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Thread: World Economy to Collapse in 2030

  1. #41
    Senior Member sinned79's Avatar
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    Default Re: World Economy to Collapse in 2030

    Quote Originally Posted by An drew View Post
    ha ha, wedding photographer?
    why not? hahaha

  2. #42
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    Default Re: World Economy to Collapse in 2030

    Quote Originally Posted by sinned79 View Post
    start your own biz. small biz also can as long as it earns u dough for 3 meals and expenses. that way u need not fear retrenchment
    when the world economy collapsed. no one has money to spend, everyone is poor. How your business could get customer to allow u to earn 3 meals and expense ?
    Last edited by MichaelLee; 28th June 2012 at 03:58 PM.

  3. #43

    Default Re: World Economy to Collapse in 2030

    Quote Originally Posted by wong_se View Post
    when the world economy collapsed. no one has money to spend, everyone is poor. when your business get customer to allow u to earn 3 meals and expense ?
    I remember the hard times (SARs, financial crisis), I took many taxis driven by former Managing Directors and CEOs. I agree with wong_se, I think small business also hard to survive. Need better idea.

  4. #44
    Senior Member Kit's Avatar
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    Default Re: World Economy to Collapse in 2030

    If we believe them then we got nothing to worry about since the World is going to end this December. None of us will get to see the economy crash......

  5. #45

    Default Re: World Economy to Collapse in 2030

    Quote Originally Posted by An drew View Post
    I remember the hard times (SARs, financial crisis), I took many taxis driven by former Managing Directors and CEOs. I agree with wong_se, I think small business also hard to survive. Need better idea.
    I have a hard time believing that big time MDs and CEOs don't have any saving for the rainy days.. maybe they shouldn't be in high positions in the first place.

  6. #46

    Default Re: World Economy to Collapse in 2030

    Quote Originally Posted by hanzohattori View Post
    I have a hard time believing that big time MDs and CEOs don't have any saving for the rainy days.. maybe they shouldn't be in high positions in the first place.
    you will be surprised how many of them are living on credit... I personally know a friend of mine who is the finance director of an MNC... salary $40k per month yet most of his credit cards are maxed out.
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  7. #47

    Default Re: World Economy to Collapse in 2030

    Quote Originally Posted by Kit View Post
    If we believe them then we got nothing to worry about since the World is going to end this December. None of us will get to see the economy crash......
    Actually this is not one of those "end of the world" predictions. It is not a prediction, it is a conclusion arrived from computer simulation based on real life factors and hard facts. Unless conditions and assumptions used in the modelling change, this is almost an inevitable outcome. Already we can see the sub-prime crisis in the US and now problems in the Eurozone afflicting Greece, Spain, Italy, Iceland, etc. We should not wait passively for this to happen as we can improve our chance of survival and insulate ourselves against its worst effects.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...85O1B120120625
    Last edited by An drew; 28th June 2012 at 05:04 PM.

  8. #48

    Default Re: World Economy to Collapse in 2030

    Quote Originally Posted by An drew View Post
    Actually this is not one of those "end of the world" predictions. It is not a prediction, it is a conclusion arrived from computer simulation based on real life factors and hard facts. Unless conditions and assumptions used in the modelling change, this is almost an inevitable outcome. Already we can see the sub-prime crisis in the US and now problems in the Eurozone afflicting Greece, Spain, Italy, Iceland, etc. We should not wait passively for this to happen as we can improve our chance of survival and insulate ourselves against its worst effects.

    Moody's cuts Spanish banks on sovereign downgrade | Reuters
    Science is all about predictions. The predictions are only as useful/accurate as the assumptions utilised by the model. All models have multiple underlying assumptions of unknown factors that cannot be clearly quantified (at the time the model was devised), hence there is no such thing as inevitable conclusions that can be derived from a model.

