Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 48

Thread: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

  1. #1

  2. #2
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Singapore
    Posts
    4,195

    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Can summarize? too lazy to click on the link.

  3. #3
    Senior Member UncleFai's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Singapore
    Posts
    4,429

    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by ManWearPants View Post
    Can summarize? too lazy to click on the link.
    Bubble, bubble, bubble... credit expansion -> wealth bubble -> property bubble which is also fueled by a population bubble (most of the houses bought on credit for speculation and rental to foreigners). Anyone of these bubbles bursting will start a chain reaction.

  4. #4
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Singapore
    Posts
    4,195

    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by UncleFai View Post
    Bubble, bubble, bubble... credit expansion -> wealth bubble -> property bubble which is also fueled by a population bubble (most of the houses bought on credit for speculation and rental to foreigners). Anyone of these bubbles bursting will start a chain reaction.
    wah so exciting. Must click and read!

    Last edited by ManWearPants; 14th January 2014 at 05:10 PM.

  5. #5
    Moderator diver-hloc's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Somewhere North
    Posts
    5,201

    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Ok... Noted...

    Ask the writer why didn't he predict the US Subprime loan crisis 5 years earlier...

    Scuba & Father... For Life

  6. #6

    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by diver-hloc View Post
    Ask the writer why didn't he predict the US Subprime loan crisis 5 years earlier...
    Probably they didn't have the tools and technologies to make these computations, I mean predictions, 5 years ago.
    [This space is available for rent]

  7. #7
    Senior Member UncleFai's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Singapore
    Posts
    4,429

    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    I happen to think that he is quite correct... and that our government knows it too... the question is on how to deflate some or all of the bubbles without actually bursting any one of them. That's really tricky coz there are too many moving parts.

  8. #8
    Moderator Octarine's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Pasir Ris
    Posts
    12,392

    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by diver-hloc View Post
    Ask the writer why didn't he predict the US Subprime loan crisis 5 years earlier...
    Maybe not this writer. But I do remember when I was back home in 2007 that my investment consultant warned me of the property and loan bubble in US and recommended leaving all investments linked to this. There were lots of warning voices.
    Now, with the experience of this meltdown and collapses it is indeed concerning to see what Singapore is doing: riding the same horse again, simply following the US. The European crisis has shown that countries with substantial manufacturing industry have an advantage. What does SG have?
    EOS

  9. #9
    Moderator Octarine's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Pasir Ris
    Posts
    12,392

    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by UncleFai View Post
    I happen to think that he is quite correct... and that our government knows it too... the question is on how to deflate some or all of the bubbles without actually bursting any one of them. That's really tricky coz there are too many moving parts.
    The property bubble is already losing size. Let's hope it wasn't too late. The comments about empty units is valid: a condo near my place has an occupation rate of ~70%, judging from the lights around 10pm.
    EOS

  10. #10

    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    The bubble are blown by people in Wall Street, who pay themselves big fat bonus

    When bubble burst, government bail out and the CEO leave the company with a golden hand shake

    Either way, they are day light robbers, who can legally rob you of all your money
    I eats, shoots & leaves

  11. #11
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Singapore
    Posts
    4,195

    Default

    Didn't you notice that despite of all the opposition. 6.9 is still gathering steam. SG must be using the growth to stem this bubble bursting.

  12. #12
    Senior Member Sion's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    新天地
    Posts
    4,768

    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by Octarine View Post
    ....a condo near my place has an occupation rate of ~70%, judging from the lights around 10pm.
    Use your lurid and futile imagination why the lights are off.

  13. #13

    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by Octarine View Post
    The property bubble is already losing size. Let's hope it wasn't too late. The comments about empty units is valid: a condo near my place has an occupation rate of ~70%, judging from the lights around 10pm.
    The developers don't want to release too many units to the market so that the price will be kept high and they will be able to get good profits from the sales
    I eats, shoots & leaves

  14. #14
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    sing
    Posts
    3,353

    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by Sion View Post
    Use your lurid and futile imagination why the lights are off.
    I think you meant "fertile" instead of "futile".

  15. #15
    Senior Member edutilos-'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    The Universe
    Posts
    5,991

    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by diver-hloc View Post
    Ok... Noted...

