and property revenues collapse.
    Last edited by NazgulKing; 15th January 2014 at 12:00 PM.

  11. #31

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    Quote Originally Posted by Octarine View Post
    That was to be expected, wasn't it? But instead of going into the details, MAS only answered at high level. Seems only the marketing department was involved. For a credible answer I expect more.
    You won't expect them to tell us that they are reaping big profits off HDB flats either.

  12. #32

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by obfuscate View Post

    It's just too easy make such predictions, economic cycles always move up and down.

    As for any doomsday prophecies, it is not a likely scenario. A recession is highly possible, but not necessarily a depression. Singapore has been diversifying it's economy over recent years. Take for example building Singapore as a hub for healthcare services, further education and more places of attraction for tourism. When a recession hits, these recession proof industries are likely to grow and will provide partially compensate for jobs growth lost in other industries. Singapore's reserves are fairly sizeable too, recall the 1997 recession and why our currency did not take the same degree of hit as did our neighbours. Banks have also been strengthened through mergers. MAS does a wonderful job of regulating the activities of local banks, keeping a lid on what it deems to be risky. The industry was also deregulated in a way that allowed foreign competition, and in doing so spread the risks around and not just on local banks like in 1997. I believe that there were many other initiatives that were implemented over the recent years, many of which I do not know of.

    Having foreigners to contribute to the economy has it's privileges too. In a recession, foreigners will inevitably make way and will account for many of the job losses, so it is not like as if only Singaporeans will loose their jobs. CPF contributions will be slashed, the SGD will depreciate and tax incentives to companies will be dished out, this will help to give cause to large foreign companies to stay put. Some industries, and consequently Singaporeans will still be affected more than others.

    As for property, it is inevitabe that prices will plunge as foreigners will leave the country and demand for housing falls. Borrowing restrictions and payment schemes will be revised. If Singapore is deemed by foreigners to be attractive to live and work in, it will only be a matter of time others will come to take their place or these people may return when opportunities come about, and the property cycle starts again.

    Our million dollar ministers have plans, it has been demonstrated before. There is simply no way to avoid economic downturns. So for the folks reading this, make sure you have your plans as well. Do not over burden yourselevs with debt and make sure to save for the rainy days, or years where necessary, to ride out a prolonged recession. Of course, some flexibility in expectations is also needed as jobs that are lost may not be available again, a second or third skill set is required of all of us. Not a big deal if recession comes our way, I think we can manage it together.
    It's easy to keep your jobs.

    Solution: Just join healthcare or education industries lor

  13. #33

    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by Octarine View Post
    That was to be expected, wasn't it? But instead of going into the details, MAS only answered at high level. Seems only the marketing department was involved. For a credible answer I expect more.
    Of course they will deny. Conceding will only fulfill prophesy faster.

  14. #34

    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by obfuscate View Post
    Having foreigners to contribute to the economy has it's privileges too. In a recession, foreigners will inevitably make way and will account for many of the job losses, so it is not like as if only Singaporeans will loose their jobs.
    Sorry i can't agree with this statement.

    If you look at the number of FTs from 2008-09, i.e. the economic crisis, it is true that there is a reduction in the number of FTs in sg.
    However, the reduction all came from FTs holding work permits.
    Number of FTs holding employment pass and S-pass increased. Number of S-pass increased by 10%. And these people take high-end jobs most sgreans are aiming for.
    In the end, despite increase in number of FTs in high-end jobs, unemployment for residents increased 1.1% while the overall unemployment (FTs + residents) increased only 0.8%.

  15. #35
    Moderator Octarine's Avatar
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    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by hanzohattori View Post
    Of course they will deny. Conceding will only fulfill prophesy faster.
    Money and greed have no prophecy. It doesn't matter whether they keep quiet about it or not.
    EOS

  16. #36

    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by Octarine View Post
    Money and greed have no prophecy. It doesn't matter whether they keep quiet about it or not.
    Eh no. Just so in case you haven't figured out by now, pricing and value are often perceived and subjective. If MAS were to admit there's a bubble waiting to explode soon, the stock market will have a minor crash and if it gets worse than that, yeah the bubble will crack really fast.

  17. #37
    Moderator Octarine's Avatar
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    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by NazgulKing View Post
    Eh no. Just so in case you haven't figured out by now, pricing and value are often perceived and subjective. If MAS were to admit there's a bubble waiting to explode soon, the stock market will have a minor crash and if it gets worse than that, yeah the bubble will crack really fast.
    Yes, so best to keep quiet of course. Cash in today, let it crash later. Wise.
    EOS

  18. #38
    Senior Member edutilos-'s Avatar
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    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    I have to say that this post is argued with more reasoning than the original article linked. Gotta love flashy statistics --> conclusive statements in the blink of an eye.

    https://www.facebook.com/donald.l.fc...?stream_ref=10

  19. #39
    Senior Member Sion's Avatar
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    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Is it going to be worldwide or just Singapore related?

  20. #40
    Senior Member Halfmoon's Avatar
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    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by Sion View Post
    Is it going to be worldwide or just Singapore related?
    Maybe SG only... but neighbors will usually be affected...

    MAS will refute all they want, but this is kind of something I have long expected....

    Is HDB also guilty of controlling the no. of flats build to maintain the price?
    Art is perception; Perception is art.

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