    I'm not saying this particular prediction will not come true, but it is far from given that the model is anywhere near the truth. Scientists are not oracles, they do not have a magic crystal ball to reveal the future. They merely use their knowledge/skills/experience to come up with a model as close to reality as possible, while making a lot of assumptions along the way (which may turn out to be completely reasonable or bullshit in the end). Therefore good scientists make good predictions, but never reveal inevitable future outcomes.

  9. #49

    Default Re: World Economy to Collapse in 2030

    Quote Originally Posted by stuck View Post
    Science is all about predictions. The predictions are only as useful/accurate as the assumptions utilised by the model. All models have multiple underlying assumptions of unknown factors that cannot be clearly quantified (at the time the model was devised), hence there is no such thing as inevitable conclusions that can be derived from a model.

    I'm not saying this particular prediction will not come true, but it is far from given that the model is anywhere near the truth. Scientists are not oracles, they do not have a magic crystal ball to reveal the future. They merely use their knowledge/skills/experience to come up with a model as close to reality as possible, while making a lot of assumptions along the way (which may turn out to be completely reasonable or bullshit in the end). Therefore good scientists make good predictions, but never reveal inevitable future outcomes.
    If you drop a metal ball from the 25th storey, it will inevitably drop to the ground, unless conditions change (e.g. gravitational force changed, magnetic force present, etc).

    What I am trying to say is that this prediction is not a Mayan or Nostradamus prohecy but a mathematical computer simulation, hence the greater certainty of the outcome.
    Last edited by An drew; 28th June 2012 at 06:30 PM.

  10. #50

    Default Re: World Economy to Collapse in 2030

    Quote Originally Posted by An drew View Post
    If you drop a metal ball from the 25th storey, it will inevitably drop to the ground, unless conditions change (e.g. gravitational force changed, magnetic force present, etc).

    What I am trying to say is that this prediction is not a Mayan or Nostradamus prohecy but a mathematical computer simulation, hence the greater certainty of the outcome.
    Well.. in 1993, bunch of Nobel prize winners founded Long Term Capital Management (LTCM), using complex mathematical model to trade. And look where they ended up in.
    The problem is that the world is a complex system which makes accurate modelling nearly impossible.

  11. #51

    Default Re: World Economy to Collapse in 2030

    Quote Originally Posted by hanzohattori View Post
    Well.. in 1993, bunch of Nobel prize winners founded Long Term Capital Management (LTCM), using complex mathematical model to trade. And look where they ended up in.
    The problem is that the world is a complex system which makes accurate modelling nearly impossible.
    Agree, some things are hard to predict, like who will win the World Cup or when the world will end.

  12. #52
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    Default Re: World Economy to Collapse in 2030

    No need to think so far. 2030 is 18 years later. You may be dead by 2030.

  13. #53

    Default Re: World Economy to Collapse in 2030

    Quote Originally Posted by An drew View Post
    If you drop a metal ball from the 25th storey, it will inevitably drop to the ground, unless conditions change (e.g. gravitational force changed, magnetic force present, etc).

    What I am trying to say is that this prediction is not a Mayan or Nostradamus prohecy but a mathematical computer simulation, hence the greater certainty of the outcome.
    If you're equating predicting that a metal ball will drop to the ground to complex computer models predicting financial armageddon then I have nothing to say. The former can be predicted with unerring accuracy because experiments can be conducted to see if the ball would actually drop & all the variables can be predictably quantified through rigorous tests. The latter however depends on computational models that depend heavily on assumptions of present and/or future economic trends that are not readily quantified (hence the need for assumptions). It is not therefore reasonable to infer that the accuracy of any predictions from the latter will be comparably lower, & not a confirm/stamp-chop guarantee type of situation as you implied in your earlier post.