    Ask the writer why didn't he predict the US Subprime loan crisis 5 years earlier...
    He'll tell you that he did.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Colombo

  16. #16
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    sing
    Posts
    3,353

    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Warning is of no use if the target audience is mesmerised with delusions and deaf to sound advice. The herd instinct takes over.

  17. #17
    Senior Member Halfmoon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Hougang, Singapore.
    Posts
    4,590

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ricohflex View Post
    Warning is of no use if the target audience is mesmerised with delusions and deaf to sound advice. The herd instinct takes over.
    Greed play the major part.
    Art is perception; Perception is art.

  18. #18
    Senior Member Halfmoon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Hougang, Singapore.
    Posts
    4,590

    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by ManWearPants View Post
    Didn't you notice that despite of all the opposition. 6.9 is still gathering steam. SG must be using the growth to stem this bubble bursting.
    It will work in the short term, but if there's no long term to clear it... we will still "POP"..... Casino have already drained the local resources, and not sure how many foreigner will come here to plunge....

    Not to forget our public debt is heavy too.....

    Public debt:


    https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...k/geos/sn.html

    111.4% of GDP (2012 est.)
    country comparison to the world: 12
    106% of GDP (2011 est.)
    note: for Singapore, public debt consists largely of Singapore Government Securities (SGS) issued to assist the Central Provident Fund (CPF), which administers Singapore's defined contribution pension fund; special issues of SGS are held by the CPF, and are non-tradable; the government has not borrowed to finance deficit expenditures since the 1980s
    Art is perception; Perception is art.

  19. #19

    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by edutilos- View Post
    He'll tell you that he did.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Colombo
    It's just too easy make such predictions, economic cycles always move up and down.

    As for any doomsday prophecies, it is not a likely scenario. A recession is highly possible, but not necessarily a depression. Singapore has been diversifying it's economy over recent years. Take for example building Singapore as a hub for healthcare services, further education and more places of attraction for tourism. When a recession hits, these recession proof industries are likely to grow and will provide partially compensate for jobs growth lost in other industries. Singapore's reserves are fairly sizeable too, recall the 1997 recession and why our currency did not take the same degree of hit as did our neighbours. Banks have also been strengthened through mergers. MAS does a wonderful job of regulating the activities of local banks, keeping a lid on what it deems to be risky. The industry was also deregulated in a way that allowed foreign competition, and in doing so spread the risks around and not just on local banks like in 1997. I believe that there were many other initiatives that were implemented over the recent years, many of which I do not know of.

    Having foreigners to contribute to the economy has it's privileges too. In a recession, foreigners will inevitably make way and will account for many of the job losses, so it is not like as if only Singaporeans will loose their jobs. CPF contributions will be slashed, the SGD will depreciate and tax incentives to companies will be dished out, this will help to give cause to large foreign companies to stay put. Some industries, and consequently Singaporeans will still be affected more than others.

    As for property, it is inevitabe that prices will plunge as foreigners will leave the country and demand for housing falls. Borrowing restrictions and payment schemes will be revised. If Singapore is deemed by foreigners to be attractive to live and work in, it will only be a matter of time others will come to take their place or these people may return when opportunities come about, and the property cycle starts again.

    Our million dollar ministers have plans, it has been demonstrated before. There is simply no way to avoid economic downturns. So for the folks reading this, make sure you have your plans as well. Do not over burden yourselevs with debt and make sure to save for the rainy days, or years where necessary, to ride out a prolonged recession. Of course, some flexibility in expectations is also needed as jobs that are lost may not be available again, a second or third skill set is required of all of us. Not a big deal if recession comes our way, I think we can manage it together.

  20. #20
    Senior Member Halfmoon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Hougang, Singapore.
    Posts
    4,590

    Default Re: Dire warnings from Forbes (contributor)

    Quote Originally Posted by UncleFai View Post
    Bubble, bubble, bubble... credit expansion -> wealth bubble -> property bubble which is also fueled by a population bubble (most of the houses bought on credit for speculation and rental to foreigners). Anyone of these bubbles bursting will start a chain reaction.
    Just gotta try to keep away from being caught in it.. but once it started..... all will collapsed..... pre-2016 would be good... this is all expected by those who seen it coming...
    Art is perception; Perception is art.

Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •