Nikon VP on future of Nikon digitals

Pepper · 12th June 2003

Nikon VP on future of Nikon digitals...

http://www.nikonians.org/dcforum/DCForumID71/1719.html

The summer 2003 issue of Photographer's Forum has an interview with Richard LoPinto, Vice President for SLRs at Nikon, talking specifically about digital cameras.
On future offerings and full-frame: Full frame DSLRs (e.g., EOS-1Ds) cost about twice what the D1x does. He acknowledges that there is real appeal in having "35mm lenses of the wide-angle type that achieve a wider angle of view than what we refer to as the DX format sensor," but at the same time, "higher resolution and a wider field of view ... aren't the only features that make them work well." Specifically, he feels that most photographers would not want to spend double what a D1X costs to double their resolution and move to a full-frame sensor, especially given that it would have half the frame rate of the D1X in burst mode.

LoPinto gives a long song and dance about how you can interpolate the D1X image to yield 10 megapixels, but is less than convincing on that score. The bottom line, though, is that Nikon is committed to APS-sized sensors for the next generation or two of cameras. The reason seems to be good old market economics. Not enough people would buy a $7500 camera that could only take 1.5 fps to give Nikon a good return on the investment of designing the camera and starting a production line. He thinks that photographers would rather buy a DX lens (he doesn't give a price, but what I guess is something in the $1500 range for the 12-24) to satisfy their wide-angle needs than to spend $7500 or so for a Nikon-quality full-frame DSLR.

What he says makes sense. In the long term, good sensors will become cheaper and faster, so full-frame will become standard, but for the near-term the market seems to like the $1500-2000 prosumer and $4000 professional price point.

This got me thinking and I think he's right. Looking back at the history of DSLRs, I found that in 1991, Kodak released the DCS-100: the first DSLR that could be used untethered. A modified F3, the full system weighed 55 pounds (most of it in the backpack that held the electronics and hard drive), sold for $30,000, and had a 1.3 megapixel CCD.

By 1999, you could buy a D1 for about $6000, with about 2.8 megapixels, and now you can get the D1x, with 5.3 megapixels for $4000. This rate of innovation and the consequent fear of obsolescence is another reason why very few people will spend $8000 or so on a digital camera. If the camera must be amortized over a five-year lifespan, that comes to $1600 per year on bodies. Glass holds its value much better, so a sensible photographer would buy a more modest DSLR and spend the difference on glass, knowing that in four or five years he can buy the dream body for a much lower price and will have some very nice lenses for plugging up that big hole in the front.

shutterbug · 13th June 2003

but then.... I also read rumors that Nikon coming out a full frame DSLR in Oct...

Watcher · 13th June 2003

ERrm,
I don't think so, but hmmm, if Nikon does, I would imagine something like oh 14MP at the price slightly higher (about US$1k)as the Kodak one. This would put tremendous pressure on Canon.

Now, I would instead, look forward to a 8MP with 5fps, 10 shot burst with all the attractive feature of D100 like battery life, instant on, and a focusing system using the CAM1300

. With the price around a D1x for this model, it would make a great monetary sense with a DX lens.

Jed · 14th June 2003

Quote:

Originally posted by Watcher
Now, I would instead, look forward to a 8MP with 5fps, 10 shot burst with all the attractive feature of D100 like battery life, instant on, and a focusing system using the CAM1300 . With the price around a D1x for this model, it would make a great monetary sense with a DX lens.

I think you might be in for a seriously pleasant surprise.

Red Dawn · 14th June 2003

Quote:

Originally posted by Pepper
Glass holds its value much better, so a sensible photographer would buy a more modest DSLR and spend the difference on glass, knowing that in four or five years he can buy the dream body for a much lower price and will have some very nice lenses for plugging up that big hole in the front.

possibly the biggest lie of the century

once he buys the proverbial dream body for a much lower price, in 4 to 5 years time, how is he going to use his "very nice lenses" to plug up that big hole in front when they are all DX lenses unable to take on full frame sensors??!?!

Those DX lenses will only last 1-2 generations of bodies, or as long as Nikon is committed to APS sized sensors, if u believe wat was posted in the original post.....

after that, then wat? buy whole new set of lenses?

Wolfgang · 14th June 2003

Quote:

Originally posted by Red Dawn
possibly the biggest lie of the century

once he buys the proverbial dream body for a much lower price, in 4 to 5 years time, how is he going to use his "very nice lenses" to plug up that big hole in front when they are all DX lenses unable to take on full frame sensors??!?!