  14. #54

    Default Re: World Economy to Collapse in 2030

    Quote Originally Posted by stuck View Post
    If you're equating predicting that a metal ball will drop to the ground to complex computer models predicting financial armageddon then I have nothing to say. The former can be predicted with unerring accuracy because experiments can be conducted to see if the ball would actually drop & all the variables can be predictably quantified through rigorous tests. The latter however depends on computational models that depend heavily on assumptions of present and/or future economic trends that are not readily quantified (hence the need for assumptions). It is not therefore reasonable to infer that the accuracy of any predictions from the latter will be comparably lower, & not a confirm/stamp-chop guarantee type of situation as you implied in your earlier post.
    If your develop a computer model to predict the top prizes of 4D, TOTO or the price of Gold your model is probably not going to do you any good. But if a country has 1 billion dollars in reserve and borrows 100 million every year, it does not take a Noble prize winner or a supercomputer to calculate how long before the country will collapse. You don't even have to make any great assumptions about the interest rates.

  15. #55

    Default Re: World Economy to Collapse in 2030

    Quote Originally Posted by An drew View Post
    If your develop a computer model to predict the top prizes of 4D, TOTO or the price of Gold your model is probably not going to do you any good. But if a country has 1 billion dollars in reserve and borrows 100 million every year, it does not take a Noble prize winner or a supercomputer to calculate how long before the country will collapse. You don't even have to make any great assumptions about the interest rates.
    All I'm saying is you're oversimplifying matters to the point that the conclusion looks inevitable, but it really isn't because of a multitude of underlying assumptions that cannot be readily predicted & quantified. Even in your vastly simplified example of ONE country with 1 billion in reserve & borrows 100 million per year, even if the interest rate was known & fixed, you can't predict with great certainty which year that said country will go bust/collapse. This is because you would have to make many assumptions with regards to conditions & factors that can affect the final outcome.

    For example, current & future earning power of the country which would determine the countries ability to service the interest on its debt; current & future inflation rates which will determine the real dollar value of the debt many years down the road; current & future demographic changes, taxation rates etc etc. I'm not an economist... but surely its obvious that all this things are vitally important in determining the financial health of that country & the key thing is nobody can predict for sure how these factors will trend in the future. Economists & analysts can only make educated guesses, but the outcome is far from certain. If it were investing in stocks would not be an art but rather a mathematical problem with a "correct solution". Just ask those geniuses that came up with CDOs during the subprime fiasco.... its precisely because they made fundamentally wrong assumptions abt the nature of risk distribution through such instruments that led to the financial crisis.

  16. #56

    Default Re: World Economy to Collapse in 2030

    Quote Originally Posted by stuck View Post
    All I'm saying is you're oversimplifying matters to the point that the conclusion looks inevitable, but it really isn't because of a multitude of underlying assumptions that cannot be readily predicted & quantified. Even in your vastly simplified example of ONE country with 1 billion in reserve & borrows 100 million per year, even if the interest rate was known & fixed, you can't predict with great certainty which year that said country will go bust/collapse. This is because you would have to make many assumptions with regards to conditions & factors that can affect the final outcome.

    For example, current & future earning power of the country which would determine the countries ability to service the interest on its debt; current & future inflation rates which will determine the real dollar value of the debt many years down the road; current & future demographic changes, taxation rates etc etc. I'm not an economist... but surely its obvious that all this things are vitally important in determining the financial health of that country & the key thing is nobody can predict for sure how these factors will trend in the future. Economists & analysts can only make educated guesses, but the outcome is far from certain. If it were investing in stocks would not be an art but rather a mathematical problem with a "correct solution". Just ask those geniuses that came up with CDOs during the subprime fiasco.... its precisely because they made fundamentally wrong assumptions abt the nature of risk distribution through such instruments that led to the financial crisis.
    Some things are more predictable than others. I will have to agree that nobody except God knows with any certainty what will happen tomorrow. The sun may not rise.

    The collapse of the World Economy is not a particularly complex conclusion to arrive at. Many such models have already been developed and published in the past and already subject to much academic discussion. Much is it is due to environmental degradation and depletion of finite resources, if the world uses more that what is produced or replaced, the conclusion is inevitable; it wil run out.

