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Thread: Investment Talk

  1. #61

    Default Re: Investment Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by ricohflex View Post
    Investment scams rely on herd instinct, false confidence and belittling the opinions of those who advise you to think critically about something.
    when Morgan Stanley came by in June 2008 with a sales team to the brokerage where i was working in, they presented a sales prospectus in which key events affecting the value of the product was banks in the US not failing .

    at the end of the talk i just raised my hands and said- oh really you don't think these banks will fail?
    宁愿遇见丢失幼崽的母熊,也不愿碰上做蠢事的愚人

  2. #62

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shizuma View Post

    when Morgan Stanley came by in June 2008 with a sales team to the brokerage where i was working in, they presented a sales prospectus in which key events affecting the value of the product was banks in the US not failing .

    at the end of the talk i just raised my hands and said- oh really you don't think these banks will fail?
    Hahaha! Oh my goodness! And what was their best reply?
    KF Photography
    Thanks for viewing!

  3. #63

    Default Re: Investment Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Blur Shadow View Post
    Hahaha! Oh my goodness! And what was their best reply?
    Stunned silence, some of my colleagues (i was a dealer, they were independent remisiers)...snickered. LOL ! Anyway the catered lunch wasn't too bad. We ate first and had the presentation later...heh.
    宁愿遇见丢失幼崽的母熊,也不愿碰上做蠢事的愚人

  4. #64
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    Default Re: Investment Talk

    I ever asked same question to some clown at a bank, who tried to con me into buying some toxic financial product. He insisted that the Lehman Brothers bank would never fail. Emphasised that they have been around for 158 years. I concluded he was a stupid idiot.

  5. #65
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    Default Re: Investment Talk

    So, if it was engineered on 15 April 2013, who was powerful enough to engineer the crash?


    Quote from The Paper Precious Metals Market Precariously Close to Diverging From the Physical Market

    A News Agency report published on April 16 informs that Carsten Fritsch, commodities analyst for Commerzbank AG, Germany, says that on Friday, April 12, futures for more than 1,100 tonnes of gold were sold.

    Last edited by ricohflex; 29th April 2013 at 08:21 PM.

  6. #66

    Default Re: Investment Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Shizuma View Post
    when Morgan Stanley came by in June 2008 with a sales team to the brokerage where i was working in, they presented a sales prospectus in which key events affecting the value of the product was banks in the US not failing .

    at the end of the talk i just raised my hands and said- oh really you don't think these banks will fail?
    It is not about whether Leman will collapse. It is about how the product(s) are being structured. Many men on the streets do not understand the underlying risk(s) of those products.

    One must always understand what he/she is buying. If you are unsure, always seek second opinion. Don't be shy or afraid.

  7. #67

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jedi View Post

    It is not about whether Leman will collapse. It is about how the product(s) are being structured. Many men on the streets do not understand the underlying risk(s) of those products.

    One must always understand what he/she is buying. If you are unsure, always seek second opinion. Don't be shy or afraid.
    June 2008 would be about the peak of the sub-prime crisis. If I recall correctly, Lehman Brothers collapsed shortly after...

    And I was happily enjoying my time in Switzerland then... Haha... Looking at the throngs of bankers rushing about along Bahnhofstrasse...

    Anyway, to be honest, not many people can understand structured products at that time. I was still a college kid majoring in finance back then, and boy was it rocket science! I won't even claim to understand the product even now. Other then the broad strokes (possible payouts, timeliness of the payouts, possible trigger events), I'm pretty clueless about the intricate details of such products too. As my team used to say in the past, leave it to the quants...
    KF Photography
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  8. #68

    Default Re: Investment Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Blur Shadow View Post
    June 2008 would be about the peak of the sub-prime crisis. If I recall correctly, Lehman Brothers collapsed shortly after...

    And I was happily enjoying my time in Switzerland then... Haha... Looking at the throngs of bankers rushing about along Bahnhofstrasse...

    Anyway, to be honest, not many people can understand structured products at that time. I was still a college kid majoring in finance back then, and boy was it rocket science! I won't even claim to understand the product even now. Other then the broad strokes (possible payouts, timeliness of the payouts, possible trigger events), I'm pretty clueless about the intricate details of such products too. As my team used to say in the past, leave it to the quants...
    Well I think nobody does.. I read last year that even four years after Lehman's collapse they are still trying to unwind the complex structured products and derivatives

  9. #69

    Default Re: Investment Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Blur Shadow View Post
    June 2008 would be about the peak of the sub-prime crisis. If I recall correctly, Lehman Brothers collapsed shortly after...

    And I was happily enjoying my time in Switzerland then... Haha... Looking at the throngs of bankers rushing about along Bahnhofstrasse...

    Anyway, to be honest, not many people can understand structured products at that time. I was still a college kid majoring in finance back then, and boy was it rocket science! I won't even claim to understand the product even now. Other then the broad strokes (possible payouts, timeliness of the payouts, possible trigger events), I'm pretty clueless about the intricate details of such products too. As my team used to say in the past, leave it to the quants...
    All eyes were on Leman during that time.

    But do you know that our local banks also have structured products on sale during that time? Many people also lost money from it. One of the underlying risks was - if any of the companies listed in the products defaulted, it will trigger a series of events such as closure of the producs. For example, General Motors almost bankrupt if not for the rescue by the US government.

    In other words, even if the remaining companies in the portfolio was ok but just because of one company that went bust would cause the early redemption of the product. Best of all, investors were not compensated for the huge amount risks undertaken. I heard that the payout was like 4-7%. In actual fact, investors were not compensated adequately. The salesmen just sold to retail investors by saying that the return was far better than FD, etc. That was why a lot of retail investors got burnt very badly.