Those DX lenses will only last 1-2 generations of bodies, or as long as Nikon is committed to APS sized sensors, if u believe wat was posted in the original post.....

after that, then wat? buy whole new set of lenses?

You're up early...

SzennyBoy · 14th June 2003

Quote:

Originally posted by shutterbug
but then.... I also read rumors that Nikon coming out a full frame DSLR in Oct...

My source here tell me that it's gonna be a 10 Megapixel, same small CCD size upgrade to the D1X. It is expected to be announced close to the end of the year.

Watcher · 14th June 2003

Quote:

Originally posted by Red Dawn
possibly the biggest lie of the century

once he buys the proverbial dream body for a much lower price, in 4 to 5 years time, how is he going to use his "very nice lenses" to plug up that big hole in front when they are all DX lenses unable to take on full frame sensors??!?!

Those DX lenses will only last 1-2 generations of bodies, or as long as Nikon is committed to APS sized sensors, if u believe wat was posted in the original post.....

after that, then wat? buy whole new set of lenses?

This "lie" is a matter of prospective. It depends on how you value your lenses. As for the DX lenses. Compare the cost for following scenario:

1) D1X/D1H + 12-24mm DX lens
2) 1Ds

Out front, the cost for 1) is cheaper already. In 3-5 years time when a FF DSLR comes out, you "throw" away the DX lens, what do you lose? All the non-DX lenses are working, the DX lens has to be abandon. But you save money outright at the start already! So? Sell your DX lens and recover some cost back!

.

Let me ask you. How many DX lenses out of alll, do you think the Nikon DSLR needs? 1- 2? Yep, you abandon "all" your lenses when all you have are DX ones...

.

cyrilng · 14th June 2003

Quote:

Originally posted by Jed
I think you might be in for a seriously pleasant surprise.

Yup, heard that there'll be a new faster CAM.

Watcher · 14th June 2003

Quote:

Originally posted by Jed
I think you might be in for a seriously pleasant surprise.

I moderate my expectation so I won't often be disappointed...

Jed · 14th June 2003

Haha. I'm hearing good noises out of NPS. It should be good. And yes from what I've heard it exceeds those specs. But then, everybody seems to have heard things. But I'm smiling.

Avatar · 14th June 2003

Quote:

Originally posted by Red Dawn
possibly the biggest lie of the century

once he buys the proverbial dream body for a much lower price, in 4 to 5 years time, how is he going to use his "very nice lenses" to plug up that big hole in front when they are all DX lenses unable to take on full frame sensors??!?!

Those DX lenses will only last 1-2 generations of bodies, or as long as Nikon is committed to APS sized sensors, if u believe wat was posted in the original post.....

after that, then wat? buy whole new set of lenses?

DX lenses can be used for FF cams, just that they work towards an inwards range (ie. longer focal length).

Avatar · 14th June 2003

Quote:

Originally posted by Watcher
I moderate my expectation so I won't often be disappointed...

Dude, no moderation needed I guees, the new series is gonna rock the boat hard. Remember, their philosophy has always been "practicality and innovation"

Jed · 14th June 2003

Quote:

Originally posted by Avatar
DX lenses can be used for FF cams, just that they work towards an inwards range (ie. longer focal length).

Eh?

jimmyc · 14th June 2003

Quote:

Originally posted by Jed
Haha. I'm hearing good noises out of NPS. It should be good. And yes from what I've heard it exceeds those specs. But then, everybody seems to have heard things. But I'm smiling.

you got mail! pm that is

Jed · 15th June 2003

You got pm too

hongsien · 15th June 2003

Just wondering how many (Singapore) photographers REALLY need the high burst rates of some digital cameras, or high frames per second of some film cameras? I see many people overkill themselves, buying expensive cameras, but not investing enough in (good) lenses or other necessary equipment........I don't see the need for 5-8 frames/sec for a wedding photographer.........buy what you think you need for the job to be done, that defines which camera is 'good' for your working situation....if you know how to anticipate the situation you will know when to trigger the button.....just be patient........

Hong Sien

Jed · 15th June 2003

Hahaha. Here we go again

Couldn't agree more with you mate. But I for one do need high frame rates.

Avatar · 15th June 2003

Quote:

Originally posted by Jed
Eh?

I meant to say, the smaller image circle for DX lenses does work on film and FF bodies when zoomed in (eg. 12-24 @ 18mm). Not sure if this applies to longer zoom but it seems so for the first iteration

kongg · 15th June 2003

Hmmmm........knowing Nikon's "quiet" style, I think they have something big coming. My wish-->>>DSLR with F100/F5 body style, 11 megapix. At ard S$6000 price???Wishful thinking??

12th June 2003	#1
Pepper Member Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: West Posts: 249	Nikon VP on future of Nikon digitals Nikon VP on future of Nikon digitals... http://www.nikonians.org/dcforum/DCForumID71/1719.html The summer 2003 issue of Photographer's Forum has an interview with Richard LoPinto, Vice President for SLRs at Nikon, talking specifically about digital cameras. On future offerings and full-frame: Full frame DSLRs (e.g., EOS-1Ds) cost about twice what the D1x does. He acknowledges that there is real appeal in having "35mm lenses of the wide-angle type that achieve a wider angle of view than what we refer to as the DX format sensor," but at the same time, "higher resolution and a wider field of view ... aren't the only features that make them work well." Specifically, he feels that most photographers would not want to spend double what a D1X costs to double their resolution and move to a full-frame sensor, especially given that it would have half the frame rate of the D1X in burst mode. LoPinto gives a long song and dance about how you can interpolate the D1X image to yield 10 megapixels, but is less than convincing on that score. The bottom line, though, is that Nikon is committed to APS-sized sensors for the next generation or two of cameras. The reason seems to be good old market economics. Not enough people would buy a $7500 camera that could only take 1.5 fps to give Nikon a good return on the investment of designing the camera and starting a production line. He thinks that photographers would rather buy a DX lens (he doesn't give a price, but what I guess is something in the $1500 range for the 12-24) to satisfy their wide-angle needs than to spend $7500 or so for a Nikon-quality full-frame DSLR. What he says makes sense. In the long term, good sensors will become cheaper and faster, so full-frame will become standard, but for the near-term the market seems to like the $1500-2000 prosumer and $4000 professional price point. This got me thinking and I think he's right. Looking back at the history of DSLRs, I found that in 1991, Kodak released the DCS-100: the first DSLR that could be used untethered. A modified F3, the full system weighed 55 pounds (most of it in the backpack that held the electronics and hard drive), sold for $30,000, and had a 1.3 megapixel CCD. By 1999, you could buy a D1 for about $6000, with about 2.8 megapixels, and now you can get the D1x, with 5.3 megapixels for $4000. This rate of innovation and the consequent fear of obsolescence is another reason why very few people will spend $8000 or so on a digital camera. If the camera must be amortized over a five-year lifespan, that comes to $1600 per year on bodies. Glass holds its value much better, so a sensible photographer would buy a more modest DSLR and spend the difference on glass, knowing that in four or five years he can buy the dream body for a much lower price and will have some very nice lenses for plugging up that big hole in the front.

15th June 2003	#17
hongsien Advertiser Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Hong Kong Posts: 2,963	Just wondering how many (Singapore) photographers REALLY need the high burst rates of some digital cameras, or high frames per second of some film cameras? I see many people overkill themselves, buying expensive cameras, but not investing enough in (good) lenses or other necessary equipment........I don't see the need for 5-8 frames/sec for a wedding photographer.........buy what you think you need for the job to be done, that defines which camera is 'good' for your working situation....if you know how to anticipate the situation you will know when to trigger the button.....just be patient........ Hong Sien Last edited by hongsien; 15th June 2003 at 02:34 AM.

13th June 2003	#2
shutterbug Member Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Anywhere Posts: 521	but then.... I also read rumors that Nikon coming out a full frame DSLR in Oct...

13th June 2003	#3
Watcher Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: The heart of the Abyss Posts: 2,319	ERrm, I don't think so, but hmmm, if Nikon does, I would imagine something like oh 14MP at the price slightly higher (about US$1k)as the Kodak one. This would put tremendous pressure on Canon. Now, I would instead, look forward to a 8MP with 5fps, 10 shot burst with all the attractive feature of D100 like battery life, instant on, and a focusing system using the CAM1300 . With the price around a D1x for this model, it would make a great monetary sense with a DX lens.

14th June 2003	#11
Jed Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: UK Posts: 3,390	Haha. I'm hearing good noises out of NPS. It should be good. And yes from what I've heard it exceeds those specs. But then, everybody seems to have heard things. But I'm smiling.

15th June 2003	#18
Jed Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: UK Posts: 3,390	Hahaha. Here we go again Couldn't agree more with you mate. But I for one do need high frame rates.

15th June 2003	#20
kongg Member Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Ang Mo Kio outskirts Posts: 784	Hmmmm........knowing Nikon's "quiet" style, I think they have something big coming. My wish-->>>DSLR with F100/F5 body style, 11 megapix. At ard S$6000 price???Wishful thinking??