    Since you have difficulty accepting the inevitability of certain outcomes let me put it to you in a simpler way, if we continue to use fossil fuels at current rate will it inevitably run out one day?
    Last edited by An drew; 1st July 2012 at 12:30 PM.

  17. #57

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    If you are going to keep shifting the goal posts then further discussion is moot. If you're talking merely about a finite resource such as fossil fuels then for sure it can be predicted fairly easily. But once again, your new example further supports my original argument - all predictions through modeling is fraught with difficulties. nobody, I'm sure even the authors of the original research you cited will state confidently "we're 100% certain the world economy will collapse in 2030" - which was your original point.

    In the case of fossil fuels, I can remember about 20 years ago all the experts were warning that the black gold will run out in 50 years time. Sounded like a reasonable assertion at the time, but now the experts are predicting anything for 50 years (again?!!) to 500 years, depending in whether you merely include proven reserves or include probable and discovered reserves as well. The reason for this discrepancy in past n present predictions is that the technological advances in the past two decades have allowed more and more reserves to be discovered & tapped in places we didn't think possible previously. So while the consensus is that fossil fuels like oil will eventually run out, nobody can really tell for sure when.

    I hope this helps you understand why I'm skeptical when people make sweeping statements about how inevitable certain outcomes as predicted by whatever models. All modeling are only as useful as the veracity of the assumptions that were used to build the model & nobody but god can know for sure. I rest my case.

  18. #58
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    Default Re: World Economy to Collapse in 2030

    There are people who get the predictions tight. Before they were proved right, others made fun of them and dismissed their warnings.

    Nouriel Roubini a.k.a. Dr Doom. His parents were Iranian Jews.
    He anticipated the collapse of the United States housing market and the worldwide recession which started in 2008 and ended in 2009.

    Marc Faber (also) a.k.a. Dr Doom
    Faber is famous for advising his clients to get out of the stock market one week before the October 1987 crash.

    Marc Faber says....
    Marc Faber : Always Follow what the Jews are doing | MARC FABER BLOG

    That is quite true. The late Jacob Ballas was a prominent share investor in Singapore. Simon Israel was top mgt in Temasek.
    Last edited by ricohflex; 1st July 2012 at 06:24 PM.

  19. #59

    Default Re: World Economy to Collapse in 2030

    given the number of so called predictions by the economist nowadays.. statistically one of them bound to be lucky..
    its like striking 4D.. I wouldn't call it skill.. just sheer luck

  20. #60

    Default Re: World Economy to Collapse in 2030

    Quote Originally Posted by ricohflex View Post
    There are people who get the predictions tight. Before they were proved right, others made fun of them and dismissed their warnings.

    Nouriel Roubini a.k.a. Dr Doom. His parents were Iranian Jews.
    He anticipated the collapse of the United States housing market and the worldwide recession which started in 2008 and ended in 2009.

    Marc Faber (also) a.k.a. Dr Doom
    Faber is famous for advising his clients to get out of the stock market one week before the October 1987 crash.

    Marc Faber says....
    Marc Faber : Always Follow what the Jews are doing | MARC FABER BLOG

    That is quite true. The late Jacob Ballas was a prominent share investor in Singapore. Simon Israel was top mgt in Temasek.
    You're right of course that there are people who get a better read on the market than most. Faber & Roubini are two I follow quite closely as well. Doesn't mean they get it right all the time too, in fact some surveys of financial analysts' predictions for 2011 found that they were for the large part hopelessly wrong - see How accurate are those annual market forecasts? - CBS News.

    Even Roubini has a mixed record at best - see Dr Doom - Nouriel Roubini Predictions, Economic Outlooks and Forecasts - Wrong Predictions and Correct Predictions.

    Caveat emptor as always.

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