  10. #70
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    Default Re: Investment Talk

    Don't talk so much theory lah....go straight to the point. Which stock/bond/commodities to buy?

  11. #71

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jedi View Post

    All eyes were on Leman during that time.

    But do you know that our local banks also have structured products on sale during that time? Many people also lost money from it. One of the underlying risks was - if any of the companies listed in the products defaulted, it will trigger a series of events such as closure of the producs. For example, General Motors almost bankrupt if not for the rescue by the US government.

    In other words, even if the remaining companies in the portfolio was ok but just because of one company that went bust would cause the early redemption of the product. Best of all, investors were not compensated for the huge amount risks undertaken. I heard that the payout was like 4-7%. In actual fact, investors were not compensated adequately. The salesmen just sold to retail investors by saying that the return was far better than FD, etc. That was why a lot of retail investors got burnt very badly.
    Oh yes. I am very aware of the sale of such products and the trigger events that would lead to early redemption.

    And I won't want to rehash the events that unfolded, and the subsequent anger. I just think that everyone has a share of the blame. For example, I really am kinda perplexed as to why certain groups of people would buy the products. It is clearly unsuitable to them. Of course, the sales folks would (and probably should) get the blame if they were clearly selling to the unsophisticated investors, but to the educated folks, well, you may not have majored in economics or finance, but hey, you should have at least checked what you are in for before investing in your money. Besides, which wise person would really dump all (or at least a significant amount) of their money into one basket (product) anyway?
    KF Photography
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  12. #72

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    Quote Originally Posted by ManWearPants View Post
    Don't talk so much theory lah....go straight to the point. Which stock/bond/commodities to buy?
    My friend, if someone actually announces that this wonder stock would soar tomorrow, you, as a retail investor, would probably be too slow anyway to enjoy any alpha from the news.
    KF Photography
    Thanks for viewing!

  13. #73

    Default Re: Investment Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Blur Shadow View Post
    June 2008 would be about the peak of the sub-prime crisis. If I recall correctly, Lehman Brothers collapsed shortly after...

    And I was happily enjoying my time in Switzerland then... Haha... Looking at the throngs of bankers rushing about along Bahnhofstrasse...

    Anyway, to be honest, not many people can understand structured products at that time. I was still a college kid majoring in finance back then, and boy was it rocket science! I won't even claim to understand the product even now. Other then the broad strokes (possible payouts, timeliness of the payouts, possible trigger events), I'm pretty clueless about the intricate details of such products too. As my team used to say in the past, leave it to the quants...
    Anyway Mini-bond styled products were actually reverse CDS-type (credit default swap) marketed to retail customers. 5% to 10% is around the premium a speculator can expect to pay for insuring a poor credit-rating entity against default. (Interestingly at that time there was also a CDS available against Tumor Sick Holdings defaulting...)

    Uh...how to explain. It's like on the selling side of insurance (retail customer insure product seller against risk of banks failing)...on the "short"ish end.

    Wait for Gold price to drop a bit more... buying gold in a fiat money environment is always bullish in the long run...heh...the problem is always figuring out how long the long run is.
    宁愿遇见丢失幼崽的母熊,也不愿碰上做蠢事的愚人

  14. #74
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    Last edited by ricohflex; 30th April 2013 at 07:48 PM.

  15. #75
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    Default Re: Investment Talk

    I predicted the GFC within 3 months of it actually occurring and a few others to a similar period, also the W.A. Property Boom in early to mid 00's.

    I saved and made many some $ ! It's easy if you look at trends and triggers for these events > also look outside of the box, you'd be surprised on what the signs are.

    Watch your stocks folks !!
    See my WTS items.. :) Any sales is by meet up face to face, payment is cash only.

  16. #76

    Default Re: Investment Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Dfive View Post
    I predicted the GFC within 3 months of it actually occurring and a few others to a similar period, also the W.A. Property Boom in early to mid 00's.

    I saved and made many some $ ! It's easy if you look at trends and triggers for these events > also look outside of the box, you'd be surprised on what the signs are.

    Watch your stocks folks !!
    Hmm.. ok.. looking at your equipment list.. I believe you

  17. #77
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    Default Re: Investment Talk

    Watch out. The advice is sound. Although some refuse to listen.

    Property buyers should consider future interest rate hikes: Khaw




    ...................................... 60%


    Hong Kong property sales plunge 60% -- with prices following
    Last edited by ricohflex; 11th May 2013 at 10:27 AM.

  18. #78

    Default Re: Investment Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Shizuma View Post
    anyway here's some interesting info-graphic, courtesy of Marketwatch.com
    Thanks for the info.
    Wrote my own program to scan financial news websites for words, then calculate a metric based on their frequency.
    Comparison of the metric with Dow Jones, Nasdaq and Standard and Poor's in two separate tests.





    Apparently this shiat works

  19. #79

    Default Re: Investment Talk

    or can read incorrect twittering on major news wire caused flash crash
    宁愿遇见丢失幼崽的母熊,也不愿碰上做蠢事的愚人

  20. #80

    Default Re: Investment Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Shizuma View Post
    or can read incorrect twittering on major news wire caused flash crash
    Ho ho ho, yes i set some of my feeds from twitter.
    I therefore support censorship from MDA. Hope MDA will police twitter on a global scale

    Added 2 more points tonight, at time=6 and time=7.



    Pay no attention to the time unit, I was just adding points whenever i'm free to run the program. Time=6 the program was run at 18.59pm tonight, while the indices data were obtained when markets opened at 2140pm local time.

    Time=7 was run at 2351, indices data was also obtained at 2351.

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